Written by: Ma He, Foresight News
On June 6, BTC briefly lost the $60,000 level, dropping as low as $59,130. By June 8, the price of Bitcoin had recovered to around $63,000. Although the price had rebounded several thousand dollars, the earlier breach of the critical integer support level continued to weigh heavily on market confidence and sentiment in the cryptocurrency space. Its Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 15, indicating the market mood remains 'Extreme Fear.' Most altcoins have moved in lockstep with the broader market, also experiencing deep pullbacks.
Is this the buying zone? Institutions, traders, and others have shared their views.
Glassnode Co-founder: $46k to $54k as Key Bottom Range
Rafael, co-founder of Glassnode, stated that Bitcoin has retraced roughly 50% from its all-time high. On-chain data shows BTC is currently trading near a significant support zone formed by the Realized Price Median ($64.1k) and the 200-week moving average ($61.7k). Historically, Bitcoin has traded below this level for only about 7% of the time.
Looking at long-term valuation models, below the 200-week moving average lie the Realized Price (~$54k), CVDD (~$46.2k), Balanced Price (~$40k), and Delta Price (~$35k) in descending order. Previous bear market bottoms have all touched this cost range before reversing, with CVDD considered the historically most accurate bottom anchor point. Based on current model projections, the $46k to $54k range constitutes a higher-probability bottom area, while the $35k to $40k range belongs to a deep capitulation zone under extreme panic scenarios, historically representing less than 3% of trading days.
However, as the Bitcoin market matures, the magnitude of cyclical drawdowns shows a narrowing trend. Previous bear market maximum drawdowns were 85%, 84%, and 77%, respectively, while this cycle has only seen a decline of about 50% from the all-time high so far. This suggests the potential for further downside exists, but a more probable bottom may lie in the $46k to $54k range. In the event of a subsequent rebound, the $75k to $79k zone will become the first significant recovery region, with greater resistance near the 50-week moving average at approximately $93k and the previous all-time high.
NYDIG Global Head of Research: AI Siphoning Significant Crypto Capital
Greg Cipolaro, Global Head of Research at NYDIG, stated in a research report that he believes the overlap between AI and crypto investors is far greater than many realize. Both attract investors seeking exposure to emerging technologies and excess returns. As AI-related stocks continue to outperform the broader market, capital flows follow, rotating out of the crypto market. Investors are also preparing for what could be the largest tech IPO cycle in years. Quantum computing, Strategy selling BTC have also intensified market concerns.
Greg Cipolaro noted in his report that several metrics are approaching levels historically coincident with major bottoms. Bitcoin's MVRV ratio has dropped to 1.2, and the percentage of supply in profit recently fell below 50%, another metric often associated with capitulation. However, the magnitude of this retracement remains relatively mild by historical standards. He pointed out that Bitcoin is down about 53% from its peak ($126k in October), significantly shallower than the 75%-90% drawdowns of past cycles. Whether the low is already in likely depends on whether institutional demand has structurally altered the cycle or merely delayed a deeper realignment.
Standard Chartered Bank's Head of Digital Assets Research: Bitcoin Bottom Is Almost Formed
Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that the Bitcoin bottom is "almost certainly in," and the current price range could be the long-awaited buying opportunity for investors. An important catalyst for this decline was Strategy's sale of 32 BTC, but referencing historical experience from late 2022, Strategy is likely to soon engage in much larger-scale repurchases, potentially 10 or even 100 times the amount previously sold. If such buy-side pressure is confirmed, it could be a significant signal of a market bottom.
Strive CEO: Bitcoin Touches 200-week Moving Average (Fifth Time in History), Previous Four Times Were Perfect Buying Opportunities
Matt Cole, CEO of asset management firm Strive, told CNBC's Squawk Box Europe that Bitcoin has touched the 200-week moving average (the fifth time in history), with the previous four times being "perfect buying opportunities." He also emphasized that Bitcoin fundamentals have "never been better" and views this touch of the 200-week MA as a historic buying opportunity.
Trader Eugene: Temporarily Left Crypto for U.S. Stocks, Won't Attempt to Catch Bitcoin's Falling Knife
Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel that he has largely exited the cryptocurrency market since May 13 this year, shifting his main focus to stock market research. He believes that compared to the current crypto market, the stock market offers greater depth of research, cognitive challenge, and trading and investment opportunities. Based on his assessment of the industry's current state, he expects to maintain this strategy for the foreseeable future, only continuing to monitor crypto industry developments without active trading participation.
Eugene further stated that unless the market presents a highly attractive risk-reward opportunity, he has no plans to return to the crypto market for now, and such conditions have not yet emerged. He believes the trajectory of the crypto market is diminishing its appeal as a trading and investment arena, thus he will continue to focus on traditional stock markets in the near term. Discussing Strategy, Eugene believes the associated risks are just beginning to surface. He noted that even if Strategy sold more Bitcoin recently, it merely postpones the problem rather than solving it. Until the high correlation between Strategy and Bitcoin is broken, he is not bullish on long opportunities for Bitcoin. Regarding the market bottom, he admitted he cannot predict it but stated he has stopped attempting "catching a falling knife" trades.
Trader Killa: This Is a Generational Buying Opportunity
Trader Killa tweeted during Bitcoin's decline on June 6 that this is a generational buying opportunity. On June 8, he stated that BTC has entered the "final phase" and "final extension," and he has deployed 90% of his capital. Additionally, Killa mentioned that the "protective buy walls" that appeared during last weekend's crash have not been withdrawn, and he believes the likelihood of quickly hitting those support levels in the short term is low. Killa is a quantitative trader focused on BTC, having previously predicted the peak of this bull cycle in May 2025.
Analyst Darkfost: Bitcoin Has Entered Extremely Undervalued Territory
According to analyst Darkfost's data, Bitcoin has retested and broken below the 4th percentile line of the Power Law model, entering an extreme undervaluation zone. Historically, it has spent only 4% of the time at such valuation levels. Darkfost emphasized that this is a suitable period for long-term accumulation, not a short-term price prediction.
Polymarket Data: 72% Chance BTC Falls Below $55k
Latest data on Polymarket shows the probability of BTC falling below $45k is 41%, below $50k is 56%, and below $55k is 72%. The probability of falling below $40k is 31%, and below $35k is only 21%.
Most market participants currently believe the probability of BTC falling to the $35k – $40k range is not high.
