Ethereum vs. Bitcoin – Why 2026 could mark ETH’s comeback

ambcryptoPubblicato 2025-12-12Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-12-12

Introduzione

As 2025 concludes, investors are looking ahead to 2026, with a particular focus on the underperforming altcoin market. Historically, Ethereum (ETH) leading the market often triggers an altcoin rally, and early signs of this rotation are emerging. After trending down against Bitcoin (BTC) since mid-Q2, the ETH/BTC pair is potentially bottoming around 0.30 in late-Q4, signaling a possible reversal. This is supported by Ethereum's rising dominance (ETH.D), which is approaching 13% resistance, while Bitcoin's dominance (BTC.D) has been choppy below 60%. Despite the overall fragile market and Bitcoin's struggle to recover from a recent 30% crash, Ethereum has shown strength, jumping 15% in three weeks compared to Bitcoin's 7%. This outperformance, more than double the capital inflow, is backed by significant whale activity, including a notable $140 million shift from BTC to ETH. Furthermore, increasing institutional adoption, with nine new partnerships bringing ETH into wider use, suggests this rotation is a strategic, Ethereum-led move rather than a market fluke, setting a solid foundation for ETH's potential comeback against BTC in 2026.

As 2025 winds down, investors are already eyeing 2026.

The focus is on the altcoin market, which underperformed this year. Historically, when Ethereum [ETH] leads, it often kicks off an altcoin rally. Notably, it looks like we’re starting to see signs of that rotation.

Since mid-Q2, ETH has been trending down against Bitcoin [BTC], pushing the Altcoin Season Index down to 33. But late-Q4 looks promising, with ETH/BTC potentially bottoming around 0.30, signaling a possible reversal.

Backing this up, Ethereum dominance [ETH.D] is on the move.

Weekly, ETH.D has already posted three higher highs, closing in on 13% resistance. Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance [BTC.D] has been chopping below 60% over the same period, reinforcing the shift toward alts.

Sure, the Altcoin Season Index hasn’t caught up yet.

However, with ETH’s Q4 ROI now nearing BTC’s -18% bleed, is this rotation more Ethereum-led than market-led? Could this be an early hint of where strategic investors are heading in 2026?

Ethereum catalysts driving early market rotation

The market is still fragile, and support levels remain at risk.

BTC, for example, is still trying to recover from the crash two months ago that knocked it down 30%. Despite some “dip-buying”, BTC hasn’t fully bounced back, showing that caution is still dominating sentiment.

Against this backdrop, Ethereum’s weekly run against Bitcoin could signal that smart money is rotating. Backing this up, a whale sold $132.5 million in BTC and scooped up $140.2 million in ETH over the past two weeks.

Notably, the rotation is already showing in price action as well.

Ethereum has jumped roughly 15% over the past three weeks, outpacing Bitcoin’s 7% move in the same stretch. That’s more than 2x the capital flowing into ETH, clearly backed by whale rotation, as we saw above.

Add in institutional adoption ramping up, with nine new partnerships bringing ETH into mainstream use, and this rotation looks far from a fluke. Instead, it is shaping up as a solid base for ETH’s 2026 run versus BTC.

Final Thoughts

Ethereum has been trending down against Bitcoin since mid-Q2, but late-Q4 shows signs of reversal.
Whale activity and institutional partnerships highlight a rotation that’s more Ethereum-led, setting a solid base for ETH’s 2026 run vs. BTC.

Letture associate

Half-Billion Dollar Bet: Bitcoin OG Scales Multi-Asset Long To $611 Million

Bitcoin is consolidating within a narrow range as the market awaits clearer direction following the Federal Reserve's recent moves and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. However, significant whale activity suggests a different narrative. A prominent trader, known as BitcoinOG—who accurately shorted the October 10 crash—is aggressively expanding his long positions. He currently holds approximately $491M in ETH, $92.6M in BTC, and $27.8M in SOL. Rather than reducing exposure, he continues to accumulate, signaling strong conviction in a broader crypto recovery. Additionally, he has placed large limit orders to buy more ETH and SOL just below current prices, indicating a strategic plan to increase his exposure on any potential pullback. This accumulation approach suggests smart money may be positioning early for a possible trend reversal.

bitcoinist28 min fa

Half-Billion Dollar Bet: Bitcoin OG Scales Multi-Asset Long To $611 Million

bitcoinist28 min fa

Bitcoin miners’ revenue down by 11% – Is capitulation next?

