Written by: Ola Ξlixir
Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
ICOs are the hottest topic on crypto Twitter right now, and everyone is talking about them.
Everyone thinks they've found the next MegaETH or Plasma.
But most people are overlooking one key point:
Only a small fraction of these ICOs will actually make money; that's how the crypto market has always been.
One project pioneers a model, and it succeeds.
Then ten teams copy it, thinking they can replicate that success, but it's hard to duplicate, and eight or nine out of ten will fail.
Right now, every team wants to do an ICO, just because MegaETH and Plasma are hot.
They figure, instead of giving you an airdrop, why not have you pay to "get in."
However, those two projects succeeded because they were well-planned before execution.
So, before you invest in any ICO, consider the following points.
1. The Product is Fundamental
Ignore the flashy PowerPoints and the hype posts from KOLs.
Just ask a simple question:
Does this product actually solve a real problem today? Does it have genuine innovation? Why do they need to issue a token?
If the product only exists in a "future story" or requires a bunch of assumptions to work, that's dangerous.
Good ICOs usually have something actually running, not just empty promises or testnet data.
If they can't explain what the product does in one sentence, that's your first red flag.
2. The Team Matters
The quality of a project depends on the strength of the team behind it.
Look at the team's track record:
Have they built products before, in crypto or elsewhere?
Experience is a plus; it shows they've been down this road.
An anonymous team isn't necessarily a bad thing,
but they must deliver exceptional results to earn trust.
When the market shifts, strong teams adapt;
weak teams vanish as soon as the hype dies down. This is an "attention economy."
3. Investors and Valuation
Who invested in this project? Top-tier VCs or third-rate funds?
How much did they raise? What's the valuation? This is more important than many think.
If insiders and early investors got in at extremely low valuations, you're likely their "exit liquidity."
A good ICO's valuation makes sense even without hype;
a bad ICO relies on buzz and vanity metrics to justify its price.
4. Look at Real Data, Not Surface Numbers
Do they have real revenue? What are the active user numbers and Total Value Locked (TVL)?
Most importantly, the quality of this data—any data can be faked.
Testnet data is meaningless if it's easy to manipulate.
A dashboard full of fake activity won't magically turn into real usage—Monad is a prime example.
See if user demand is organic: are people willing to use the product without incentives,
or are they just there for a potential airdrop?
5. Marketing and Narrative Power
Marketing is more important than many realize.
MegaETH's marketing was executed masterfully.
The team controlled everything, perfectly steering the narrative.
Everyone was actively discussing MegaETH.
In the Web3 world, attention is everything.
If an ICO gets no attention before launch, don't expect miracles afterward—again, think Monad.
Good projects know how to tell their story clearly from the start.
Bad projects hide behind buzzwords: "We're building Web3's next ChatGPT + Nvidia + prediction market..." Nice story.
6. Offering Terms and Valuation
Read the terms carefully:
-
Token unlock rules
-
Vesting schedule
-
Circulating supply
-
Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) at listing
Understanding the full tokenomics is crucial. If you can't, use AI tools to help analyze it.
If the ICO structure heavily favors insiders and dumps all the risk on retail, stay away.
A fair launch doesn't mean cheap; it means the interests of the project and participants are aligned.
7. Market Conditions are Key
This is the most easily overlooked point.
In a real bull market, a decent project can hit a $500M to $1B FDV on narrative alone.
Right now, even the hottest projects often cap out at $100M to $300M valuations.
This directly impacts your risk-reward calculation.
The same project can have wildly different outcomes in different markets.
Timing isn't everything, but it's never irrelevant.
Final Thoughts
ICOs are not free money; they never were.
The current trend will create some winners and leave a long list of lessons.
Don't buy just because everyone else is, or because a KOL you like is shilling it.
Don't assume every promoted project will be the next MegaETH.
The worst projects will just exploit your FOMO and hype-chasing mentality, with zero substance.
