# Top Articoli collegati

Il Centro Notizie HTX fornisce gli articoli più recenti e le analisi più approfondite su "Top", coprendo tendenze di mercato, aggiornamenti sui progetti, sviluppi tecnologici e politiche normative nel settore crypto.

The Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Has Never Disappeared, It Just 'Changed Shape'

Has Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle Disappeared? The article argues that the fundamental 4-year cycle driven by halving events remains intact but its manifestation has changed due to a shift in the dominant buyer profile. The cycle peaked in October 2025, aligning with historical post-halving timelines. However, classic on-chain top indicators (MVRV, Pi Cycle, NUPL, etc.) failed to signal the peak. This is because these metrics are designed to detect retail FOMO, which was largely absent in Bitcoin this cycle. Retail capital was systematically drained by memecoins and high-FDV, low-float VC token launches before it could fuel a parabolic Bitcoin finale. Instead, institutional buyers (spot Bitcoin ETFs, corporate treasuries like MicroStrategy) became the marginal buyers. Their steady, programmatic accumulation created a strong but less volatile uptrend that didn't trigger traditional euphoria signals. The cycle's structure persists: a post-halving supply shock, a peak roughly 480-550 days later, and a bottom approximately one year after the peak (projected for Q3/Q4 2026). Bear market drawdowns are becoming shallower (projected 50-65% vs. past 78-86%) as institutional ownership matures. The article concludes that the cycle's timing remains the most reliable signal, while the tools to identify its phases must evolve with the market's structure.

marsbit06/09 08:24

The Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Has Never Disappeared, It Just 'Changed Shape'

marsbit06/09 08:24

Bitcoin price dips as shutdown odds hit 67% – Is a local top ahead?

Bitcoin's price has dipped below $70k amid growing fears of a potential U.S. government shutdown, with traders pricing in a 67% chance of a shutdown beginning February 14th. Despite a 30%+ drop from its mid-January peak of $97k, new capital inflows have turned negative, indicating weak investor appetite. Stablecoin metrics, particularly USDT's declining market cap, suggest tightening liquidity and reduced risk sentiment. This mirrors previous shutdown cycles where liquidity drained and crypto assets fell significantly. Macro fears, including Fed policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, are outweighing dip-buying interest. Current conditions point to a potential local top rather than a durable support zone, with Bitcoin remaining vulnerable to further downside until liquidity stabilizes and confidence returns.

ambcrypto02/11 10:01

Bitcoin price dips as shutdown odds hit 67% – Is a local top ahead?

ambcrypto02/11 10:01

Is Bitcoin’s top still ahead? Decoding impact of equity divergence

Bitcoin is experiencing bearish pressure and a short-term downtrend, with market sentiment suggesting a local top may be forming. However, its historical correlation with U.S. equity markets like the S&P 500 presents a potential upside opportunity. Since September 2025, Bitcoin has diverged from equities, declining roughly 30% while major indices gained. This underperformance may narrow if Bitcoin catches up through upward price movement. Key challenges include persistent capital outflows, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing $4.68 billion in net sales since November. Despite this, Bitcoin's price has held relatively stable, declining only about $2,900, supported by strong hashrate levels and miner accumulation. A significant risk is a $7 billion outflow from stablecoins, reflecting reduced risk appetite and posing a downside threat similar to the 2021 Terra-Luna collapse. Overall, Bitcoin could be poised for a rebound aligned with equities, but stablecoin outflows remain a critical near-term risk.

ambcrypto01/27 19:02

Is Bitcoin’s top still ahead? Decoding impact of equity divergence

ambcrypto01/27 19:02

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