# Safe Haven Articoli collegati

Crypto Funds Extend Three-Week Run With $1B Inflows Despite Geopolitical Stress

bitcoinist11 h fa

The Two Weeks When the King of Safe Havens Failed, Bitcoin Quietly Outperformed Everything

The article analyzes the divergent performance of gold and Bitcoin during a two-week period following a military strike by the US and Israel on Iran. Contrary to traditional expectations, gold, often seen as a safe-haven asset, dropped by nearly 10% from its peak, while Bitcoin surged over 20% from its low, outperforming gold, the S&P 500, and Nasdaq. Gold’s decline is attributed to rising oil prices due to the conflict, which heightened inflation expectations and reduced the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, leading to outflows. Additionally, potential profit-taking by central banks and logistical challenges in moving physical gold during wartime weakened its appeal. Bitcoin’s rise is explained by a combination of factors: technical oversold rebound, 24/7 trading availability during market closures, renewed inflows (e.g., U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw significant inflows while gold ETFs experienced outflows), and its portability advantage in conflict zones, as evidenced by a 700% surge in crypto outflows from Iran. However, Bitcoin’s performance does not fully establish it as a traditional safe haven; it instead functions as a highly liquid, portable asset that absorbs shocks when other markets are closed. The article concludes that the concept of "safe haven" is evolving—gold struggles when inflation and利率 constraints dominate, while Bitcoin benefits from structural and situational advantages, though its identity remains complex and context-dependent.

marsbit17 h fa

Bitcoin in the Flames of War: Reviewing Past Geopolitical Conflicts, Which Stage Is the Crypto Market In Now?

Bitcoin in the Crossfire: A Review of Geopolitical Conflicts and the Crypto Market's Current Phase The article examines Bitcoin's price behavior during four major geopolitical conflicts, analyzing its evolving role as a risk or safe-haven asset. Following a joint U.S.-Israel military strike on Iran in February 2026, Bitcoin plunged 6% in 45 minutes, erasing $128 billion from the crypto market. This initial panic sell-off was attributed to crypto's 24/7 market absorbing pressure while traditional markets were closed. The analysis compares this event to three past conflicts: * **Russia-Ukraine (2022):** An initial 8% crash was followed by a 27% surge within a month, driven by demand from citizens in both countries seeking financial alternatives. However, this geopolitical premium was later erased by macro bearish trends. * **Israel-Gaza (2023):** The market was largely indifferent, with Bitcoin falling only 0.3% on the first day. Its price was soon dominated by internal catalysts like ETF approval expectations, showing regional conflicts had minimal lasting impact. * **India-Pakistan (2025):** A brief, shallow dip was quickly reversed after a ceasefire was announced, leaving almost no trace on the Bitcoin chart. The article concludes that geopolitical events now leave only temporary marks on Bitcoin's price unless they fundamentally disrupt global macro conditions, particularly energy supplies and monetary policy. The key variable for the Iran conflict is the price of oil. If the Strait of Hormuz is not blocked and oil prices stabilize, the war's impact on Bitcoin is expected to fade quickly, following the historical pattern of sharp decline, rebound, and digestion. The current market is seen as being in the digestion phase.

Odaily星球日报17 h fa

$100K Bitcoin? Prediction Market Odds Climb To 40%

Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a significant reversal with $53 million in daily inflows, pushing monthly totals past $1.16 billion after months of outflows. Bitcoin’s price rose to around $70,850, with technical indicators turning bullish. Prediction markets now assign a 40-50% chance of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by 2027. Geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns have fueled interest in Bitcoin as a potential safe-haven asset, despite outflows from gold and stock ETFs. Technically, Bitcoin is testing key support levels, with $70,000 being crucial for maintaining bullish momentum toward higher psychological targets.

bitcoinist2 giorni fa 01:01

Bitcoin and Gold Diverge as Iran Conflict Shifts ETF Flows

According to a JPMorgan investor note, the traditional correlation between Bitcoin and gold has significantly broken down due to the Iran conflict, with the two safe-haven assets moving in opposite directions. While geopolitical instability typically drives unified flows into havens, capital is now shifting toward Bitcoin. Since February 27, major gold ETFs have seen outflows of about 2.7% of assets under management. In contrast, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded inflows of approximately 1.5% in the same period. This reversal indicates growing institutional preference for Bitcoin ETFs over gold, despite crypto's higher volatility. JPMorgan also noted rising short interest in IBIT amid the conflict, even as ETF inflows continue.

TheNewsCrypto03/13 12:59

When Asia-Pacific Stock Markets Plunge Below Circuit Breaker, Why Does Bitcoin Stand Out?

