Crypto speculation at 2024 lows as TradFi leveraged ETFs hit record $239B

cointelegraphPubblicato 2025-12-12Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-12-12

Introduzione

Crypto speculative activity has hit a near two-year low in 2024, with memecoin dominance falling significantly, according to CryptoQuant. In contrast, traditional finance leveraged ETFs reached a record $239 billion in assets under management in Q3 2025. This shift indicates declining interest in high-risk digital assets and a move toward regulated TradFi products. Crypto investor sentiment remains in "Fear" territory following the October market crash, and smart money traders are betting against memecoins while showing more interest in assets like Ether and tokens with real utility. The memecoin market is described as "dead," with concerns around fair launches and liquidity further dampening interest. A strong catalyst would be needed to revive retail speculation.

Traditional finance leveraged investment products are at a record high, but the appetite for speculative assets remains muted in the cryptocurrency market.

Speculative appetite is cooling among crypto investors, with memecoin dominance vs altcoins hitting a near two-year low last seen in February 2024, according to crypto data platform CryptoQuant.

“Memecoin markets are dead,” wrote CryptoQuant co-founder and CEO, Ki Young Ji, in a Thursday X post.

Memecoin dominance in altcoin markets. Source: Ki Young Ju

In contrast, speculative appetite is soaring among equities investors, as traditional leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) hit a new all-time high of $239 billion in assets under management during the third quarter of 2025, according to Bloomberg data shared by Barchart.

The dynamic signals a waning enthusiasm for high-risk digital assets, as speculative appetite is recalibrating to regulated, TradFi leveraged products in less volatile equity markets.

Source: Bloomberg/Barchart

The market dynamic signals a maturation in crypto and equities markets, as risk-taking is “expressed through regulated, familiar products with defined safeguards,” not memecoins that suffer from “thin” liquidity and regulatory uncertainty, Lacie Zhang, market analyst at Bitget Wallet, told Cointelegraph.

”A revival would likely require a strong catalyst — such as a new viral narrative, major exchange listings, or decisive price action — to reignite retail interest.”

Related: Bitcoin treasuries stall in Q4, but largest holders keep stacking sats

Crypto investor sentiment yet to recover from October market crash

The appetite of crypto investors remains muted for most cryptocurrencies since the record market crash at the beginning of October, not just for memecoins.

Crypto investor sentiment saw a small recovery from the “Extreme Fear” of 10 recorded on Nov. 23, but the current 29 reading still signals “Fear,” and remains far below the 62 “Greed” level from Oct. 7, before the $19 billion crypto market crash occurred, according to CoinMarketCap's Fear & Greed Index.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index, 1-year chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

Meanwhile, the crypto industry’s best-performing traders by returns, who are tracked as “smart money” traders on Nansen’s blockchain intelligence platform, are betting on the decline of the leading memecoins and most cryptocurrencies.

Smart money was net short on Fartcoin (FART) for $3.5 million and net short on the Pump.fun (PUMP) token for $1.5 million, Nansen data shows.

However, the cohort is betting on more upside for Ether (ETH) and decentralized exchange Hyperliquid’s (HYPE) token, signaling a preference for tokens with real revenue-generating blockchain protocols.

Smart money traders top perpetual futures positions on Hyperliquid. Source: Nansen

Related: Crypto nears its ‘Netscape moment’ as industry approaches inflection point

The positioning from this cohort may also signal investor fatigue with the memecoin launches of the past cycle, as troubling data is emerging about some of these coins.

On Thursday, blockchain data from Bubblemaps claimed that about 30% of the Pepe (PEPE) token’s genesis supply was bundled under an entity that sold $2 million a day after the coin’s debut, casting doubt on the memecoin’s fair-launch premise.

Magazine: Memecoin degeneracy is funding groundbreaking anti-aging research

Letture associate

After Three Consecutive Quarters of Decline, Can the Crypto Market Find a Window for Stabilization in Q3?

