Cardano’s $0.244 defense returns, but will on-chain activity pull ADA down?

ambcryptoPubblicato 2026-02-16Pubblicato ultima volta 2026-02-16

Introduzione

Cardano (ADA) has declined by 5% in the past 24 hours and continues to struggle after falling out of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap. It is currently trading above a key support level at $0.244, which has historically been a significant demand zone. Despite breaking below the 9 EMA, the 21 EMA remains strong, and the Chaikin Money Flow indicates capital inflow. Market sentiment is mixed: retail and whale accounts are largely long on ADA, while smart money remains bearish. On-chain activity has been lackluster, with stagnant active addresses and no growth in stablecoin market cap since August 2025. Although trading volume has seen a gradual increase, liquidity concerns persist. The altcoin's future direction remains uncertain due to these conflicting signals.

Cardano [ADA], which lost 5% in the past 24 hours, is still struggling a week after falling out of the top 10 most-capped cryptos.

The gap between ADA and Bitcoin Cash [BCH], which is at position ten, was widening as it was more than $1.20 billion.

The altcoin has persistently displayed weakness, yet the recent support level may mark a significant turning point.

Cardano holds above a key support level

On the three-day chart, Cardano was trading above a demand zone that bulls had defended since mid-2023. The zone at $0.244 initiated the move that reached $1.186 as 2024 came to a close.

On the 4-hour chart, the $0.537 zone was above where the current downtrend started. Price broke above this descending trendline resistance and was retesting it.

However, the altcoin was trading between the two short-term EMAs. Cardano had broken below the 9 EMA, but the 21 EMA was still holding strong.

On the capital flow side, money was moving into ADA, as seen in the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which was at 0.15. This was evident from the data on ADA Futures: longs vs. shorts.

Whales and retail go long

Whales, retail, and smart money had different views. However, in some instances, whales and retail appeared to align, while smart money remained generally bearish.

As per CoinGlass data, the Long/Short Ratio on Binance was bullish, with retail at 2.48, whale accounts at 2.77, and whale positions at 1.58. Smart money sentiment was extremely bearish even on Bybit.

OKX and Bybit had the same sentiment, but whale positions on both were bearish, at 0.78 and 0.97, respectively. This meant that whales and retail were buying while smart money was selling.

Apart from the lack of clarity in the price direction due to this mixed sentiment, activity was also not looking promising.

Cardano lags on-chain!

As per data from Token Terminal, the daily trading volume of the past week has been growing gradually. This was after a drop from the week’s high of $614 million.

When writing, the volume was at $549 million, a gradual increase from this week’s daily low of $364 million.

Additionally, active addresses have been stagnant since last year in March, even though there have been a few spikes. There were only 17,691 active addresses on the day.

Moreover, its stablecoin market cap had not shown growth since August of 2025. This indicated that liquidity could be a problem despite the high cumulative trading volume.


Final Summary

  • Cardano trades above its most important support level with whales and retail going long.
  • ADA was experiencing lagging network activity, which explained why the altcoin had dropped so hard.

Domande pertinenti

QWhat is the key support level that Cardano (ADA) is currently trading above, and why is it significant?

ACardano is trading above the $0.244 support level, which is significant because it is a demand zone that bulls have defended since mid-2023 and it initiated the price surge that reached $1.186 by the end of 2024.

QAccording to the data from CoinGlass, what was the sentiment of whales, retail, and smart money regarding ADA on Binance?

AOn Binance, the sentiment was bullish for retail (Long/Short Ratio of 2.48) and whales (2.77), while smart money was extremely bearish.

QWhat does the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) value of 0.15 indicate about the capital flow for ADA?

AA Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) value of 0.15 indicates that money was moving into ADA, suggesting positive capital inflow.

QWhat two on-chain metrics are highlighted as concerning or stagnant for the Cardano network?

AThe two concerning on-chain metrics are stagnant active addresses, with only 17,691 on the day, and a stablecoin market cap that has not shown growth since August 2025, indicating potential liquidity issues.

QWhat was the gap in market capitalization between ADA and the crypto in the 10th position (Bitcoin Cash) at the time of writing?

AThe gap in market capitalization between Cardano (ADA) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) in the 10th position was more than $1.20 billion.

Letture associate

Yao Shunyu's 88 Days

Yao Shunyu, a 27-year-old AI expert with a background from Princeton and OpenAI, joined Tencent in September 2025. Within 88 days, he led a major overhaul of Tencent’s AI strategy and organization, resulting in the release of Hunyuan Hy3 preview—a MoE model with 295B total parameters and 21B active parameters, supporting up to 256K context length. The launch came after Tencent leadership, including CEO Ma Huateng and President Martin Lau, openly criticized Hunyuan's earlier underperformance—citing slow development, over-reliance on superficial benchmark optimization, and poor generalization in real-world applications. Internal adoption was low, with key business units like WeChat and gaming seeking external AI solutions. Yao reshaped Tencent’s AI approach by integrating previously siloed teams, dissolving the ten-year-old Tencent AI Lab, and establishing new units focused on AI infrastructure and data. Hy3 preview was developed using co-design principles, closely aligned with product teams to ensure practical usability from the start. It has already been integrated into core products like Yuanbao, QQ, and enterprise tools. The release signals a shift from chasing rankings to building usable, scalable AI grounded in Tencent’s ecosystem. While external partnerships (like with DeepSeek and OpenClaw) helped retain users temporarily, the focus is now on making Hunyuan a reliable internal foundation. The real test lies in sustaining this new organizational momentum amid fierce competition from Alibaba, DeepSeek, and others.

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Yao Shunyu's 88 Days

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