War Doesn't Just Drive Up Oil Prices, Why Is Circle's Stock Price Soaring?
A class of companies, like defense contractors and oil giants, typically benefit from global instability. Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, unexpectedly joined this group as its stock price surged over 150% in five weeks, while the broader crypto market remained down 44% from its peak.
The core of Circle's business is holding US Treasuries to back each USDC in circulation. The interest earned on these bonds constitutes about 90% of its quarterly revenue, making the Federal Funds rate its primary driver. The recent price surge was triggered by geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, which drove oil prices up approximately 35%. This raised inflation concerns, leading markets to drastically scale back expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2026. Higher-for-longer interest rates mean Circle's treasury reserves continue to generate elevated yields, translating to more revenue and a rising stock price. This macroeconomic shift caused a short squeeze, as a significant portion of Circl's stock was shorted based on the expectation of falling rates.
However, the bullish narrative extends beyond a macro trade. Despite a net loss for FY2025, USDC's supply has reached a new all-time high of $79 billion, and its transaction volume now surpasses that of the larger USDT. This growth is attributed to its use as a payment infrastructure for cross-border transfers, tokenized assets, and AI agent micropayments, especially in regions where traditional banking becomes unreliable during crises.
A major structural challenge is Circle's costly revenue-sharing agreement with Coinbase, which took 54 cents of every dollar Circle earned in 2024. The market is currently pricing Circle as both a high-yield play and a critical piece of future financial infrastructure. The central tension remains: its profitability is currently dependent on high interest rates, but its long-term value hinges on successfully transitioning to a business model sustained by transaction fees and payment network services, independent of the Fed's decisions.
marsbit03/30 09:56
