River [RIVER] has rallied 25% in 24 hours and was up 11% for the week. Its strong short-term gains saw a sizeable spike in Open Interest (OI), according to Coinalyze data. The OI has rocketed higher by 42%, showing speculators were eager to ride the RIVER trend higher.
This speculative interest was not accompanied by strong spot demand, based on the spot CVD indicator. At the same time, the funding rate was also negative, showing short sellers were active.
Technical analysis showed that RIVER could be turning its trend bullish, even though the short-term indicators flashed warning signals.
The bullish case for RIVER
The strong short-term gains and speculative interest do not always translate into a sustainable trend. On this occasion, River bulls might be able to shift the trend in their favor once again.
The high volatility in late January and early February saw RIVER rally to $88.7 and fall by 82% within a week. It eventually made a swing low at $7.1. However, it was the swing high at $24.2 made on the way down that is interesting to us now.
This level was breached on Wednesday, the 18th of March. It signified a bullish structure shift on the 1-day timeframe. Moreover, the $18.38 former local resistance has been tested as support and has held up well.
The CMF was at +0.01 but had been above +0.05 in recent days to show strong capital inflows. The MACD also made a bullish crossover and has climbed back above the zero line to signal bullish momentum.
This momentum can likely be sustained. In the coming days, a retracement toward $18 or even lower is possible.
Should traders buy the dip or wait for a breakout?
The structure on the 2-hour chart was bearish. The indicators also signaled that short-term momentum was in favor of the sellers, and the CMF was below -0.05.
This meant that River traders can expect a deeper price dip in the next few days. The immediate target is $15 for a retracement, with a possible drop to $11 in case of a heavy Bitcoin [BTC] sell-off.
At the same time, a move back above $28.7 would indicate a breakout. Traders should be prepared to buy the breakout, while also being ready to watch for a bullish reaction at $15 and $17 in case of a price dip.
Final Summary
- River exhibited a bullish price structure on the 1-day timeframe.
- Buyers can keep an eye on the altcoin. The $28 and the $15-$17 levels were the most important nearby levels that buyers would want to enter the market at.
