For several days now, Bitcoin has been fluctuating around the $63,500 level, making no attempts to rise above the $64,000 resistance while holding above the $60,000 low. However, as stated by Yusuf Fahro, a partner at ARP Digital, the capital flow has changed.
According to him, over the five days starting in May, U.S. spot ETFs attracted over 14,000 $BTC, which is the strongest figure since May, and in the third quarter, the net inflow was approximately 11,000 $BTC, compared to an outflow of 110,000 $BTC in the latter half of the second quarter. Institutional selling, which defined the second quarter, has been replaced by buying.
Fahro noted that spot volumes have fallen to two-year lows, perpetual volumes to three-year lows, and volatility is near multi-year lows.
The emergence of demand on the thinnest market in recent years, when no one is paying attention, is how sustainable lows are typically formed. The expert interprets Bitcoin's six-month stagnation between $60,000 and $80,000 as summer apathy. However, blockchain data is beginning to show signs of a bottom forming as sentiment shifts from panic to caution.
Risk exists on both sides. Bitcoin is stuck in a tight range below $64,000 and above $62,000, and leverage only amplifies this risk. Throughout the summer, open interest in perpetual swaps remained above 300,000 $BTC, which is above the average level, while trading volumes have sharply declined. The latter circumstance makes the market vulnerable to a sharp liquidation move in either direction.
The current HCN AI Analyst forecast for $BTC at a price of $63,338 is neutral: signal 52/100, confidence 64/100, mode—risk outflow, horizon 7 days. The base scenario with a 47% probability suggests $BTC reaching $62,249 (−1.70%), bearish—$60,982 (−3.70%) with a 32% probability, bullish—$64,098 (+1.20%) with only 21%.
The probability-weighted expectation aligns with the base scenario and is approximately −1.7%, with the risk of a downward move being three times greater in amplitude and one and a half times more likely than the upward potential. Subindices explain the skew: technical analysis at 40 and momentum at 43 are below neutral, and the final score of 52 is held almost exclusively by liquidity at 58, meaning price and trend are weakly discernible, and for now, only the inflow of funds is protecting the market from a collapse. The practical weekly boundaries are narrow—4.9% of spot: a return above $64,098 flips momentum, a break below $62,249 opens the path to $60,982.
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