Strategy Watch: February

insights.glassnodePubblicato 2026-03-03Pubblicato ultima volta 2026-03-03

Introduzione

Glassnode launches Strategy Watch, a monthly newsletter analyzing fund performance and allocation trends in digital assets. The February 2026 edition reports a sharp negative shift in capital flows for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins since late October 2025, signaling weakening institutional demand and a defensive market regime. ETF and Digital Asset Trust (DAT) net flows have also softened, indicating slowing institutional interest. Additionally, Ethereum's DeFi Total Value Locked (TVL) has been declining since August 2025, reflecting reduced conviction in DeFi yields. The CME basis yield for both Bitcoin and Ethereum has compressed significantly, suggesting a pullback in institutional leverage and market-neutral strategies.

The full report is available in PDF format.

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Welcome to Strategy Watch

In a rapidly evolving market, where traders and funds chase returns amid volatility, while asset allocators seek data-driven conviction for long-term positioning, Glassnode occupies a unique vantage point. Our on-chain and wider market intelligence has served as a cornerstone for both groups since 2018, earning their trust through consistent, impartial data, analytics and research.

A core Glassnode belief is that genuine insight in digital assets comes from neutrality and depth, unbiased data that empowers decisions across the ecosystem. That is why we are thrilled to launch Strategy Watch, a new monthly newsletter dedicated to the analysis of fund-level performance and allocation trends in digital assets.

We hope to bring value by regularly delivering clear, high-signal analysis of capital flows, head-to-head strategy performance benchmarks, and the most important allocation moves actually being made by institutions and funds. But this is just the beginning. We are actively exploring ways to bridge these worlds further, and would love your feedback as Strategy Watch evolves.

Inside the Latest Strategy Watch

You'll find a wealth of insides spread across 6 sections:

Institutional Flow Monitor
Fund and SMA Performance
On-chain Vault Performance
Manager Monitor
Allocation Updates

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Institutional Flow Monitor

Since late October 2025, capital flows to BTC, ETH and Stablecoins have turned negative sharply.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Stablecoins have seen a clear slowdown in capital inflows, signalling weakening demand and a structural contraction in liquidity. All three assets have now shifted into net outflow, with Bitcoin at –$8.4B per month, Ethereum at –$3.8B, and stablecoins at –$6.4B. This broad-based drawdown across core crypto assets reflects a defensive regime, where institutional capital is de-risking rather than re-entering risk positions. This negative trend has further accelerated as of January 2026.

ETF & DAT Net Flows

ETF & DAT net flows remain positive, but weakened, signalling slowing institutional demand.

Net flows into these vehicles act as a proxy for institutional demand. In Q4 2025 and early January, institutions were net sellers through the ETF channel, with Bitcoin ETF outflows approximating –35.8k BTC per month and Ethereum ETF flows around –257.6k ETH per month. Over the same period, DATs saw strong inflows in August 2025 driven by new product launches, but buy pressure has since softened; nonetheless, flows into DATs remain positive, indicating ongoing, albeit weaker, institutional interest via balance-sheet exposure.

DeFi TVL & Stablecoin Cap

TVL on Ethereum has been declining since August 2025, signalling softer conviction in DeFi yield curves.

DeFi has served as another active playground for institutional capital through strategies such as liquidity provisioning, collateralized lending, and structured yield harvesting. Total Value Locked (TVL) on Ethereum, began to shrink from August 2025 onward, and is now declining at approximately –$15.3M per month. A contraction in TVL implies that larger allocators are withdrawing from on-chain financial services, reducing liquidity depth and signalling softer conviction in DeFi yield and risk-adjusted returns relative to alternative venues.

CME Basis Yield

Contraction signals are waning incentive for market-neutral strategies.

Another key dimension of institutional engagement is the CME Basis Yield, which estimates the monthly dollar value earned by institutions from cash-and-carry strategies, capturing the premium between spot prices and CME calendar futures. Since August 2025, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen a sharp compression in this yield, with Bitcoin declining from approximately $136.6M to $38.6M per month, and Ethereum from $47.5M to $14.8M per month. This contraction rreflects reduced leverage deployment, softer futures demand, and a broader pullback in balance-sheet commitment amid tightening liquidity conditions.

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Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for information and educational purposes only. No investment decision shall be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies. Please read our Transparency Notice when using exchange data.

Domande pertinenti

QWhat is the main purpose of Glassnode's new Strategy Watch newsletter?

AStrategy Watch is a monthly newsletter dedicated to the analysis of fund-level performance and allocation trends in digital assets, providing clear analysis of capital flows, strategy performance benchmarks, and institutional allocation moves.

QWhich three core crypto assets have experienced a shift into net capital outflows according to the report?

ABitcoin, Ethereum, and Stablecoins have all shifted into net outflow, with Bitcoin at -$8.4B per month, Ethereum at -$3.8B, and stablecoins at -$6.4B.

