Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010)
BTC prices continue to weaken, and the crypto market has once again reached a critical point of confidence and liquidity. At the same time, a storm of public opinion, almost carrying a "sense of liquidation," is rapidly spreading within the industry, with the spearhead pointed squarely at Binance.
From "Only when Binance falls will the market get better" to "The essence of the October 11th crash is Binance's problem," it seems that as long as Binance is identified as the 'culprit,' all the industry's difficulties have an answer.
But is the problem really that simple? Let's conduct an extreme thought experiment—If one day, Binance really collapses, will the crypto industry truly become better?
The answer is written at the beginning: Of course not.
The Death of the Industry's Largest Exchange: Either from Asset Theft or Regulatory Hammer
No matter how much imagination is used, it is almost impossible for Binance to die due to its own poor management or industry competition in the coming years. Judging from profitability, cash flow scale, or the self-sustaining ability of its business lines, Binance has long been in the most solid structure within the crypto industry, one of the few platforms that has truly weathered bull and bear cycles.
So, if we must talk about the potential for Binance to fall, I think it can only be one of the following two situations:
One type is where Binance's huge reserve assets cannot be fully backed due to theft or unexpected impacts. After all, the collapses of FTX and the hacks on Bybit are not distant lessons. Risks such as North Korean hackers, social engineering attacks, and sudden black swan events always exist, making such scenarios not entirely impossible;
The other type relates to the regulatory power of sovereign nations like the US government. Especially considering the approaching US midterm elections and recent events like the "ICE shooting incident" and "healthcare bill controversies," Democratic forces may regain the initiative in US regulatory agencies. At that time, Binance may also face a series of challenges and regulatory crackdowns.
Based on the above possibilities, let's boldly assume the various subsequent possibilities after Binance's fall.
After Binance Falls, No One is Spared: Users, Assets, and Industry Confidence Suffer a Devastating Blow
After Binance collapses due to asset damage or regulatory hammer, a storm of剧烈波动 will undoubtedly sweep across the entire crypto market.
Consequence One: Users Become Creditors, Huge Assets Damaged
According to data from Binance's official website, Binance currently has a global total of approximately 307 million users. This means that currently, on average, 1 in every 27 people globally holds crypto assets. Combined with data estimating the total size of the cryptocurrency industry in 2025 to be about 600-650 million people, it is no exaggeration to say that Binance's user base almost occupies "half" of the total number of people in the cryptocurrency industry.
If Binance really suddenly collapses, Binance users will be the most distraught. Because regardless of the "cause of death" for Binance, this means that, just like the FTX creditors who are still struggling to seek compensation today, Binance users will also become "Binance creditors."
For the many who have put their life savings into Binance, this is undoubtedly the most unacceptable outcome.
Consequence Two: Assets Stolen or Passively Destroyed, The Market Faces a Forking Moment
After Binance falls, depending on the different flows of assets, the market will also face a forking moment.
If Binance's huge assets are lost due to a hacker attack, considering that the hackers will quickly dump various mainstream coins including BTC, the crypto market will face large-scale sell-offs; and to avoid the continuous decline in the price of the tokens they hold, many industry token holders will likely choose to sell as soon as possible to minimize asset losses. By then, the crypto market may experience a decline far more exaggerated than after the 2022 FTX crash.
Another possibility is that Binance's reserve assets become difficult to withdraw due to unexpected circumstances, equivalent to passive locking or destruction. BTC and ETH might instead experience a surge. After all, according to Coinglass data, Binance exchange wallets hold approximately 650,000 BTC, accounting for about 3% of BTC's total supply; the total assets within the Binance exchange are as high as $142.27 billion.
Of course, the more serious consequence of Binance's sudden collapse is the indiscriminate blow to crypto institutions. Whether it is crypto VCs and other investment institutions that store huge assets in Binance, or market makers that act as liquidity transfer bridges, once Binance collapses, they will face asset freezes or difficulties in recovery. The massive assets of institutions will affect liquidity pipelines across different links and chains in the industry.
The final result could very likely be a series of chain liquidations, potentially lasting 2-3 years, or even longer.
Consequence Three: Industry Confidence Dries Up, Ushering in Strong Regulatory Entry
With Binance's fall, the overall confidence of the crypto industry will also suffer a devastating blow.
After all, as the saying goes: "Confidence is more important than gold." And as an emerging industry with a history of less than 20 years, the collapse of a leading cryptocurrency exchange will also greatly shake industry participants inside the circle and traditional financial market practitioners and onlookers outside the circle who originally intended to participate in crypto investment.
What follows will inevitably be the strong entry of regulatory forces—on the one hand, BTC strategic reserve plans will undoubtedly be shelved indefinitely by sovereign nations like the US government; on the other hand, mandatory KYC, proof of reserve assets, and other regulatory compliance measures will become stricter.
The final result is that the simple and crude slogan of "when the whale falls, all things grow" you shouted根本无法实现: The fall of Binance does not mean that Binance's original users and new crypto users will gradually分流 to other CEXs. Instead, it may lead to small and medium-sized exchanges dying in succession due to compliance costs and a sharp decrease in users, ultimately becoming unsustainable. By then, the scale of the cryptocurrency industry is bound to shrink further.
"If Binance Dies": A "Blame-Shifting" Emotional Outlet
Returning to the initial proposition—After Binance falls, will the crypto world become better? Of course not.
Binance's ability to reach today and become the de facto largest exchange in the industry is the result of long-term博弈 and the collective choice of the industry and users, not偶然幸运 in a certain cycle.
Whether it is depth, liquidity, system stability, or business self-sustaining ability, the position Binance occupies is the inevitable product of years of accumulated advantages. It was pushed to this position through real transactions, real funds, and real user migration time and again.
It's just that when the industry as a whole enters a stage of narrative exhaustion, stagnant incremental funds, and structural liquidity failure, the real problems begin to surface. What cannot be quickly solved is the industry's own supply mechanism and transaction structure, and the easiest target to become the承载 object of emotional宣泄 and the "scapegoat" is naturally the "bellwether" at the forefront.
The voices currently恨不得 "pull Binance down first and talk later" are, in essence, not an answer to the problem, but a highly emotional 'blame-shifting explanation' under the inability to change the industry's structural困境.
But the reality is, even if Binance suddenly disappears at this moment, the crypto world will most likely not become healthier because of it; it will most likely only become more fragile, more chaotic, and更难重建信心.
Of course, heavy is the head that wears the crown. Standing at the center of the industry inherently means having to simultaneously bear the光环 and the指责, and helping the industry find a way out is an unavoidable role destiny for Binance.
In the movie "The Swordsman," Ren Woxing said to Linghu Chong before he died: "You think killing me will bring peace to the martial arts world? Dongfang Bubai is ten times more ruthless than me."
In the crypto江湖, we are all, to a greater or lesser extent, somewhat不由自主.
And what truly deserves to be repeatedly追问 is never "who should be pulled down from the altar," but rather, after the old narrative fails, what can this industry still rely on to move forward.
