Written by: Trend Research
On Tuesday, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed lower. The S&P 500 fell 0.32% to 7728.20 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.34% to 53791.85 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.60% to 26445.446 points. The Russell 2000 bucked the trend and rose 0.32%. Pressure came from two directions: repeated tensions in the Strait of Hormuz suppressed risk appetite, and AI financing concerns weighed on large-cap tech stocks. Alternative asset managers surged across the board, with KKR rising nearly 7%, and the storage sector also rose against the trend, supporting the market. The market proactively reduced positions on the eve of the CPI, awaiting the inflation data to set the tone for the September interest rate path.
Market Cautiously Watched and Waited on CPI Eve; U.S. Treasury Yields Fell, Gold Pulled Back
The underlying tone of the Tuesday market was "waiting for the data." U.S. July CPI will be released on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs believes inflation may be lower than general expectations, while HSBC is betting on "moderate" data.
U.S. Treasury yields reflected dovish expectations in advance. The 10-year Treasury yield fell about 2 basis points to 4.69%, and the 2-year yield fell about 2 basis points to 4.22%. The U.S. Dollar Index was largely flat.
Gold retreated from a two-month high. Spot gold closed slightly down 0.50%, and spot silver fell 1.6%. Oil prices fluctuated and moved higher, with WTI crude settling up about 1.3% at $83.20 per barrel, and Brent crude rising about 1.4% to $88.91 per barrel. Bitcoin rallied then turned lower, at one point falling 2% from its daily high.
Large-Cap Tech Stocks Under Pressure, Google Fell Nearly 4% Leading Decliners
The Wind US Tech Titans Index fell 1.13% on Tuesday, with large-cap tech stocks being the main drag on the broader market. Google Class A fell nearly 4%, recording its largest single-day drop in nearly six months, leading the Dow's decline. Concerns about AI capital expenditures and financing costs continue to simmer.
Jensen Huang clarified details of the $500 billion financing plan on Tuesday, easing some concerns about Nvidia's credit risk. Morgan Stanley later confirmed that the investment is led by third parties, with Nvidia only providing "residual value support." This response did not fully dispel market concerns, and Nvidia still closed lower on Tuesday.
Nvidia is also developing a new-generation open-source AI model called Nemotron, reportedly targeting the trillion-parameter level. The continuous expansion of AI model scale means computing power demand will not disappear, but the market is now recalculating the cost of financing and the payback period.
Alternative Asset Management Institutions Surged Across the Board, KKR Rose Nearly 7%
The alternative asset management sector surged across the board on Tuesday. KKR jumped 6.92%, Apollo rose 6.23%, and Blackstone gained 3.89%. The BDC (Business Development Company) sector also rose across the board.
Amid pressure on tech stocks, funds are rotating into sectors benefiting from potential interest rate declines and capital intermediation business. Alternative asset managers, as important capital intermediaries, directly benefit from the twin logics of strong AI infrastructure financing demand and loosening interest rate expectations.
Storage Sector Rose Against the Trend; Target Prices for Samsung and SK Hynix Were Lowered
Apart from alternative asset managers, the storage sector was another direction supporting the market that day. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 0.87%, with stocks like Sandisk and Western Digital posting gains of varying degrees.
Mixed signals emerged in the news flow. SK Hynix was revealed to be restarting construction of the No. 2 factory at its Dalian, China NAND flash memory production base, expanding capacity by about 50%, with plans to introduce equipment by the end of this year and officially begin production in the first half of next year. Large-scale capacity expansion typically indicates confidence in future demand prospects.
However, Korean brokerages simultaneously lowered target prices. Kiwoom Securities lowered Samsung Electronics' target price from 390,000 won to 350,000 won, and SK Hynix's target price from 2.20 million won to 2.10 million won, with reductions of up to over 30%. The reason cited was rising market concerns that the boom cycle for general-purpose memory chips may have peaked.
The simultaneous occurrence of capacity expansion and target price cuts indicates divergent market views on the storage sector. AI-related HBM demand remains robust, but the boom for general-purpose memory chips may have peaked. Funds on Tuesday chose to trade on the line of "continued AI storage demand."
Chinese Stocks Under Pressure, Golden Dragon Index Fell Nearly 3%
The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 2.94% on Tuesday. Tencent Music fell nearly 12%, and Bilibili fell over 5%. Chinese stocks ended their run of outperforming the broader market for several consecutive days, facing profit-taking ahead of the CPI data release. Global capital remains cautious towards Chinese stocks amid macro uncertainties, with geopolitical risks and uncertainty over the pace of consumption recovery being the main suppressing factors. The pullback in Chinese stocks suggests some profit-taking pressure was released before the data, but the core macro variable remains Wednesday's CPI.
Wednesday Focus: CPI Data to Set the Tone for September Rate Path
The market's focus on Wednesday is solely on the U.S. July CPI data. If CPI is lower than expected, U.S. Treasury yields may fall further, easing valuation pressure on tech stocks and strengthening the upward logic for alternative asset managers and the storage sector. If CPI is higher than expected, the optimism brought by last week's non-farm payrolls data may be thoroughly revised, U.S. Treasury yields may resume their upward trend, and tech stocks could face renewed pressure.
The S&P 500 is near record highs. Tuesday's volatile and lower close indicates funds have reduced positions before the data. The direction of Wednesday's CPI will determine whether the market continues to break higher or faces a correction.