The cryptocurrency market has just concluded its worst-performing quarter since 2022, with total capitalization dropping 12.6% to $2.1 trillion. All core metrics indicate capital is leaving the sector, not just rotating within it. Bitcoin fell 14.2% and Ethereum dropped 25.4% in Q2, breaking their previous correlation with US tech stocks. A key driver is the reversal in US spot Bitcoin ETF flows, which saw a net outflow of approximately $4.67 billion in Q2, including a record monthly outflow near $4.5 billion in June. While recent data suggests long-term holders are accumulating again, sustained ETF outflows mean continued selling pressure. Market focus is now singularly on the Federal Reserve. The upcoming July FOMC meeting is seen as the most critical event for Q3. A dovish signal could support Bitcoin reclaiming a $68,000-$84,000 range, while a hawkish stance might establish a new trading band around $50,000-$56,000. Additionally, regulatory uncertainty persists, with the progress of the crucial *CLARITY Act* stalling in the Senate, reducing its perceived 2026 passage probability to 40-45%. Despite the broad downturn, a few sectors showed growth. Prediction markets saw nominal volume surge 48.7% year-over-year to $113.8 billion, and tokenized collectibles transaction volume rose 143% quarterly to $1.4 billion. The Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization sector also continued steady growth, now representing ~$28.1 billion in on-chain value. The market's foundation for an extreme crash appears limited, with Bitcoin price hovering near its 200-week moving average. However, the trading paradigm has shifted from narrative-driven speculation to decisions based on price action, policy developments, and interest rate expectations, making a broad sentiment-driven rally unlikely in the near term.

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After Three Consecutive Quarters of Decline, Can the Crypto Market Find a Window for Stabilization in Q3?

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BIT Trading Moment: BTC Still Suppressed by Weekly 200 EMA, Rejection May Restart Decline; Storage and Semiconductors that Surged Last Night Begin Falling in Evening Trading

**Crypto & Stock Market Wrap: Bitcoin Tests Resistance, Stocks Retreat After AI Surge** Bitcoin consolidates around $66,000, facing key resistance near $68,000—an area seen as a major psychological and technical hurdle where previous rallies have failed. Analysts note the cryptocurrency is caught between its 200-week moving average (~$63,333) and 200-week EMA (~$68,328). A clear break above $68k is needed to signal a stronger bullish trend, while a rejection could lead to a retest of $63k support. Market sentiment remains cautious, with low futures open interest pointing to a low-liquidity rebound rather than a full bull market. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw another $203 million inflow. US stock futures pointed lower after a strong Tuesday session led by a massive rebound in semiconductors and memory stocks. The rally was fueled by renewed optimism about AI-driven hardware demand, with Micron, SanDisk, and SK Hynix surging. However, those gains reversed in pre-market trading. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) soared over 20% after hours on strong guidance and a record backlog. Other standouts included Rocket Lab and nuclear energy plays Oklo and X-Energy. Rising oil prices (Brent above $91) and climbing Treasury yields (10-year near 4.64%), however, are reigniting inflation concerns and acting as a headwind for equities. In Asia, markets were mixed. South Korea's KOSPI pared early gains to close slightly higher as semiconductor stocks like SK Hynix gave back initial surges. Japan's Nikkei edged lower as the yen hit a fresh 38-year low against the dollar, raising fears of potential market intervention. Key events to watch include the Samsung Galaxy launch, AMD's AI event, and a slew of major tech earnings from Alphabet, Tesla, and IBM after the close on Wednesday, followed by the ECB meeting and Intel's earnings on Thursday.

