Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Golem (@web3_golem)
As an investor focused on US stocks in AI and semiconductors, if you haven't heard of Serenity, chances are you're still on the sidelines when it comes to investment research.
Why is that? Because he is currently the hottest "stock call king" on the entire internet. From retail investors to Wall Street, almost everyone is reading his reports and copying his trades. Some people even package his publicly available, free insights into courses to sell within communities.
On May 24th, Serenity announced his investment performance for this year on platform X: a year-to-date return of 3840.39%. Just the day before, he had also shared his investment return over the past two years, which was a staggering 2256.99%.
Serenity, "Far Ahead of the Pack"
Serenity only joined X in July 2025, and by May this year, his follower count had grown to 358k, with over 32k subscriptions—just under 15k less than Elon Musk's subscription count. Yet, to this day, no one knows Serenity's true identity. People's understanding of his background comes solely from his self-written bio:
- Former famous Reddit WSB trader who switched to X(Odaily Note: WallStreetBets is the largest US retail trading community. Serenity was banned for recommending a stock with the ticker AXTI in 2022. This stock has risen over 700% year-to-date);
- AI & semiconductor supply chain analyst, former RISC-V Foundation member, former AI research scientist;
- Now primarily trades "those overlooked bottlenecks."
As can be seen from the bio, Serenity's persona is that of an AI expert. He has also claimed to have turned down an offer from Nvidia's AI team back in 2018. In a post, Serenity stated that his investments are also based on a thorough understanding and research of the AI and semiconductor industries. His typical investment research process is: first conduct initial paper research, then translate these ideas into actual plans and trades, followed by subsequent due diligence on the Alpha, and finally, celebrate when the stocks rise.
As shown in the image below, this is a list of Serenity's main stock holdings compiled by community user @kaikaibtc, primarily focused on sectors within the AI industry chain such as optical modules, silicon photonics, storage, CPO (Co-Packaged Optics), and substrates. None of these 21 stocks has a profit lower than 100%. Among them, AXTI, a stock Serenity has mentioned most frequently and "called" for over two years, has even yielded profits exceeding 10,000%. He has publicly stated that AXTI is his most legendary trade.
However, what's perhaps even more remarkable than these astonishing profits is that Serenity identified these targets before not only retail investors took notice, but even before institutions entered the market.
When Serenity posted about recommending a particular stock in the past, he was mostly met with skepticism. Only months or even a year later, when investors saw the exaggerated performance of the stock, would they belatedly realize he was right. Stocks like RPI, AXTI, SIVE, and others are vivid examples. When such cases repeatedly occurred, the Serenity account naturally became a must-read for retail investors, Wall Street, and even Silicon Valley investors.
Why is Serenity always ahead of the market and able to unearth those undervalued stocks? The secret lies in his self-constructed investment theory: the Supply Chain Bottleneck (Chokepoint) theory.
The Bottleneck (Chokepoint) Investment Method
Chokepoint is the highest-frequency word appearing in Serenity's posts and is also his core investment logic.
AI is undoubtedly the world's dominant narrative today, but the AI industry suffers from a clear supply-demand imbalance. On one hand, internet giants are spending lavishly on an "arms race" for AI infrastructure; on the other, the supply side is clearly insufficient, with even Nvidia's orders entering a "rationing system." Therefore, capital has also realized that the current stage of AI development has little to do with downstream applications but everything to do with the upstream supply chain. Whoever occupies a critical position in the AI supply chain, whoever is irreplaceable, deserves to be repriced.
Thus, over the past few months, the market's hype around the AI industry has deconstructed the supply chain step by step, starting from the initial GPU computing power. The second layer includes storage, data centers, and optical modules, further down to power, materials, networking equipment, etc. This layered deconstruction of the AI supply chain to find the key "chokepoint" companies in each segment is essentially Serenity's bottleneck investment method, except he acted far ahead of most retail investors and institutions.