Amid escalating Middle East tensions that triggered a historic sell-off in Asia-Pacific equities on March 4, Bitcoin demonstrated unexpected resilience. While South Korea’s KOSPI plummeted 12%, its worst drop in history, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 3.7%, Bitcoin rebounded after a brief dip, surging past $74,000 to a two-week high. The divergence stems from structural and fundamental differences between traditional equities and crypto. Asia-Pacific markets, heavily reliant on energy imports, faced direct economic risks from soaring oil prices due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. In contrast, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and decentralized nature positioned it as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Crypto markets, operating 24/7, priced in geopolitical risks ahead of traditional markets, reflecting higher pricing efficiency. Additionally, equities entered the crisis with high valuations and leverage, whereas crypto had undergone prior corrections, reducing speculative excess. Institutional participation via Bitcoin ETFs also provided stability, dampening volatility. This episode underscores a shift in asset perception: crypto is increasingly seen as a global, non-sovereign store of value amid geopolitical turmoil, while regionally tethered assets face heightened vulnerability.

marsbit03/05 10:50

Tiger Research: Can Bitcoin, Plunging Amid Geopolitical Crisis, Still Be Called 'Digital Gold'?

Tiger Research questions Bitcoin's status as "digital gold" after its price fell sharply during the Iran-Israel geopolitical crisis in February 2026, while gold rose. Historical data from six major crises shows Bitcoin consistently drops during such events, unlike gold. Neither sovereign states (which hoard gold but exclude Bitcoin from reserves) nor investors treat Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. For investors, it falls with stocks but doesn’t rise with them—a poor risk profile. Three structural asymmetries explain this gap: 1) market structure (Bitcoin’s derivatives market is 6.5x larger than spot, causing cascading sell-offs), 2) participant composition (leveraged traders dominate vs. patient capital in gold), and 3) behavioral accumulation (gold has decades of "crisis buying" trust; Bitcoin lacks this record). However, Bitcoin proves useful in crises for its functional value—enabling transfers when borders close or banks fail, as seen in Ukraine and Iran. For Bitcoin to become "next-generation gold," these asymmetries must shrink. Key enablers include generational shift (as digital-native generations inherit wealth) and algorithmic adoption (embedding "buy in crisis" logic into AI trading systems. Bitcoin isn’t digital gold yet, but could evolve into a new asset class if these changes occur.

marsbit03/04 12:10

Flames of War Reignited: How the Middle East Conflict Reshapes the Risk Premium of Gold and Crude Oil

Renewed conflict in the Middle East is reshaping risk premiums for gold and crude oil, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and supply disruption risks. The article analyzes how the escalation, particularly near the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global oil transit—has amplified volatility in energy and safe-haven assets. Oil prices surged due to concerns over supply security, rising shipping and insurance costs, and potential disruptions, even without actual supply cuts. Gold strengthened as investors sought refuge amid elevated uncertainty and rising inflation expectations, supported by central bank buying and ETF inflows. The transmission mechanisms include: (1) direct supply shocks impacting energy and related commodities; (2) rising inflation expectations influencing monetary policy and real interest rates; and (3) risk aversion favoring safe assets like gold and the dollar while pressuring equities. Historically, conflicts like the Gulf War, Iraq War, and Russia-Ukraine war triggered similar short-term spikes in oil and gold, with prices often overshooting initially before stabilizing as situations clarify. Bitcoin showed mixed behavior—sometimes correlating with risk assets during sell-offs but also acting as a capital flight tool in certain regions. It remains a high-volatility asset rather than a stable safe haven. Key variables ahead include: potential conflict spillover, actual shipping disruptions, and central bank responses to persistent energy-led inflation. Market pricing will hinge on whether supply shocks materialize, inflation resurges, and risk appetite contracts. In summary, war溢价 is repricing commodities, with gold benefiting from避险 demand and oil from physical risks, while Bitcoin faces liquidity and sentiment pressures. The outlook depends on geopolitical developments and their macroeconomic ripple effects.

marsbit03/04 02:28

Iran’s crypto market spikes 700% after strikes – Is this capital flight or…

Following U.S. and Israeli strikes in late February, Iran’s largest crypto exchange, Nobitex, saw a surge in withdrawals totaling nearly $3 million, raising questions about potential capital flight. However, analysis from TRM Labs suggests this was not mass capital flight but rather a market responding to volatility, connectivity constraints, and regulatory intervention. The Iranian government imposed a 99% internet blackout after the strikes, severely disrupting trading and causing overall transaction volumes to drop by 80%. The spike in withdrawals appears to have been an internal liquidity transfer rather than widespread panic. Despite the Rial trading at historic lows, the data indicates a controlled, state-influenced market under stress rather than uncontrolled capital flight. Crypto remains a relevant, though imperfect, hedge for Iranians amid economic and geopolitical instability.

ambcrypto03/03 17:02