QWhat does the contraction in CME Basis Yield for Bitcoin and Ethereum indicate about institutional activity?

AThe contraction in CME Basis Yield indicates reduced leverage deployment, softer futures demand, and a broader pullback in balance-sheet commitment amid tightening liquidity conditions, showing waning incentive for market-neutral strategies.

QHow many sections is the Strategy Watch report organized into, and what are two of them?

AThe report is organized into 6 sections, including Institutional Flow Monitor, Fund and SMA Performance, On-chain Vault Performance, Manager Monitor, and Allocation Updates.

QWhat trend does the declining Total Value Locked (TVL) on Ethereum signal about institutional behavior in DeFi?

AThe declining TVL on Ethereum signals that larger allocators are withdrawing from on-chain financial services, reducing liquidity depth and showing softer conviction in DeFi yield and risk-adjusted returns relative to alternative venues.

Letture associate

The $290 Million Deficit: A Three-Way Game Between Aave, L0, and Kelp—Who Should Foot the Bill?

An incident involving the theft of 116,500 rsETH (worth approximately $290 million) from Kelp DAO’s cross-chain bridge contract has triggered a complex dispute over responsibility and compensation among Kelp DAO, LayerZero, and Aave. The attack occurred due to a compromised RPC provider used by LayerZero’s Decentralized Verifier Network (DVN). Since Kelp DAO’s bridge used a 1/1 DVN configuration—a single point of failure—the attacker successfully forged a cross-chain message, leading to the unauthorized release of rsETH tokens from the mainnet. These genuine tokens were then deposited into Aave and other lending platforms to borrow WETH, enabling the attacker to exit with the funds. Responsibility is attributed primarily to Kelp DAO for its risky 1/1 DVN setup. LayerZero bears secondary responsibility for permitting such a vulnerable configuration in its protocol layer. Aave also shares indirect blame for over-collateralizing rsETH and other Liquid Restaking Token (LRT) assets without adequate ongoing risk oversight. Kelp DAO lacks sufficient funds to cover the loss, shifting focus to the deeper-pocketed players: LayerZero, whose cross-chain ecosystem and reputation are at risk, and Aave, which faces massive bad loans and declining Total Value Locked (TVL). Aave has asserted that mainnet rsETH remains fully backed, implying it expects Kelp DAO to allow redemption of underlying ETH. This approach would preserve Aave’s mainnet positions but invalidate Layer2 rsETH, damaging LayerZero’s cross-chain credibility. Potential solutions include: - A universal 18.5% haircut on all rsETH holders, causing significant Aave bad debt. - Writing off Layer2 rsETH entirely, protecting Aave mainnet but harming LayerZero and Kelp DAO. - Negotiating a bounty with the hacker for partial fund return. - A joint bailout, possibly led by LayerZero’s ecosystem fund, given its long-term stake in the cross-chain ecosystem. The situation remains unresolved as the parties negotiate, but prolonged delay risks broader DeFi instability, including potential liquidity crises and loss of confidence in LRT and cross-chain infrastructures.

Odaily星球日报12 min fa

The $290 Million Deficit: A Three-Way Game Between Aave, L0, and Kelp—Who Should Foot the Bill?

Odaily星球日报12 min fa

Bitcoin's Bull-Bear Range Battle Continues, HYPE Faces Critical Test of Wave V Support | Exclusive Analysis

This market analysis covers Bitcoin (BTC) and HYPE, highlighting key levels and trading strategies for the week. HYPE is currently testing a critical support level at $40.17. A hold above this level could lead to consolidation between $40.17–$45.76, while a break below it may signal the end of its current V-wave uptrend from the April 2 low. The short-term strategy is to look for long entries near $40.17 if support holds, using 30% leverage and strict stop-loss discipline. Bitcoin is interpreted to be in a larger D-wave rebound from the February 6 low of $60,000, currently trading within a $73,500–$79,000 range. Key resistance lies at $79,000–$80,600 and $83,500–$84,500, with supports at $73,500, $69,500, and $65,000–$66,000. The medium-term strategy maintains a 60% short position from $89,000. Short-term tactics include selling into rallies near $76,500–$79,000 (Scenario A) or breaking below $73,500 (Scenario B), using 30% leverage. Last week, a 1x leveraged long trade in HYPE yielded a 6.80% gain, and the BTC short from $89,000 is currently up approximately 17.08%. Risk management is emphasized: set stop-losses at entry, move to breakeven at +1% profit, and trail stops to lock in gains thereafter. All views are based on technical analysis and are not investment advice. Traders are urged to exercise caution and adapt to market changes.