On March 31st, Serenity used an analogy while calling AXTI to vividly explain what a bottleneck point is. He used the Strait of Hormuz as a comparison. Over 20% of the world's crude oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a critical chokepoint in global energy trade. AXTI's relationship to AI optical module companies is similar to the Strait of Hormuz's relationship to global energy trade.
The essence of Serenity's ability to achieve excess returns still comes from market information asymmetry, using sharp thinking and foresight to seek out the "hidden champions" on the AI industry chain that are not fully priced. These companies are not as glamorous as giants like Nvidia, Micron, or SK Hynix, but they are small-scale monopolies whose shortage or shutdown could cause earthquakes in the trillion-dollar downstream AI industry.
For example, when Serenity called IQE in February-March this year, he repeatedly stated that both IQE and Landmark are major photonic chip epitaxial wafer foundries, but IQE's total capacity is much larger than Landmark's. At that time, Landmark's market cap was about $3.8 billion, while IQE's was only $135 million.
It's worth mentioning that Serenity is not superhuman either, knowing every aspect of the AI industry chain in detail. He often mentions using AI to assist in AI supply chain research, including deconstructing industry chains, digging up suppliers, and debating viewpoints with AI.
True Legend or "Photoshop Master"?
In the investment field, deifying any individual is extremely dangerous. Serenity's success rate is not 100%. Stocks he recommended earlier this year, such as CPSH and INFQ, also experienced significant pullbacks in February and March. Rather than copying his portfolio outright, retail investors and traders should learn his research framework and mindset, thereby forming their own system and ultimately finding their own Alpha.
Serenity is also a highly idealistic and mysterious figure. None of his publicly available personal information has third-party verification, and no one even knows if he is male or female. The only private information he has revealed is that he lives an international digital nomad life, currently in Japan learning Japanese. He also lived in Mainland China for a short period in the past, so he knows some Chinese, and frequently travels to countries like South Korea, the UK, Singapore, and Canada, claiming to have visited at least 28 countries.
Because Serenity only shares return rates and not actual portfolio positions, some have questioned whether his profits might be fabricated. Serenity's response to this is: "The reason for not disclosing specific amounts is that the amount is not important." He just wants to prove that users can also find purely valuable information from free posts, and that market return rates expressed as percentages are most suitable for validating a thesis. He also stated that he deeply despises traditional KOLs who flaunt money, luxury watches, cars, and private jets.
Opposing paywalls or paid communities is also a distinct characteristic of Serenity. Serenity publishes most of his core market research entirely on X, accessible for free by anyone, with no barriers, no paid communities. His account subscription costs only $1/month, and the content is merely an Excel spreadsheet. Even without subscribing, it does not affect understanding his core viewpoints in the slightest.
In this world where "all hustle and bustle is for profit," Serenity's behavior—which appears not to seek fame or fortune, generously sharing his market views—seems unnaturally altruistic. Therefore, some speculate that Serenity is merely using his influence to manipulate the prices of these low-market-cap stocks, building positions at low levels, pumping them up, and then selling high, leaving only a tiny "ant-sized" position in his account to fool followers, especially since he only ever reveals return rates, not real profits.
This has a flavor of "measuring the gentleman's heart with a小人's (villain's) mind." Of course, Serenity has his own gentlemanly explanation.
He believes the stock market is a positive-sum game. His goal is to share critical information before institutions "buy in," allowing retail investors to also get on the right path and reap profits. Especially when he sees they don't have to pay over $2000 to join any paid community to see the "wealth code," he feels proud, claiming he is changing the old model. For instance, he said if he didn't tell the IQE story, an institution like AVGO would simply quietly acquire IQE outright, and retail investors wouldn't get any profit at all.
Which version is the truth? Is Serenity someone who truly sees through the AI supply chain, or a top-tier player harvesting traders under the guise of the "bottleneck narrative"? We currently do not know. Whether Serenity will ultimately become a legend or a bubble, we can only leave that for time to answer.