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BIT Trading Moment: BTC Still Suppressed by Weekly 200 EMA, Rejection May Restart Decline; Storage and Semiconductors that Surged Last Night Begin Falling in Evening Trading

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Former CFTC Chairman, Circle President Tarbert: Preaching Long-Termism While Cashing Out $30 Million Himself

Former CFTC Chairman and Circle President Heath Tarbert has consistently advocated for a long-term vision in public, urging patience from investors as Circle’s stock price has fallen significantly from its peak. However, it has been revealed that since Circle’s IPO, Tarbert has continuously sold his CRCL shares through pre-arranged trading plans, cashing out approximately $30 million, without making any public market purchases. This contrast between his public messaging and personal actions has drawn criticism. Tarbert joined Circle in July 2023 as Chief Legal Officer, leveraging his regulatory experience to help guide the company through its IPO and expansion. Despite promoting stablecoins as long-term infrastructure, he established a 10b5-1 trading plan just before Circle went public, leading to substantial stock sales over the following year. In March 2026, he initiated another plan to sell more shares. His career trajectory highlights a pattern of moving between high-level regulatory roles and influential positions in the financial sector. After resigning as CFTC Chairman in early 2021, he joined Citadel Securities as Chief Legal Officer just 27 days later, during a period of intense regulatory scrutiny for the firm. He later joined Circle, aiding its efforts to navigate regulatory challenges for its public listing. While Tarbert's expertise in policy and compliance is valuable to companies like Circle, his actions—advocating long-term confidence while personally divesting—raise questions about the alignment between his public statements and his private financial decisions, leaving investors who followed his advice to bear the market risks.

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Former CFTC Chairman, Circle President Tarbert: Preaching Long-Termism While Cashing Out $30 Million Himself

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Gate Research Institute: The 'Wall Street-ization' Wave of Crypto Financial Products – Competition or Integration?

The article titled "Gate Research Institute: Are Crypto Financial Products Sparking a 'Wall Street' Wave—Competition or Convergence?" explores the evolving relationship between the crypto ecosystem and traditional finance (TradFi). The piece begins by reflecting on Bitcoin's original 2009 vision of decentralization, disintermediation, and moving away from banks. It then contrasts this with the 2024 landscape, where key crypto assets like Bitcoin are increasingly held through Wall Street products like ETFs issued by giants like BlackRock. The article questions whether this signifies that TradFi is systematically taking over the rights to issue, price, custody, and distribute crypto financial assets. The core argument is that this is not a zero-sum takeover but rather a bidirectional convergence where each side addresses the other's weaknesses. Crypto offers 24/7 global markets, programmable settlement, and open access but lacks compliant channels, institutional-grade custody, deep fiat liquidity, and mainstream distribution. TradFi possesses these but is constrained by legacy systems, limited operating hours, and slow settlement. Two primary convergence paths are highlighted: * **Path A (CEX to TradFi):** Exemplified by Gate, which has progressed from offering tokenized stocks and CFDs to providing direct, real stock trading (US, Hong Kong, South Korea) within its platform, using USDT. * **Path B (TradFi to Crypto):** Exemplified by Robinhood, which has integrated crypto trading, acquired exchanges like Bitstamp, and is moving traditional assets like stocks onto the blockchain via tokenization and its own Layer 2. Both paths are ultimately competing to become the next-generation, unified financial account—a "super account" where users can seamlessly trade cryptocurrencies, stocks, ETFs, RWA (Real World Assets), and tokenized treasury products in one interface. The growth of RWA and tokenized treasuries (e.g., BlackRock's BUIDL) is presented as the asset-layer fusion, providing stable, yield-bearing assets on-chain and acting as a bridge between the two worlds. In conclusion, the "Wall Street-ization" of crypto is framed as a mutual transformation. Decentralized ideals persist in the protocol layer, while at the application layer, a more efficient, global, and accessible unified capital market is emerging from this convergence. The future competition lies not between crypto exchanges and stockbrokers, but between platforms vying to offer the most comprehensive asset coverage, liquidity, and user experience within a single account.

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Gate Research Institute: The 'Wall Street-ization' Wave of Crypto Financial Products – Competition or Integration?

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