Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)
In 2014, just one year after being introduced to the concept of cryptocurrency, CZ made the most daring investment of his life — he sold his apartment in Shanghai and "all-in" bought about 1,500 BTC at a three-digit price. 12 years later, if CZ had never sold, this investment could have yielded hundreds of millions of dollars in profits (peak return about $189 million).
Compared to his subsequent achievements of founding Binance and becoming an industry leader, the returns from this investment are insignificant to CZ. But from an external perspective, this idealistic "all-in" move remains CZ's most talked-about operation.
Yet, it is lamentable that even someone as resolute and decisive as CZ once missed an investment with potential profits a hundred times greater than "selling a house to buy coins" in a highly dramatic way.
Rewind 1555 Days: That Aborted Acquisition
November 9, 2021, was a sleepless night for the cryptocurrency industry.
Just the day before, the then high-flying FTX suspended withdrawals due to a liquidity crisis, causing panic to spread rapidly through the community. The musty smell before a storm was already permeating the market... The rest of the story is well-known: FTX collapsed, triggering a domino effect that plunged the market into a prolonged winter lasting years.
In a parallel universe, the story could have taken a different turn. In the early hours of November 9, SBF and CZ had issued statements indicating that FTX had preliminarily reached an acquisition agreement with Binance.
SBF: Hey everyone, I have an announcement. Things have come full circle. FTX's first and last investors are the same — we have reached a strategic transaction agreement with Binance (pending due diligence).
CZ: This afternoon, FTX asked us for help. The exchange is currently facing a severe liquidity crunch. To protect users, we signed a non-binding Letter of Intent, intending to fully acquire FTX to help alleviate the liquidity crisis. We will conduct full due diligence in the coming days.
However, the acquisition ultimately fell through. Just one day later, Binance officially announced the abandonment of the acquisition, citing "issues beyond our control", which became the final straw that broke FTX's back.
Did CZ ever seriously consider acquiring FTX? Was the hastily concluded acquisition farce a genuine attempt to help or merely a ploy to gauge the opponent's "health bar"? This may forever remain a mystery. From the outcome, CZ personally defeated his biggest competitor at the time, consolidating Binance's position as the industry's top dog.
But no one could have predicted that a seemingly insignificant "side bet" in FTX's asset portfolio at the time would rapidly appreciate in value over the next few years, its worth now even far exceeding the total value of the remaining assets involved in that unfinished acquisition.
Once a "Side Bet", Now an AI Focus
In April 2022 (this is the official announcement date; the deal was actually completed in 2021), FTX made its most important investment in the AI field — leading a $580 million funding round for AI startup Anthropic with a $500 million investment, initially acquiring a 13.56% equity stake, which was later diluted to 7.84% as Anthropic completed subsequent funding rounds.
That was an era when AI's potential had not yet exploded. Just half a year later (late November 2022, the month FTX collapsed), OpenAI's ChatGPT burst onto the scene, irreversibly ushering the world into the "Age of Exploration" for AI. Anthropic, with its Claude series of products (especially the programming-oriented Claude Code), repeatedly amazed the world, gradually becoming one of the most dazzling star companies.
As Claude continuously iterated, Anthropic's valuation also kept rising. Capital frantically waved banknotes, desperate to secure a berth on Anthropic's ship sailing towards IPO. The latest market rumor is that Anthropic is in the final stages of a new massive funding round, expected to exceed $20 billion (originally planned to raise $10 billion, but investor demand far exceeded expectations, potentially doubling the final amount), with a valuation possibly as high as $350 billion. The deal could be completed as early as this week.
Calculated at the latest valuation of $350 billion, the value of the Anthropic equity once held by FTX would be approximately $27.44 billion, enough to cover the reserve shortfall that led to its bankruptcy several times over... But history has happened, and the outcome is settled.
It's hard not to marvel at SBF being a rare venture capital genius (besides Anthropic, he also invested in the now-hot Cursor in its seed round), but clearly he was not a qualified business operator, especially lacking in risk control. CZ's profile is the complete opposite; he is an absolute master at operating a business. Binance's dominance is inseparable from his多次正确的战略决策 (many correct strategic decisions). But CZ also often positions himself not as a traditional investor solely pursuing returns; he doesn't trade coins and prefers to be a builder of the industry.
A Messy Ending: This Should Have Been the Best Intersection of Crypto and AI
You might wonder, what happened to those FTX equity shares?
The ending is not complicated. After FTX's bankruptcy, all assets, including the Anthropic equity, were handled by the FTX bankruptcy estate management team. In February 2024, the court approved the team's request to sell these shares; in March and June of the same year, the FTX bankruptcy team sold 29.5 million shares for $884 million and 15 million shares for $450 million respectively, totaling over $1.3 billion sold.
As for the buyers of these shares, they were primarily ATIC Third International Investment from Abu Dhabi, and traditional financial institutions from Wall Street like Jane Street and Fidelity. In other words, no crypto companies got a share of the pie.
Whether these shares were deliberately sold cheaply, or whether there was利益输送 (benefit transfer) under the guise of bankruptcy liquidation, is no longer important for the crypto industry.
This should have been the best intersection of Crypto and AI. In another worldline, whether these shares were in the hands of SBF or CZ, if leading companies in the crypto world had some say in the development of one of AI's most successful companies, there could have been more innovative attempts around Crypto + AI, potentially yielding unexpected fruits.
It's not just CZ who is slapping his thigh in regret.
