Analysts Have Announced Signs of a Bear Cycle Ending on the Crypto Market
Analysts at Wintermute suggest the cryptocurrency market is showing signs of a bear cycle ending, despite tough macroeconomic conditions and ongoing uncertainty around US monetary policy. They noted that digital assets displayed relative resilience last week against several negative events that typically pressure risk assets, including an unchanged Fed rate, a multi-decade high in 30-year US Treasury yields, and a major AI fund liquidating assets. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell less than 4% for the week, which analysts interpret as a sign of nearly exhausted selling pressure, with excessive optimism now leaving the stock market instead.
While a rapid shift to a sustained bull run is not expected, low open interest and summer liquidity could set the stage for a short-term technical rally. However, this scenario would be invalidated if the market breaks last week's lows on high volume, signaling the return of active sellers. The report also highlighted a shift in institutional demand: US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows in late July, while Ethereum funds posted a fourth consecutive week of inflows. Furthermore, a major corporate buyer, Strategy, has resumed periodic Bitcoin sales to fund dividends, becoming an occasional seller during weak demand periods.
Near-term catalysts include upcoming US ISM Services data and the jobs report, which will shape Fed policy expectations. The upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh may signal future policy direction ahead of the September meeting, is also seen as a key event that will influence the crypto market's next move.
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