marsbit43 min fa

Bitcoin's Bull-Bear Range Battle Continues, HYPE Faces Critical Test of Wave V Support | Exclusive Analysis

marsbit43 min fa

Bitcoin's Bull-Bear Range Battle Continues, HYPE Faces Critical Test of Wave V Support | Invited Analysis

The market is experiencing directional uncertainty with both opportunities and risks. HYPE's daily V-wave structure is at a critical juncture, with the $40.17 support level being pivotal for its future trajectory. A break below this level, followed by an inability to surpass the recent high of $45.76, could signal the end of the current upward structure. The short-term strategy for HYPE is to "follow the trend and buy on dips," using a 30% position size and a 30/60-minute trading cycle, entering long upon confirmed support holds with model signals. Bitcoin's market structure is reinterpreted, with the rally from the $60,000 low now considered a larger D-wave rebound within a medium-term correction, facing a key test between $73,500 and $79,000. A break above the upper bound may lead to limited upside, while a drop below could see a decline toward $69,500. Core resistance lies at $79,000–$80,600 and $83,500–$84,500, with support at $73,500, $69,500, and $65,000–$66,000. The medium-term strategy maintains a 60% short position from $89,000, to be exited if price stabilizes above the multi-empty band. Short-term tactics involve 30% positions for "spread" opportunities, with two scenarios: selling on rallies near $76,500–$79,000 (Scheme A) or shorting on a breakdown below $73,500 (Scheme B), both with strict stop-losses. A复盘 of HYPE's recent short trade showed a 6.80% gain from a long entry at $41.59 (based on model buy signals) and exit at $44.42 (triggered by top signals). Key reminders include setting initial stops at entry, moving to breakeven at +1% profit, and trailing stops thereafter. All views are for reference only; market conditions change rapidly, and caution is advised.

Odaily星球日报50 min fa

Bitcoin's Bull-Bear Range Battle Continues, HYPE Faces Critical Test of Wave V Support | Invited Analysis

Odaily星球日报50 min fa

On the Same Day Aave Introduced rsETH, Why Did Spark Choose to Exit?

On April 18, Kelp DAO's cross-chain bridge was exploited, resulting in the malicious minting of 116,500 unbacked rsETH. The attacker deposited these into Aave and borrowed WETH, creating a potential bad debt of approximately $195 million. Aave’s Guardian quickly froze the market, but the protocol’s insurance could only cover about 25% of the loss. In contrast, SparkLend, a lending protocol in the MakerDAO ecosystem, suffered no direct losses. This was not due to superior foresight but rather a preemptive governance decision. On January 29, Spark executed a governance action to discontinue new rsETH supply, citing low usage and high concentration from a single wallet. The same day, Aave expanded its rsETH market by enabling E-Mode with a 93% LTV to attract more deposits. Spark’s risk management framework is designed to remove assets with low usage or poor risk-adjusted returns, regardless of external security concerns. Aave’s decision was growth-oriented, aiming to boost WETH utilization and attract capital. Spark also employs additional safeguards: rate-limited supply and borrow caps that would have limited the scale of such an attack, and a robust oracle system using the median of three price feeds. These mechanisms systemically contain the maximum exposure to any single risk event, demonstrating a fundamentally different approach to risk than Aave’s growth-first model.

marsbit50 min fa

On the Same Day Aave Introduced rsETH, Why Did Spark Choose to Exit?

marsbit50 min fa

Strategy's 'Money Printer': Is STRC Bitcoin's Savior or Destroyer?

Bitcoin's recent price movement is being heavily influenced by Michael Saylor and his company, MicroStrategy, through a new financial instrument: STRC (Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock). This Nasdaq-listed perpetual preferred stock offers an 11.5% annual dividend, attracting significant capital. Crucially, funds raised from STRC are used to purchase Bitcoin, with a 3x leverage effect—for every $1 from STRC, MicroStrategy adds $2 from MSTR equity to buy $3 worth of BTC. This creates a powerful "flywheel": more STRC sales fuel massive BTC buying, supporting its price and improving MicroStrategy's credit, which in turn makes STRC more attractive to investors. However, this mechanism introduces risks. A significant "ex-dividend arbitrage" pattern has emerged, where traders buy STRC before its monthly dividend, collect the payout, and quickly sell, causing price volatility and potentially driving up Bitcoin's cost basis for MicroStrategy. In response, Saylor has proposed shifting STRC to a semi-monthly dividend to smooth out these effects. Furthermore, STRC's high yield is being integrated into DeFi protocols like Apyx Protocol and Saturn Credit, offering new on-chain yield opportunities. The central concern remains: as MicroStrategy aggressively accumulates over 3.5% of all BTC, it challenges Bitcoin's foundational principle of decentralization, creating a system where a single public company significantly influences the market.

marsbit58 min fa

Strategy's 'Money Printer': Is STRC Bitcoin's Savior or Destroyer?

marsbit58 min fa

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