Is finance crypto’s first chapter or its final form? VCs weigh in…

ambcryptoPubblicato 2026-02-10Pubblicato ultima volta 2026-02-10

Introduzione

The article explores whether finance represents crypto's foundational use case or its ultimate application, featuring perspectives from venture capitalists. Chris Dixon of a16z Crypto argues that non-financial applications are still emerging, with finance developing first due to infrastructure needs. Haseeb Qureshi of Dragonfly counters that consumer crypto failed due to weak demand and poor products, not regulation, asserting finance is crypto's only proven product-market fit. Capital flows in 2025 support this, with venture funding exceeding $20 billion, heavily focused on DeFi and infrastructure. TVL recovered to ~$99 billion, and stablecoin supply surpassed $307 billion, demonstrating finance's dominance. Revenue data further reinforces this: top DeFi protocols like PancakeSwap and Aave generated significant fees, while non-financial sectors like gaming struggled with thin revenue and low user monetization. The conclusion is that finance remains crypto's primary value layer, with strong capital and payment flows, whereas utility sectors face challenges in converting engagement into sustainable revenue.

Has the future of cryptocurrency in finance been firmly established, or is the potential for non-financial applications only beginning to unfold?

Chris Dixon, Managing Partner at a16z Crypto, rejected the narrative, stating,

“It’s fashionable right now to declare that non-financial use cases of crypto are dead.”

He explained that blockchains introduced a coordination primitive, with finance emerging first because infrastructure had to develop before other sectors.

Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner at Dragonfly, responded directly by challenging the idea that regulation was to blame. He asked why finance thrived despite facing even stricter scrutiny.

In his view, consumer crypto failed because of weak demand rather than policy barriers, arguing that the products themselves were poor and ultimately failed the market test.

Dixon pointed to internet-era sequencing and supportive policy shifts, while Qureshi cites adoption history, concluding finance remains crypto’s only proven product-market fit.

Capital flows reveal crypto’s true product-market fit

Venture funding rose sharply in 2025, surpassing $20 billion, the highest level since 2022 and more than double 2023 totals. Growth accelerated into Q4, where $8.5 billion flowed across 425 deals, up 84% quarter over quarter.

Capital focused on later-stage rounds, infrastructure, and DeFi, signaling institutional conviction rather than retail hype. This expansion aligned with DeFi’s stabilization phase.

Total value locked recovered to about $99.07 billion, rebounding from the $50 billion bear-market floor, while stablecoin supply exceeded $307 billion.

Lending platforms such as Morpho maintained deep liquidity, reinforcing finance as crypto’s product-market fit layer. Meanwhile, stablecoin settlement reached trillions annually, with adjusted volumes rivaling traditional rails in throughput.

Together, funding inflows and payment growth supported finance-led adoption, validating Haseeb’s demand view while still reflecting Dixon’s sequencing logic.

Revenue density is still anchored

Earnings concentration across top protocols reinforces the value-accrual divide.

Financial platforms led profitability through the year, with PancakeSwap [CAKE] generating about $15.8 million in 30-day earnings and Aave [AAVE] $10.4 million, signaling fee-driven sustainability.

As emissions declined, retained value strengthened through burns and staking, which supported net profitability. In contrast, non-financial sectors relied heavily on token rewards to drive usage. Gaming and social activity spiked during airdrops and play-to-earn phases; however, retention weakened once subsidies faded.

Revenue density remained thin, with top blockchain games producing roughly $4.2 million daily and ARPU often below $10–$30. Thus, the utility attracted users but struggled to convert engagement into a durable cash flow.

All this together, from a revenue and venture‐returns perspective, Haseeb’s demand argument appears stronger, while Dixon’s view remains structurally long‐term.


Final Thoughts

  • Finance remains crypto’s dominant value-accrual layer, with capital, revenue, and payment flows consolidating around DeFi and stablecoin rails.
  • Utility sectors drive engagement but fail to convert usage into durable cash flow, reinforcing venture skepticism despite long-term expansion potential.

Domande pertinenti

QAccording to the article, what is the main point of disagreement between Chris Dixon and Haseeb Qureshi regarding non-financial crypto applications?

AChris Dixon believes that non-financial use cases are not dead and that finance emerged first due to necessary infrastructure development, while Haseeb Qureshi argues that consumer crypto failed primarily due to weak demand and poor product quality, not regulatory barriers.

QWhat do the 2025 venture funding trends, as cited in the article, indicate about the crypto market's focus?

AThe 2025 venture funding, which surpassed $20 billion and saw an 84% quarter-over-quarter increase in Q4, was focused on later-stage rounds, infrastructure, and DeFi, signaling strong institutional conviction in financial applications rather than retail hype.

QHow does the revenue performance of financial DeFi protocols like PancakeSwap compare to non-financial sectors like gaming?

AFinancial protocols like PancakeSwap generated significant earnings ($15.8 million in 30 days) demonstrating fee-driven sustainability, while non-financial sectors like gaming produced much lower revenue (roughly $4.2 million daily) and struggled to convert user engagement into durable cash flow.

QWhat key metric is used to show the recovery and strength of the DeFi ecosystem in the article?

AThe article cites the recovery of the Total Value Locked (TVL) to about $99.07 billion, rebounding from a bear-market low of $50 billion, and the growth of stablecoin supply exceeding $307 billion as key metrics demonstrating DeFi's strength and stabilization.

