Author:Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise
Compiled by: Hu Tao, ChainCatcher
We have been in a crypto winter since January 2025. It's likely that we are closer to the end of this winter than to its beginning.
We are in the midst of a full-blown crypto winter.
Crypto Twitter has only recently begun to realize this, but it is undeniable. Bitcoin is down 39% from its all-time high in October 2025, Ethereum is down 53%, and many other crypto assets have fallen even more.
This is not a "bull market correction" or a "slight dip." This is a full-blown, Leonardo DiCaprio-in-The-Revenant-(2012)-level crypto winter—caused by factors such as excessive leverage and widespread profit-taking by seasoned players.
Recognizing and accepting this is enlightening.
Why are crypto prices still falling despite positive news about adoption, regulation, and other areas? Because we are in the depths of a crypto winter.
Why is the new Fed Chair a Bitcoin supporter, yet the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is near historic highs? Because we are in a crypto winter.
Crypto investors who have lived through past winters (be it 2018 or 2022) should remember that at the deepest points of the winter, good news meant nothing. Wall Street hiring aggressively or Morgan Stanley increasing its crypto investments did not drive a crypto market rally. These factors might matter in the long run, but not now. The end of a crypto winter is not exciting; it is exhausting.
So, when will the winter end?
The good news is: We are closer to the end than you think.
The History of Crypto Winters
Crypto winters typically last about 13 months. For example, Bitcoin peaked in December 2017 and bottomed in December 2018. It peaked again in October 2021 and bottomed in November 2022.
By that measure, we are in for a tough time. After all, Bitcoin's peak was in October 2025. Are we really going to have to wait until next November to get back in?
I don't think so.
The more time I spend analyzing the current "winter," the more I realize it actually began in January 2025. It's just that ETF and Digital Asset Trust (DAT) flows masked the truth, preventing us from seeing it.
ETF and DAT Flows Masked the 2025 Winter
Take a closer look at this chart of the components of the Bitwise 10 Large Cap Crypto Index since January 1, 2025.
It is divided into three clear groups. The first group of assets (BTC, ETH, XRP) performed okay, down 10.3% to 19.9%. The second group (SOL, LTC, LINK) experienced a standard bear market, down 36.9% to 46.2%. But the third group (ADA, AVAX, SUI, DOT) was hit hard, with declines as high as 61.9% to 74.7%.
The fundamental difference between these three groups lies in the ability of institutional investors to invest in them. The first group benefited from strong ETF/DAT support throughout the year (or, in the case of XRP, from winning its lawsuit against the SEC); the second group had ETFs expected to be approved in 20251; and the third group never received such support.
Look at what happened to the third group, which relied solely on crypto-native channels for support!
The institutional support received by the first group was unprecedented. For example, during the period shown in the chart, ETFs and DATs bought 744,417 bitcoins, worth approximately $75 billion. Imagine where Bitcoin would be without that $75 billion in support? I estimate it would be down about 60%.
The retail crypto market has been in a severe winter since January 2025. Institutional investors merely masked this fact for certain assets.
The Darkest Hour Is Just Before the Dawn
What needs to be remembered now is that there is indeed a lot of good news in the crypto space. Regulatory progress is real. Institutional adoption is real. Stablecoins and tokenization are real. Wall Street's acceptance is real.
Good news tends to be ignored in bear markets, but it doesn't disappear. It is stored as potential energy. When the gloom lifts and market sentiment returns to normal, this stored energy will return with a vengeance.
What can lift the gloom? Strong economic growth triggering a wave of aggressive risk-on sentiment, positive surprises from the Clarity Act, signs of Bitcoin recognition by sovereign nations, or simply the passage of time.
As a veteran of multiple crypto winters, I can tell you that the feeling at the end of those winters felt very much like it does now: despair, frustration, and listlessness. But the current market correction has not fundamentally changed anything about crypto.
I believe we will bounce back strongly soon. After all, if it has felt like winter from January 2025 until now, spring must surely be just around the corner.
