Woke up to find oil prices collapsing.
Oil, which had surged to $110 per barrel just yesterday, experienced a historic crash, plummeting over 30% in a single day, briefly falling below $84 per barrel, flooding screens everywhere.
In yesterday's article "Why Does Bitcoin Fall When Oil Rises?", we analyzed the relationship between oil and Bitcoin prices. As per the logic we discussed earlier, with this morning's oil price crash and the temporary cooling of inflation expectations, Bitcoin saw a significant retaliatory rebound, reclaiming the $70,000 mark.
This once again proves Bitcoin's characteristic as a "liquidity barometer." Once the "signal" of oil prices pushing inflation higher cools down, market fears of interest rate hikes ease, liquidity expectations subsequently recover, and Bitcoin quickly recovers its losses.
This rise and fall also reflects the latest stance of the Trump administration on the war situation.
Trump's attitude underwent a subtle but crucial shift in his speeches last night and this morning. Although he had previously强硬ly demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender," in his latest press conference he stated that the US-Israel coalition's military operations were "progressing very smoothly and ahead of schedule," hinting that the main military objectives had been "largely completed."
Simultaneously, Trump gave a hint of a ceasefire,直言 the conflict would be resolved "very soon." Although he did not provide a specific timeline for a ceasefire, this "mission nearly accomplished" posture greatly alleviated market fears of a "protracted war" and a "full-scale war."
At the same time, concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz were also significantly alleviated this morning. The core logic behind the previous oil price surge was precisely the market's worry about the blockade of this passage, through which nearly one-fifth of the world's crude oil transits. Trump played several cards on the supply side today: announcing plans to dispatch the US Navy to directly escort oil tankers, considering exempting some energy sanctions to hedge against the Middle East shortfall, and mentioning the mobilization of approximately 100 million barrels of crude oil from Venezuela into the market.
Simultaneously, G7 finance ministers issued a joint statement, indicating that countries had reached a consensus and were ready to release emergency strategic petroleum reserves at any time. With these multi-pronged measures, a large amount of short-term speculative capital began to close positions and retreat around the $120 mark.
Is Trump Really About to Cease Fire?
Having woken up early, the editor read quite a few military analyses. Most analyses believe: similar to the "just cause" for starting the war, what Trump is now looking for is a dignified "declaration of victory" and an exit for troop withdrawal to quickly and honorably end military operations.
From a military perspective, the US military's "decapitation" strikes against Iranian leadership in the early stages of the war, along with the large-scale destruction of Iranian air and naval forces, have already achieved a "major victory" on the military level. Therefore, in the view of some analysts, as long as actual control over the Strait of Hormuz is established, whether through US military or US security company intervention, it is sufficient to ensure the safety of the energy通道.
This "quit while you're ahead" mentality stems from the Trump administration's desire to avoid repeating past mistakes. Trump is deeply aware of the complexity of the Middle East situation and fears that once ground troops are stationed long-term, they could, like the Iraq war, get bogged down in endless guerrilla warfare and popular resistance, eventually evolving into a costly war of attrition.
What drives Trump's desire to wrap things up quickly is not just military judgment, but also more realistic "pain points" from the economic层面: oil prices and inflation.
The chain reaction caused by the surge in oil prices has put considerable pressure on the US domestic economy. As crude oil prices一度 broke through $119/barrel, US domestic trucking costs significantly increased. This rise in logistics costs was directly transmitted to end consumption, leading to a comprehensive increase in prices. Trump is well aware that if oil prices cannot be quickly suppressed, runaway inflation will directly threaten his political reputation and could even be attacked by opponents as incompetent governance. Therefore, releasing the expectation that the "war will end soon" to打击 financial market speculation, thereby causing oil prices to crash back below $90, is a key means for him to alleviate domestic economic contradictions.
Furthermore, this analysis suggests that the US domestic security situation and the midterm election agenda are also influencing factors. There are already signs of suspected "Sleeping Cell" terrorist threats within the US, with immigrants being arrested in New York and elsewhere for making bombs. This kind of domestic security turmoil triggered by the war is a push for Trump to急于 "appease matters."
At the same time, Trump is全力 pushing for the passage of the "Save America Act," attempting to pave the way for the midterm elections through measures like standardizing citizenship voting. For Trump, he would prefer to focus his energy on elections and domestic governance rather than lingering long-term on a battlefield that could erupt in terror attacks at any moment and is burning money every day. Therefore, he needs to find a balance point within the next week or two and withdraw troops as soon as possible.
So the framework we discussed in our previous article now has a new variable: the duration of the war might be shorter than the most pessimistic expectations.
If Trump真的 finds that "declare victory" exit in the near future, the geopolitical premium on oil prices will fade加速, the inflation narrative will cool down accordingly, and the Fed's path to interest rate cuts will reopen. At that time, the liquidity expansion logic Raoul Pal talked about will no longer be just a medium-term expectation, but might come faster than most people anticipate.
Bitcoin's rebound today might just be a preview.
