Wall Street Unanimously Bullish: ASML's Capacity Surge, The 'Peak Theory' for Memory Can Be Put to Rest
Wall Street is collectively bullish on ASML after the company reported a far-better-than-expected Q2 and significantly raised its full-year guidance, while providing a rare 2027-2028 capacity expansion roadmap. Key financials surpassed consensus: Q2 revenue of €9.3B beat estimates, with gross margin at 54%. The company raised its 2026 revenue outlook to €43-€45B and expects Q3 revenue of €11-€12B.
Most notably, management outlined aggressive capacity increases for both Low-NA EUV and immersion DUV systems. EUV capacity is projected to reach ~85 units in 2027 (up ~30% from 2026) and potentially ~110 in 2028. DUV capacity is set to rise to ~169 units in 2027 and ~220 in 2028. These targets exceed prior market expectations, leading analysts to significantly revise up 2028 earnings estimates, with JPMorgan suggesting EPS could surpass €65.
Major banks including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Barclays maintained Buy/Overweight ratings. Analysts view the roadmap as a direct rebuttal to narratives about an AI-driven demand peak or an imminent memory price top. ASML stated that AI demand is accelerating expansion in both logic (for nodes like 2nm) and memory segments (driven by DDR/HBM shortages and the transition to more EUV-intensive nodes like 1c/1d DRAM). This structural shift, alongside the high wafer intensity of HBM production, is seen extending the memory upcycle.
While most reactions were positive, some nuance existed on whether the 2027 EUV guidance was sufficiently aggressive versus heightened expectations. Overall, the results are seen as validating sustained AI-driven demand and ASML's unrivaled position as the key beneficiary of the industry's advanced node transition.
链捕手07/15 14:57
