BTC Market Pulse: Week 23
Bitcoin is sending cautionary signals across all market layers this week. On-chain, transfer volume and fees increased, but capital inflows have nearly stopped with realized cap growth collapsing to near-zero, indicating no fresh money is entering. Active addresses remain flat.
Spot markets show sellers in control, with the CVD flipping deeply negative and momentum declining. Volume is being used for selling, not accumulation. Derivatives reflect unease: futures open interest is flat but the cost to hold longs jumped, and perpetual CVD deepened negative. Options open interest dropped and skew decreased, though volatility expectations remain elevated.
ETF flows turned strongly bearish, with net outflows nearly doubling to $1.3B as institutions reduced exposure urgently. Profitability metrics deteriorated: only 59.8% of supply is in profit, realized losses dominate on-chain activity, and net unrealized losses deepened.
In summary, Bitcoin is in a distribution/consolidation phase. On-chain activity is structurally healthy, but capital inflows have stalled, spot selling pressure is building, and institutional money is exiting via ETFs at an accelerating pace. The path of least resistance remains sideways-to-lower until realized cap growth resumes and spot CVD turns positive.
insights.glassnode06/02 12:10
