上周市场关键信息及币价波动分析

FastDailyPubblicato 2023-01-10Pubblicato ultima volta 2023-01-10

Introduzione

熊市的底部能有多低?

在FTX内爆之后,我们中的许多人问自己:“是否有更多的杠杆要从系统中突破出来?熊市的底部能有多低?“Coinbase首席执行官Brian Armstrong在FTX下跌后的播客中讨论了FTX的传染风险,如果我们要回答上述问题,他的观点仍有意义。

首先,加密行业中的一些公司(现在已经失去了)资金“存放在FTX 中”(而不是自我托管)。其次,有些公司“Alameda可能有贷款”。Armstrong还透露,Coinbase已经接到寻求紧急融资的公司打来的电话。最后,他认为个人或公司可能使用了他们作为杠杆的自有资金来购买加密货币资产。

所有上述因素都表明这个行业处于压力之中,这种压力的后果可能会在未来几个月内显现出来。

那么接下来,在今天的内容里,让我们一起回顾一下上周的关键市场要素。

01

比特币可能会在汤加和斐济等岛国被视为法定货币。Fusitu'a勋爵是汤加议会的前议员,他推动比特币成为促进汤加汇款的一种方式,这些汇款在汤加的GDP中占了很大一部分。Fusitu'a还推动比特币成为法定货币,用于采矿和国家财政。他预测,比特币最早可以在2023年2月作为法定货币上线。

02

俄罗斯国有银行Sberbank在其专有区块链上推出了黄金支持的数字金融资产 (DFA)。正如“支持”一词所暗示的那样,DFA 可以兑换成实物黄金。

该银行的一份公告称,DFA的价值将是动态的,可以随其挂钩的黄金市场价格自由上下波动。

新闻稿中引用了俄罗斯储蓄银行(Sberbank)管理委员会第一副主席Alexander Vedyakhin的话,宣称新的金融产品可以“作为经济非美元化的一部分,成为投资的良好替代品”。

03

智能合约安全公司Dedaub发现了Uniswap的Universal Router智能合约中的一个漏洞,该漏洞可能允许重入攻击,并在交易中途抽走用户资金。Uniswap在2022年底启动了一个漏洞赏金计划,以确保其协议在推出NFT相关的聚合器功能后的安全性和有效性,并授予Dedaub 4万美元的奖金来标记该漏洞,这包括在2022年11月Uniswap的奖金期间报告该问题的33%奖金。该漏洞被Uniswap列为中等严重程度(影响大,可能性小)。

04

基于以太坊的DeFi平台SushiSwap宣布,由于财政困难和需要有效地分配资源以保证主协议的生存,它将关闭其代币发射台和借贷协议。根据该公司首席技术官的说法,借贷协议Kashi存在缺陷,并在亏损中运营,而发射台MISO则需要大量的资源。SushiSwap现在将优先考虑其受欢迎的分散式交换网络。该公司的首席执行官最近透露,过去一年亏损3000万美元,因此决定停止发射台和借贷协议是该公司努力解决其财务挑战的一部分。

上周币价回顾

撇开稳定币不谈,按市值计算,勇敢的新币的十大数字资产全面稳步向上攀升。Cardano(ADA)是最大的赢家,与前一周相比上涨了16.5%。Binance-coin (BNB)是第二大赢家,在同一时期内上涨了8%。自12月中旬以来,比特币(BTC)继续在17000美元的价位下徘徊。

与其他数字资产相比,比特币的市场主导地位在过去14年里起起伏伏。在2009年1月比特币诞生之时,该数字资产占据了加密资产市场的100%。事实上,在2017年3月之前,比特币一直保持着80%以上的市值优势,但随着2017年牛市,发生了一些“另类币的崛起”,到当年6月,比特币的市值下降到38%以下。虽然比特币在2021年1月瞬间恢复了71%的市值,但自2021年5月以来,它一直保持着稳定的40%左右,在上下反弹了大约五个百分点。2022年的事件都没有明显地对比特币相对于所有其他加密资产的市场份额造成冲击。(还请注意,自2022年中期以来,替代币的总数稳步下降)。

