[Key interpretation] 298000 BTC transactions on the chain, can it support the rebound.

JinsPubblicato 2022-12-09Pubblicato ultima volta 2022-12-12

Introduzione

298000 BTC transactions on the chain, can it support the rebound.

1. BTC concussion drops

BTC's 4-hour K chart shows that the price rises during the small rebound in trading volume. At present, BTC is still operating below the corresponding US $17246 of 78.6% in Fibonacci. The competition between the long and short sides is relatively relaxed, and the price trend is relatively stable. The trading volume peak that BTC can reach is limited, and the bulls are still ready to go, but we should pay attention to the change of selling pressure. Considering that the transfer on the chain is also operating at a low level, it indicates that BTC is in the slow bottoming stage, so it is enough to pay attention to the market changes.

2. Escape of long-term investors

BTC's trading volume on the chain is very stable, and the recent trading volume has always remained at a low level, which is obviously different from the overall trading volume on the chain in 2022. In terms of value, the trading volume on the chain on December 8 was 298000 BTCs, which shrank by more than 50% compared with the previous period, indicating that investors' willingness to transfer money declined significantly, and the market was in a period of low growth.

3. DASH low bit inversion

The daily K line chart of DASH shows that with the confirmation of the reversal pattern, the price has begun to show signs of stabilization after the arc bottom pattern. At present, the price of DASH is around 46.7 US dollars, which is the highest price in the past six months. In terms of volume and price performance, DASH price is stronger than most mainstream currencies, especially short-term performance is better than BTC and ETH. Therefore, in the near future, we can focus on holding coins to gain opportunities.

4. High level operation of DASH financing interest rate

The financing interest rate of DASH is maintained at a high level, ranging from 0.01% to 0.03%. Recently, the activity of long trades is relatively good, and we pay attention to market changes. During the period when the financing interest rate remains positive, the trend of DASH will be stable. At present, there is a good opportunity to attract money below $50, which is suitable for further attracting money to wait for the price to rise.

Letture associate

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In a podcast with WuBlockchain, NDV founder Jason Huang discusses recent market dynamics, expressing a bearish outlook on crypto in the near term. He attributes Bitcoin's recent decline to a combination of cyclical selling pressure, the start of a US stock market correction, and liquidity tightening. A key catalyst is the emerging financial strain on MicroStrategy (MSTR). Huang explains that MSTR's model of borrowing to buy Bitcoin created a positive "flywheel" in a bull market. However, with falling BTC prices turning its stock premium into a discount, the model is now under severe stress. While MSTR only sold 32 BTC recently, the market is "front-running" the fear of its massive 80,000+ BTC holdings potentially being liquidated to meet debt obligations. He believes a true market bottom requires a major, capitulation-level event similar to the FTX collapse. Regarding investments, Huang states his fund is up over 20% this year, outperforming Bitcoin by 50-60%. The strategy involves crypto assets and commodities like oil, gold, and silver, but avoids AI stocks due to a perceived lack of trading edge. He is cautious of crowded trades in semiconductors and sees bubbles in the broader market, citing the hype around a potential SpaceX IPO. Despite short-term pessimism, Huang remains long-term bullish on one crypto innovation: stablecoins. He views them as the clearest example of a "faster, better" financial tool with significant room for global adoption. For the future, he is very bearish on Ethereum. For Bitcoin, he anticipates potential for a significant drop below $48,000 before a eventual rebound, but stresses the need to wait for a true panic-driven bottom marked by widespread despair and disinterest in the market.

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Interview with NDV Founder Jason Huang: Piercing the AI Bubble and the MicroStrategy Myth, Seeking the Ultimate Edge in the Crypto Market

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Conversation with Jason Huang, Founder of NDV: Puncturing the AI Bubble and the MicroStrategy Myth, Searching for the Ultimate Trump Card in the Crypto Market

In a podcast interview, NDV founder Jason Huang discusses the recent crypto market downturn, attributing the initial phase to typical Bitcoin cycle selling pressure, now compounded by a US stock market correction, tightening liquidity, and MicroStrategy's financial strain. He argues the market hasn't bottomed yet, noting true bear market lows often require a major, despair-inducing event like FTX's collapse. Huang details MicroStrategy's precarious position: its debt-and-equity fueled Bitcoin buying model has reversed into a negative cycle as prices fell. He interprets its sale of just 32 BTC as a signal prioritizing creditors over shareholders, sparking market "front-running" of its larger potential sell-off. A true bottom may arrive only after MicroStrategy resolves its looming debt payments, possibly via a large, private Bitcoin sale. His fund is up ~20% this year, outperforming Bitcoin by 50-60%, by shorting crypto and trading commodities like oil and gold. He avoided AI stocks despite being a heavy user, citing a lack of trading edge in the crowded semiconductor hardware trade, which he views as ripe for a significant correction. Long-term, Huang remains bullish on stablecoins as crypto's clearest, most practical innovation with high growth potential. He is very bearish on Ethereum and skeptical that Bitcoin has found its floor, suggesting $48,000 may not hold. He expects a sharp decline followed by a strong recovery within a year, but only after a major panic event leads to widespread capitulation and despair—the true hallmark of a market bottom.

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Conversation with Jason Huang, Founder of NDV: Puncturing the AI Bubble and the MicroStrategy Myth, Searching for the Ultimate Trump Card in the Crypto Market

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U.S. Stocks Trend (June 24): Korean Stock Plunge Ripples Global Chip Sector, Micron Tumbles Over 10%, Long-Term Supply Certainty Faces a 'Hard Test'

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U.S. Stocks Trend (June 24): Korean Stock Plunge Ripples Global Chip Sector, Micron Tumbles Over 10%, Long-Term Supply Certainty Faces a 'Hard Test'

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Preferred Shares Are Not the Catalyst for Corporate Bankruptcy; MicroStrategy's Dollar Reserves Can Cover Dividend and Interest Payments Until February 2027. This article analyzes the nature of preferred shares used by MicroStrategy (MSTR). Legally equity but economically similar to debt, these shares, including its Bitcoin-linked STR convertible preferred notes (STRC), offer fixed or floating dividends. Crucially, MicroStrategy's preferred shares lack rigid redemption clauses, meaning they are not classified as traditional debt. This eliminates principal repayment pressure and means missed dividends do not constitute default or trigger bankruptcy, creating a "self-contradictory virtuous cycle." The article clarifies that if funds are short, MicroStrategy can defer or suspend preferred share dividends (except for non-cumulative types like STRD) without immediate risk. The real potential crisis point lies with its convertible bonds. If a prolonged bear market prevents conversion, MicroStrategy might need to sell Bitcoin to repay these bonds starting from the earliest maturity in September 2027, potentially creating a downward spiral. Preferred dividend suspensions would only exacerbate market panic in such a scenario. Recent financial activity shows MicroStrategy strengthened its position through four weeks of common stock (MSTR) issuances, raising over $851 million without issuing new preferred shares. It increased its dollar reserves to approximately $1.4 billion, which is sufficient to cover all preferred share dividends and interest until around March 2027. While Bitcoin purchases slowed recently, this prioritization of cash reserves enhances the company's near-term financial safety. The analysis concludes that if the Bitcoin bear market ends by early 2025 as anticipated, MicroStrategy can resume issuing MSTR stock in a rising market to replenish reserves and manage future dividend obligations, thereby reducing the long-term pressure from its preferred share structure.

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Preferred Stock Is Not the Trigger for Corporate Bankruptcy, MicroStrategy's Dollar Reserves Can Cover Dividend and Interest Payments Until February 2027

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