QWhat is the article's final conclusion regarding crypto's product-market fit?

AThe article concludes that finance remains crypto's dominant value-accrual layer, with capital, revenue, and payment flows consolidating around DeFi and stablecoins, while non-financial utility sectors drive engagement but fail to create sustainable revenue models.

Letture associate

The Merger of Codex and ChatGPT Marks the Beginning of a Major Reshuffle in Programming Tools

OpenAI is shifting its strategic focus from ChatGPT to Codex, merging them along with the browser tool Atlas into a unified desktop super-app. This move signals an internal belief that Codex, originally a programming tool, represents the next evolution of AI more than conversational models like ChatGPT. Over the past year, Codex's weekly active users have surged past 5 million. The key distinction is that while ChatGPT answers questions, Codex executes tasks. Enterprises increasingly value this ability to get work done over simply receiving advice. Consequently, Codex is attracting professionals beyond developers, including analysts, bankers, marketers, and product managers. OpenAI's reorganization and increased investment in Codex stem from recognizing that the future of AI competition lies in execution capabilities, not just conversation. The company is launching role-specific plugins (e.g., for data analysis, sales, design) to transform Codex into a broad knowledge work platform that automates and redefines white-collar workflows. Beyond being a tool, Codex reflects OpenAI's ambition to redefine software. New features like "Sites"—which generates interactive websites from documents—and collaborative "Annotations" aim to create a paradigm where the AI understands the goal and handles the tools and steps, functioning more like a digital colleague than traditional software. The ultimate goal is a unified experience where the user cares only about the completed task.

marsbit8 min fa

The Merger of Codex and ChatGPT Marks the Beginning of a Major Reshuffle in Programming Tools

marsbit8 min fa

Interpreting Investment Opportunities in the Age of Great Navigation, Invesco Great Wall Fund Releases '2026 Report on Chinese Enterprises Going Global'

Invesco Great Wall Fund has released its "2026 China Corporate Globalization Report," titled "The 'Great Navigation Era' of Chinese Enterprises." The report analyzes the new trends and investment opportunities as Chinese companies expand globally, moving from simple product exports to comprehensive overseas operations involving services, branding, and local production. Driven by factors like trade friction, the pursuit of higher profit margins abroad, and policy support, globalization is becoming essential for Chinese companies. The report outlines an evolution: from early product export ("Globalization 1.0") to the current "Globalization 2.0," characterized by overseas capacity, capital goods investment, consumer brand expansion, and service exports. Chinese firms' competitive advantages are highlighted, including a vast engineer talent pool, low-cost and robust infrastructure, and complete industrial clusters. Specific sectors with significant出海 potential are identified: * **Capital Goods** (e.g., engineering machinery, power equipment): Benefiting from global demand, especially in Belt & Road markets and the AI-driven power grid upgrade cycle. * **Consumer Brands**: Transitioning from cost to brand advantage, leveraging供应链 efficiency. * **Technology & Innovation**: Including AI applications, optical modules within global tech supply chains, and new energy vehicles focusing on local production. * **Pharmaceuticals**: Chinese biotech firms are becoming preferred partners for global pharma, with potential for breakthrough drugs in areas like oncology and weight loss. The report concludes that corporate globalization represents a sustained, core theme for China's capital markets, though companies must navigate challenges like geopolitics and localization.

marsbit20 min fa

Interpreting Investment Opportunities in the Age of Great Navigation, Invesco Great Wall Fund Releases '2026 Report on Chinese Enterprises Going Global'

marsbit20 min fa

GitHub, Transfixed by AI

On the night of February 9th, GitHub suffered a major outage caused by a simple configuration change—reducing a cache refresh interval from 12 to 2 hours—that triggered a cascade of failures. This was not an isolated event, but part of a broader pattern. In early 2026, GitHub experienced at least 8 major incidents, failing to meet its promised 99.9% availability. These outages stemmed from structural issues: explosive growth in load, tight service coupling, and insufficient protection against abnormal traffic. This unprecedented load is driven by AI Agents. In 2025, GitHub handled ~1 billion commits. By 2026, weekly commits reached 275 million, projecting to ~14 billion for the year—a 14x increase. AI tools like Claude Code now contribute 4.5% of all public repository commits, with weekly submissions surging 25x in just three months. AI-generated pull requests jumped from 4 million to 17 million per month in half a year. Unlike human developers, AI Agents work continuously, generating commits at a scale that overwhelms infrastructure designed for human rhythms. The surge also shattered GitHub's business model. Copilot's flat-rate pricing, based on assisting human developers, became unsustainable as Agentic AI sessions consumed resources worth hundreds of dollars for a few dollars in fees. In response, GitHub imposed usage limits and, by June 1st, shifted to a pay-per-use "AI Credits" system. Facing this new reality, GitHub realized a 10x scaling plan was insufficient. It announced a need to *redesign* its architecture for 30x current scale—decoupling services, adding fault isolation, and improving change management to prevent cascading failures. Other platforms like Stripe and AWS are facing similar challenges with AI Agents. Fundamentally, GitHub is transitioning from a human collaboration platform to an "exhaust pipe" for automated AI workflows. Its detailed post-mortem reports aim to maintain trust during this turbulent rebuild. The February outage was not just a technical glitch, but a signal of the software industry's entry into a new, AI-driven era.

marsbit1 h fa

GitHub, Transfixed by AI

marsbit1 h fa

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片