本周里,BTC保持区间震荡,波动性非常小,在16,670以下找到了轻度出价,而在16,750以上面临阻力。然而,在周三,BTC突破了16,750,然后在17,000之前停了下来,这是一个关键的阻力位,不久之后,情绪的变化导致价格走低,16,750-16,700区成为下行支撑,表明其在短期内的相关性。尽管如此,BTC上升到周末,收盘时上涨3.03%。

在周三FOMC会议纪要发布之前,BTC小幅走高。值得注意的是,此举因空头清算而被夸大,后来被积极的ISM数据证明是合理的。该该数据给投资者留下了美联储可能会减少进一步加息的印象,BTC随后攀升至17,000。然而,联邦公开市场委员会的会议纪要指出,在核心通胀得到控制且 BTC 小幅走低之前,不会排除持续的限制性政策立场。不久之后,美国非农就业数据和失业数据好于预期。然而,由于在美联储持续强硬货币政策的背景下人们认为经济具有灵活性,BTC 的走势受到影响,出现走低。目前这种下降趋势已经停止,可能是情绪恢复的标志。信心的持续改善预示着未来的价格行动和该领域的持续发展。

与比特币一样,以太坊的波动性减小。 上周开始,ETH在11160和1200之间的区间波动,并迅速扫荡低点,造成小规模的多头平仓,然后收回区间并突破顶部。到周二,1,220 被确定为下一个阻力位,导致另一个小范围的形成。随着被动流动性的增加(如周中更深的订单簿和买卖价差的收紧),由于缺乏积极的市场参与者,价格继续在日内波动。周三、周五和周日均出现小幅上行突破,因为空头止损出场,市场买盘量飙升。ETH 本周收于 1,290,环比上涨 7.48%。

去中心化的流动性质押平台Lido,最近受到了极大的关注,在以太坊上海升级前出现了一个新的说法。一旦从以太坊的Beacon链中提取的资金被解锁,像Lido的stETH这样的流动性质押代币将可以兑换 1 个 ETH,而相关平台将从所有抵押头寸的赎回中获取分成。在这种情况下,Lido的治理代币LDO在受益于做空该代币的人的头寸被挤压后,出现大幅上涨。

基于Solana的代币,BONK,在这一周内也出现了巨大的涨幅。BONK是另一个以狗为灵感的meme币,旨在用于整个Solana生态系统,已经有超过50个dApp整合。与BONK的代币价格上涨相一致,Solana的SOL在面临FTX崩溃后的下行抛售压力后,终于看到了积极的价格升值。也有可能是SOL近70%价格上涨导致人们的目光转回区块链,将目光锁定到了BONK。

Crypto di tendenza

Letture associate

Why Is the World Nervous About Japan Raising Interest Rates?

In June 2026, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1%, marking its first hike to this level since 1995. While this rate remains low compared to global peers like the US and Europe, the move signals a profound shift for a nation that has been a global source of ultra-cheap funding for decades. Japan's long-standing near-zero or negative interest rates had facilitated massive "yen carry trades," where international investors borrowed low-cost yen to invest in higher-yielding assets worldwide, such as US tech stocks and emerging market bonds. This made Japan a critical, often overlooked, source of global liquidity. Japan's ultra-loose policy stemmed from structural challenges post-1990s asset bubble: aging demographics, chronic low inflation/deflation, and high public debt. Recent shifts, including sustained wage growth (exceeding 5% in recent years) and inflation consistently above the 2% target, have created a "wage-price spiral" possibility, prompting the policy normalization. The global market's concern lies not in the absolute rate but in the potential unwinding of the yen carry trade. As Japanese borrowing costs rise, the economics of these leveraged global investments change, potentially triggering deleveraging and capital outflows from risk assets. Market anxiety focuses on the end of a thirty-year consensus that Japan would perpetually provide cheap funding. Ultimately, the global impact will depend on the interplay with US monetary policy. While Japan is tightening, the significant interest rate differential with the US remains. The key future dynamic is whether simultaneous Japanese hikes and eventual US rate cuts will narrow this gap, forcing a major recalibration of global capital flows and asset pricing built on an era of abundant, cheap yen liquidity.

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Why Is the World Nervous About Japan Raising Interest Rates?

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Research Report Analysis: MRVL's Optical AI Booming, Why High Valuation Keeps Morgan Stanley's Star Analyst Sidelined?

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Research Report Analysis: MRVL's Optical AI Booming, Why High Valuation Keeps Morgan Stanley's Star Analyst Sidelined?

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