What? Lighter Is Not Airdropping Today
Prediction market Polymarket shows the probability of Lighter conducting an airdrop on December 29 has plummeted from 87% to 25% within days, causing significant community concern. Despite no official cancellation, market sentiment has cooled sharply. Lighter has not yet released its tokenomics, and its staging environment already shows LIT spot trading, though the duration of this testing phase remains unclear.
The project recently initiated a severe Sybil detection campaign, removing points from bot and wash-trading addresses, with reallocated points distributed to the community. This aggressive, non-transparent approach—compared by some to LayerZero’s 2024 airdrop crackdown—has sparked backlash, with many users confused about the criteria and accusing the team of opacity.
Additionally, market confidence in Lighter’s valuation is declining. Polymarket probabilities for Lighter reaching a $1B+ FDV on day one have dropped, though pre-market FDV sits around $3.3B. Concerns include massive airdrop sell pressure (25% of total supply, unlocked) and limited initial liquidity, as Lighter plans no immediate CEX listings. Despite this, some large traders remain bullish, with open interest on Hyperliquid showing balanced mix of whale positions.
marsbit12/29 11:14
