稳定币持有量分析:聪明钱对后市怎么看?

深潮TechFlowPubblicato 2022-12-09Pubblicato ultima volta 2022-12-12

Introduzione

投资最基本的法则:跟着钱走。稳定币是加密货币的命脉,让我们来看看,这些命脉都流向了哪里?

投资最基本的法则:跟着钱走。稳定币是加密货币的命脉,让我们来看看,这些命脉都流向了哪里?

记住投资最基本的黄金法则之一:"跟着钱走"。

稳定币是加密货币的命脉,让我们来看看,这些命脉都流向了哪里?

TL;DR:

最近,11 月出现了有史以来最高的链上交易量,稳定币从交易所流出,聪明钱继续保持高度持有稳定币,但他们持有的热门稳定币 USDT、USDC 和 BUSD 均有所下降。

首先,我们先来看看:交易所的稳定币流。

我们可以看到,自 11 月 4 日以来,交易所的稳定币余额急剧下降。大约价值 40 亿美元。这与 FTX 的崩溃和恐慌相吻合。人们急于把他们的加密货币从交易所转移出去。

接下来,让我们看看聪明钱持有多少稳定币。

思路是:

稳定币多=看跌

稳定币少=看涨

我们可以看到,与去年同期相比,聪明钱的稳定币的持仓大大增加,表明目前的风险偏好较低。

查看稳定币每日链上交易量:

我们可以看到,11 月是有史以来交易量最高的一个月,其中大部分交易量来自 USDC,链上交易量为 585,518,197,775 美元

这可能也要归咎于 FTX 带来的恐慌。

接下来,我们看一下目前最著名的 4 个稳定币的历史代币持有量:$USDT、$USDC、$BUSD 和 $DAI

让我们看看聪明钱更喜欢什么,他们持有什么:

自 9 月以来,聪明钱持有的$USDT 的数量一直在缓慢流失。

聪明钱持有的 USDC 一直在逐步增加,直到 9 月份才下跌,此后一直在下降。

接下来,让我们来看看 Binance 的后起之秀$BUSD,我们可以看到它在 11 月初出现了一个巨大的飙升,目前这个拉升已经大幅回撤。

最后,我们可以看到,自夏天以来,聪明钱持有$DAI 的数量正在逐渐增加,尽管它仍然低于熊市之初的水平。

总之,如果你要努力寻找并跟随趋势,分析稳定币的流动对识别和保持市场趋势的正确性非常有帮助。

当聪明钱大量持仓稳定币时,你可能要考虑市场风险,当他们从稳定币里转移出来时,你可能要考虑做同样的事情。

稳定币持有量减少通常被认为是看涨的,然而鉴于目前加密货币领域的大环境(FTX ),可以推断恐惧和不确定性促成了当前稳定币持有量的下降。

Letture associate

TechFlow Intelligence Bureau: Anthropic IPO Odds Exceed 80%, Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz Again, Triggering Oil Price Volatility

**Market Digest** **AI & Tech:** Anthropic is widely expected to announce an IPO before November 2026, raising questions about balancing its trillion-dollar valuation ambitions with its core "AI safety" mission. Brands are increasingly adopting AI-generated virtual influencers for marketing. Cloudflare introduced temporary accounts for AI agents to ease automation workflows. **Infrastructure & Hardware:** Google's IPv6 traffic surpassed 50%, marking a major internet milestone. Goldman Sachs warned that massive projected AI capital expenditure ($5.3T) is approaching credit saturation limits, potentially curbing the "AI arms race." **Space & Robotics:** SpaceX's IPO saw a historic $370M retail buying frenzy in three days. Hyundai Motor Group plans to acquire full ownership of Boston Dynamics. Elon Musk speculated about future "septillion-dollar" investments in antimatter for interstellar travel. **Energy & Geopolitics:** Iran's military announced another closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, accusing Israel of violating a ceasefire, causing oil market volatility. However, ship-tracking data indicated some traffic continued. Concurrently, Iran resumed crude loadings at Kharg Island, potentially releasing up to 20 million barrels to the market. **Finance & Macro:** A European CLO (collateralized loan obligation) experienced its first post-2008-crisis-era equity tranche default, raising alarms in credit markets. Nomura warned that new Federal Reserve Chair Wash's perceived hawkish debut speech could signal a significant policy shift. **The Undercurrent:** Seemingly disparate events—the Strait of Hormuz tension, the European CLO default, and warnings on AI spending—point to a tightening of global liquidity and rising marginal costs across energy, credit, and tech investment. Meanwhile, capital continues chasing grand narratives like space exploration and advanced AI, highlighting a divergence where old-world leverage frays as new-world stories grow more ambitious.

marsbit2 h fa

TechFlow Intelligence Bureau: Anthropic IPO Odds Exceed 80%, Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz Again, Triggering Oil Price Volatility

marsbit2 h fa

The Hunter Becomes the Hunted: The Most Profitable MEV Bot Gets Hacked

A well-known and highly profitable Ethereum MEV Bot, Jaredfromsubway.eth, suffered a sophisticated on-chain attack this Saturday, losing over $7.5 million. Analysis by Blockaid and others reveals this was not a conventional phishing or smart contract exploit, but a targeted "counter-MEV honeypot attack." The attacker meticulously laid a trap over several weeks, deploying 66 fake token contracts and liquidity pools disguised as major assets like WETH and USDC. These pools created the illusion of arbitrage opportunities. The MEV Bot's automated system detected these signals, executed trades, and in the process, granted approval permissions to attacker-controlled contracts. These approvals were not revoked, creating a persistent vulnerability. The attacker then exploited this in a single transaction, draining the bot's ETH, USDC, and USDT holdings. Jaredfromsubway.eth is notorious as one of Ethereum's most active and profitable MEV Bots, primarily known for executing "sandwich attacks" to profit from transaction slippage. Estimates suggest it has earned tens of millions in MEV revenue. The incident highlights escalating crypto security threats, demonstrating that even top-tier automated "predators" are vulnerable to novel, logic-based attacks designed to exploit their own operational rules. Following the hack, an unverified X account impersonating Jaredfromsubway.eth emerged, falsely offering a bounty for the return of funds, prompting developer warnings for users to stay vigilant.

marsbit3 h fa

The Hunter Becomes the Hunted: The Most Profitable MEV Bot Gets Hacked

marsbit3 h fa

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片