Can short-squeeze narrative for Ethereum, Bitcoin actually deliver results

AmbcryptoPubblicato 2022-09-15Pubblicato ultima volta 2022-09-15

Introduzione

Negative market sentiment for Ethereum [ETH] and Bitcoin [BTC] caused derivative funding rates to remain negative. While both prices suffered a major setback, short traders followed the selling ritual. Now, could this provide an opportunity for the patient (long) traders following a “potential” squeeze?

Negative market sentiment for Ethereum [ETH] and Bitcoin [BTC] caused derivative funding rates to remain negative. While both prices suffered a major setback, short traders followed the selling ritual.

""

Now, could this provide an opportunity for the patient (long) traders following a “potential” squeeze?

""

Deep wounds

""

The funding rates for BTC and ETH have remained negative for derivative traders for quite a while. Furthermore, derivative prices have kept funding rates generally below zero since May. Ergo, depicting the overall sentiment of the traders and how they viewed future market conditions.

'"

But could this narrate a potential short-term bull signal for traders? Well, yes.

""

The annualized funding rate spread between BTC and ETH perpetual pushed to a new all-time high (ATH) of 77% as per data from Glassnode. The graph below showcased the same.

Source: Glassnode

""

Although, short trades seem to be focused on ETH rather than BTC given its Merge season. In this regard, Glassnode added,

""

“This indicates traders are heavily short ETH relative to BTC, likely speculating/hedging for the upcoming Merge.”

""

This means hedging their risk exposure to ETH by going short perpetual futures. In fact, ETH funding rates dipped to their most negative since July 2021.

""

The difference in sentiment for crypto’s two flagship assets seemed to pivot in anticipation of the upcoming Merge. The event formerly known as Ethereum 2.0, when the proof-of-work (PoW) Ethereum mainnet will merge with the proof-of-stake (PoS) Beacon chain.

""

Additionally, a report by Kaiko found that Ether perpetual futures traded at more than 7x the volumes of spot markets. This stands at a four-times increase from November 2021.

""

Opportunity arises

""

However, given the past scenarios, a ‘short-squeeze‘ could see a potential uptick for the flagship token. Every time the funding dropped to the negative side during the past month, prices increased.

""

Thus, funding rates moved towards the positive territory. Ergo, long traders took advantage of the leftover space from the short ones.

""

Nonetheless, social sentiment continues to form a blanket around Ethereum. As per LunarCrush, Ethereum’s social activity accelerated over the last three months. It even continued to reach new heights.

Source: LunarCrush

""

Negative to positive

""

On the other hand, the largest cryptocurrency BTC’s funding rates flipped positive although the (positive) rate might not be significant enough.

""

Nevertheless, long traders paid a premium to the short traders, at press time, in order to hold onto their positions.

""

The only question remains- Could Bitcoin possibly have further room to grow? Well, funding rates have been quite positive recently. Especially, when the price kept suffering- BTC lost more than 10% in just 24 hours after the CPI announcement.

Source: CoinMarketCap

Letture associate

Latin America's Payments Landscape Is Not What You Think It Is

This report challenges common misconceptions about Latin America's payment landscape, based on over 500 hours of firsthand research. Key findings include: 1) Crypto card transaction volume primarily comes from high-net-worth individuals receiving USDT salaries, not retail spending. 2) QR code payments (e.g., Brazil's Pix, Argentina's Mercado Pago) are the dominant payment method across most emerging markets, not cards. 3) A major untapped opportunity lies in enabling cross-border interoperability between domestic instant payment systems. 4) Payment competition is shifting from customer acquisition to owning the settlement layer (e.g., acquiring banks). 5) Latin America is not a single market; Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and smaller "forgotten five" countries (e.g., Guatemala, Honduras) have vastly different dynamics. 6) Stablecoin-to-fiat conversion margins are collapsing toward zero, pushing companies to build value-added services on top. 7) Future payment winners will be multi-country brands, not single-corridor specialists. 8) Marketing must target specific user segments (e.g., digital nomads, unbanked immigrants) with tailored messaging, not a generic "Brazilian" audience. 9) Contrary to perception, Latin American regulators are often ahead of the US in creating frameworks for digital assets and instant payments, with clear licensing deadlines. The core takeaway is that the region's payment rules are being rewritten, moving beyond cards and stablecoin arbitrage towards integrated, cross-border QR-based solutions.

链捕手9 min fa

Latin America's Payments Landscape Is Not What You Think It Is

链捕手9 min fa

Vitalik's Algorithmic Stablecoin Vision: Interpreting the Mechanism and Challenges from an Options Perspective

Vitalik Buterin's recent algorithmic stablecoin proposal envisions using an option-like mechanism to create a stablecoin without the liquidation risks inherent in traditional collateralized debt position (CDP) models. The design splits one unit of ETH into two components: a 'stable' leg (P) that maintains value up to a certain strike price, and an 'upside' leg (N) that captures any appreciation above that price. Together, they always sum to one ETH, eliminating the need for debt or liquidation mechanisms. From an options perspective, the stable leg essentially functions as a synthetic, covered call position. However, significant challenges exist. For the stable asset to maintain its peg, it must continuously roll deep in-the-money call options, leading to potential rollover slippage, predictable trading paths vulnerable to front-running, and liquidity issues. Crucially, the system's scalability depends on a constant demand for the upside leg—a form of leveraged ETH long position without funding rates or liquidation risk. It's unclear if such persistent, specific demand will materialize from speculators or market makers who have simpler alternatives like perpetual swaps. The author, drawing from experience with Rysk, argues that DeFi options have struggled as standalone trading products due to complexity and fragmented liquidity. Their potential lies instead as foundational infrastructure underpinning more complex financial primitives like stablecoins, structured yields, or index products—transforming from a direct product into a core pricing and risk distribution engine for the next generation of on-chain finance.

marsbit1 h fa

Vitalik's Algorithmic Stablecoin Vision: Interpreting the Mechanism and Challenges from an Options Perspective

marsbit1 h fa

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片