Bitcoin miner revenue has declined by 11% over the past two months, falling from 562 BTC to 502 BTC, indicating growing financial strain. This drop comes despite Bitcoin mining difficulty reaching a record high of 159 trillion, forcing miners to expend more resources for lower rewards. With BTC trading 30% below its peak and short-term holders facing unrealized losses, market uncertainty persists. Recent net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and miner net position changes turning negative suggest some miners may be capitulating. If the $90k support level breaks, a broader miner capitulation could be imminent, adding further downward pressure on Bitcoin.

ambcrypto28 min fa

Bitcoin miners’ revenue down by 11% – Is capitulation next?

ambcrypto28 min fa

Pouring Cold Water: Crypto Cards Might Have No Future

Crypto cards are merely a temporary solution to bridge cryptocurrency into mainstream adoption and global payments, but they fundamentally contradict core crypto values of decentralization and permissionless access. These cards are not true crypto products; they rely on traditional banking infrastructure (like Visa/Mastercard) and add abstraction layers that introduce extra fees, compliance risks, and centralization. They lack privacy, require KYC, and do not enable direct spending of cryptocurrencies like stablecoins or ETH. Instead, they convert crypto to fiat, reinforcing the existing financial gatekeepers. While useful short-term for user convenience, crypto cards are not the end goal. The future should enable direct crypto payments without intermediaries. Most crypto card companies simply white-label services from providers like Rain, rather than building innovative infrastructure. Notably, EtherFi offers a more crypto-native approach by using crypto as collateral for loans instead of selling assets, thus avoiding taxable events. In summary, crypto cards are a transitional tool that may eventually become obsolete as the industry moves towards truly decentralized, direct payment systems.

深潮1 h fa

Pouring Cold Water: Crypto Cards Might Have No Future

深潮1 h fa

Public Chain Moat Only 3/10? Alliance DAO Founder's Remarks Ignite Crypto Community Debate

Alliance DAO founder qw (@QwQiao) sparked intense debate in the crypto community by claiming that Layer 1 blockchains have "limited moats," rating them only 3/10 in terms of sustainable competitive advantage. This triggered strong reactions from key industry figures. Dragonfly Capital partner Haseeb strongly disagreed, arguing that Ethereum’s decade-long dominance despite well-funded challengers proves its strong moat. Others, like Multicoin’s Kyle Samani and researchers from Ethereum and Circle, questioned whether liquidity alone constitutes a real moat, with some calling it fleeting and unreliable. In response, qw elaborated on his moat rating framework, giving traditional giants like Microsoft, Apple, and Visa perfect scores (10/10) based on revenue models and infrastructure, while rating top crypto projects around 5/10. He notably rated Bitcoin at 9/10, citing its unique founding story and Lindy effect, but deducted a point due to uncertainties around security and quantum threats. The debate expanded into what truly constitutes a moat in crypto. Critics argued qw’s framework overemphasizes current revenue and undervalues network effects, trust, and technological ethos. Defenders of blockchain moats pointed to elements like developer ecosystems, brand strength, switching costs, and application diversity as core defensive attributes. The article concludes that the crypto industry is still young and small compared to traditional finance and tech giants. Rather than fixating on abstract moat concepts, the priority should be solving real user needs at scale, driving adoption, and expanding overall market reach.

marsbit1 h fa

Public Chain Moat Only 3/10? Alliance DAO Founder's Remarks Ignite Crypto Community Debate

marsbit1 h fa

SUI rebounds amid $17M accumulation – $2.20 breakout hinges on…

SUI has rebounded, with over $17 million worth of tokens withdrawn from exchanges in the past week, signaling strong accumulation. The price increase is driven by its inclusion in the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF, ongoing accumulation, and bullish trader sentiment. At the time of writing, SUI was trading at $1.64, up 6.35%, though trading volume declined by 22% to $831 million, indicating some market caution. Derivatives data shows a strong bias toward long positions, with key liquidation levels at $1.512 (lower) and $1.694 (upper). If SUI closes above $1.75, it could rally 26% toward $2.20. The ADX reading of 26.68 confirms strong directional momentum.

ambcrypto1 h fa

SUI rebounds amid $17M accumulation – $2.20 breakout hinges on…

ambcrypto1 h fa

Trading

Spot

Futures