Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Asher (@Asher_0210)
Following the World Cup, as other major sports events have mostly entered their off-season, trading enthusiasm on Polymarket has declined. The platform recently conducted a round of intensive adjustments to its management, market direction, and promotion strategy, preparing in advance for upcoming hot sports events and the U.S. midterm elections in November.
In terms of personnel, Travis VanderZanden, founder of shared electric scooter company Bird and former executive at Uber and Lyft, joined Polymarket as Chief Growth Officer, overseeing the company's marketing system. Additionally, Polymarket has brought in several senior executives from institutions including Robinhood, Coinbase, Nasdaq, and the FBI, covering roles in compliance, regulation, investigation, and risk management.
Furthermore, Polymarket continues to exert efforts to return to the U.S. market. The upcoming series of sports events and political events are also expected to further boost trading activity for its U.S. business.
One Year After Returning to the U.S., Polymarket US Enters Growth Phase
From Acquiring Licensed Exchange to Launching Web Version, Polymarket US Accelerates Rollout
In 2022, Polymarket reached a settlement with the CFTC over unregistered derivatives trading business and exited the U.S. market.
It wasn't until July 2025 that Polymarket paved the way for its U.S. return by acquiring QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearing organization, for $112 million. Subsequently, QCX LLC operated under the name Polymarket US and, in November of that year, obtained a revised Designation Order from the CFTC, further solidifying its foundation for conducting regulated trading in the U.S.
In December of the same year, Polymarket US began opening up to users on the waitlist; in May of this year, Polymarket US was fully released to U.S. iOS users. Just yesterday, community members reported that the Polymarket US web version has been launched, with channels for U.S. users continuing to expand.
Polymarket US Trading Volume Continues to Grow, Gradually Approaching Polymarket International
In May this year, as access for U.S. users gradually opened, Polymarket US's trading volume began to show significant growth.
According to Dune data, in May, Polymarket US trading volume was $1.769 billion, while Polymarket International trading volume during the same period was $7.077 billion, making US volume about 25% of International's. By June, Polymarket US trading volume rapidly increased to $4.041 billion, more than doubling from May, while International trading volume was $10.773 billion, raising the ratio to about 38%.
In July, this gap narrowed further. Polymarket US's monthly trading volume reached approximately $5 billion, setting a new record high, while International's July trading volume was only $8.044 billion. US trading volume was equivalent to 62% of International's, whereas two months earlier this ratio was only 25%.
As user access points increase and trading scale continues to rise, Polymarket not only needs to further acquire U.S. users but also faces a series of more specific issues such as marketing, compliance, and risk management. Therefore, growth, marketing, compliance, and risk control have become the most concentrated areas in this round of team adjustments.
Hiring for Both Growth and Compliance, But First Need to Address Previous Marketing Issues
After Travis VanderZanden, founder of Bird and former Uber and Lyft executive, takes over marketing, his first task will be to address the promotional controversies left behind.
Previously, a Wall Street Journal investigation found that Polymarket had, through promotional partners, allowed content creators to display simulated trades. Some videos used website interfaces highly similar to the real Polymarket, leading viewers to mistakenly believe the creators were conducting real trades and making profits. The investigation stated that approximately $1.9 million in bets shown across over 1,100 related videos were simulated trades. Subsequently, the CFTC launched an investigation into Polymarket's related marketing practices.
Polymarket then began rectifying its marketing system, including restructuring the marketing department, updating rules for promotional partners, and conducting relevant training for employees. The company also hired consulting firm AlixPartners to review content published by partners, checking for compliance with the new promotional guidelines.
Therefore, VanderZanden's role upon joining Polymarket is not solely about expanding the user base. He is inheriting a marketing system still under adjustment. Polymarket US is currently continuing to expand user access points, and trading volume is in a growth phase. With more sports and political events on the horizon, the platform hopes to further attract U.S. users and increase trading activity. However, the previous regulatory investigation also means that some of the past, more aggressive promotion methods are difficult to continue using.
Autumn is the Real Test, Polymarket Still Needs to Catch Up with Kalshi
In the U.S. prediction market, Kalshi still significantly leads Polymarket US. In July, Kalshi's monthly trading volume was approximately $37.7 billion, while Polymarket US was about $5 billion, and Polymarket International about $8.044 billion during the same period—the two platforms combined around $13 billion, less than one-third of Kalshi's. Moreover, Kalshi's business is almost entirely concentrated in the U.S. market.
This gap is also reflected in capital market valuations. At the end of June, Kalshi was negotiating a new round of financing with a target valuation of approximately $40 billion; just a month earlier, the company had completed a $1 billion financing round with a valuation of $22 billion. In comparison, Polymarket was valued at about $9 billion in October 2025, and its valuation rose to $15 billion after completing around $1 billion in financing in April this year. Entering August, it began seeking another approximately $1 billion in financing, targeting a valuation exceeding $20 billion.
After September, a series of popular sports events and the November U.S. midterm elections will arrive. The U.S. regulated prediction market is Kalshi's foundation and is becoming the most important growth engine for Polymarket. For Polymarket, the next few months will be a critical window for US to further expand its trading scale. The effectiveness of this round of team adjustments will also soon be tested.
