Tiger Research: How Is This Crypto Winter Different?
Tiger Research analyzes the distinct nature of the current crypto market downturn, arguing it differs fundamentally from past "crypto winters." Previous cycles were triggered by internal industry crises—the Mt. Gox hack, ICO scams, and the FTX collapse—which shattered trust and drove talent away. In contrast, the recent market movement is driven by external factors: the approval of Bitcoin ETFs fueled the bull run, while tariff policies and interest rate shifts caused the decline.
Post-regulation, the market has fragmented into three layers: a compliant zone (e.g., tokenized RWA, regulated exchanges), a non-compliant zone (speculative, experimental apps), and shared infrastructure (e.g., stablecoins, oracles). Capital no longer flows between these layers as before; ETF inflows remain largely confined to Bitcoin within the compliant zone and do not trickle down to altcoins.
For the next bull market to emerge, two conditions are necessary: a new killer application must originate from the non-compliant zone (similar to how DeFi summer began), and the macro environment must become supportive (e.g., with lower interest rates). The era of a unified "crypto season" where all assets rally together is likely over due to this market segmentation.
marsbit02/04 10:15
