Analysts and investors are questioning why crypto isn’t in a bull market, given the amount of positive drivers that have taken place this year.
“At some point, we need to admit that something is structurally broken in the crypto market,” CNBC crypto contributor Ran Neuner said on Tuesday.
He said that multiple favorable factors should be leading to crypto markets performing better, such as increased liquidity, a pro-crypto US government, various exchange-traded fund launches, major institutional and crypto treasury company buying, and strong performance in traditional markets such as gold, silver, and major stock indexes.
However, crypto markets are on track to end the year lower than when they began, with the total market capitalization falling more than 32% from its all-time high of $4.4 trillion in early October and almost 13% down from Jan. 1.
Two possible outcomes for crypto
Neuner said there were two possible outcomes for crypto: discovery of “what’s actually broken and who is selling” or the “mother of all catch-up trades because that’s how markets work.”
Economist Adam Kobeissi said that “one day, we will look back at the last 2 months of seemingly daily mass crypto liquidations and what’s happening will be crystal clear:”
“Crypto is experiencing a structural shift amid historic levels of leverage.”
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Analyst “PlanB” called it an “epic battle until sellers are out of ammo,” explaining that selling pressure is still coming from “OGs traumatized by 2021,” technical investors looking at relative strength index, and those who believe in the four-year cycle and that a bear market is due.
Crypto winter is already here
Meanwhile, some analysts are convinced that the bear market is already underway.
“Bitcoin entered a bear market in late October 2025, becoming the first major risk asset to price in a slowing economy,” 10x Research CEO Markus Thielen told Cointelegraph.
“Retail participation never meaningfully returned this cycle, and value creation remained narrowly concentrated in Bitcoin rather than broadening across risk assets. Winter isn’t approaching; it has already arrived.”
Things aren’t that bad, really
Despite the poor performance of spot markets, the industry’s fundamentals remain solid.
“While prices may have fallen short of expectations, this year delivered more structural progress than any in crypto’s history,” Erik Lowe, head of content at blockchain venture firm Pantera, said in a report on Tuesday.
Like Neuner, he listed several milestone achievements for the industry this year, including a shift in staff and stance at US financial regulators, the establishment of a US strategic Bitcoin reserve and digital asset stockpile, and increases in stablecoin supplies and onchain value of tokenized real-world assets.
“From that perspective, we believe there hasn’t been a more important year for the industry than 2025. This is the year we began laying the deep caissons to support durable, long-term growth.”
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