DeFi项目分析不容忽略的深层指标

FootprintPubblicato 2022-03-04Pubblicato ultima volta 2022-03-18

Introduzione

数据可以被认为是任何项目最重要的资产,对数据的分析能够了解过去、现状,甚至预测未来。但传统行业中,数据分析中常常遇到的难点是数据源缺少或难以获得。

数据可以被认为是任何项目最重要的资产,对数据的分析能够了解过去、现状,甚至预测未来。但传统行业中,数据分析中常常遇到的难点是数据源缺少或难以获得。
区块链的世界打破了数据源的壁垒,它像是一个摊在桌面上任君翻阅的“大账簿”,数据完全公开透明。但要在海量晦涩难懂的数据中抽丝剥茧找出有价值的信息显然更有难度。
市面上对 DeFi 项目进行数据分析的工具不胜枚举,各类指标繁多。本文使用 Footprint Analytics 即将推出的 DeFi 360 中涉及的指标归纳来看项目整体情况,以及从哪些角度深挖数据背后原因。
What:目前指标类别
项目过去与现在的表现,可以通过常规指标概况迅速了解。通过对时点值、增量、变动率等指标了解项目情况与趋势变化。

用户


Project Overview
I. 运营数据

  • TVL

TVL 即总锁定价值(Total Value Locked),通常是项目第一关注的指标。反映了所有用户抵押的资产的总价值,人们常用 TVL 的增长判断项目是否处于上升趋势。

用户


TVL Trend
TVL 以美元为单位,但在加密货币的世界币价瞬息万变,很难看出 TVL 的涨跌到底是因为币价的变动引起,还是有更多投资的加入。因此,除了常规意义上的 TVL,对币本位的 TVL 也有必要关注。
例如,从 Footprint Analytics 的统计看到,Liquity (仅能质押 ETH 借出稳定币的借贷项目)在下图黑框部分以 ETH 为单位的 TVL 略下跌,而以美元为单位的 TVL 在不断上升,主要源于 ETH 价格上涨。这造成了项目上行的错觉。

用户


TVL in ETH vs USD
在 Aave、Yearn 等复杂项目出现同时提供锁仓与借贷功能后,这也使简单的 TVL 更难作为衡量项目的单一指标,因此要结合更多指标进行评估。

  • Net Liquidity

Net Liquidity 通过对流入与流出数据相减发现与上一日的变化。可以从 inflow 和 outflow 两面进一步分析变动主要来自于用户的进入还是流失。

  • Revenue 

如以 DEX 为主的协议,不能仅以 TVL 判定平台的情况,swap 也会为平台产生收入。项目的最终目还是为实现利润最大化,Revenue 可以让运营方了解盈利能力,反映项目经营成果。

用户

Revenue
II. Token 数据
大部分平台都会发行其治理 token,有些平台会使用双 token 模式。token 的数据一定程度上反映了市场对平台的认可程度。

  • 基本情况

币价是最直观的指标,发生重大事件时币价是最快受到影响的指标,币价的上涨与下跌也与市场的供求关系紧密相关。如 Cream 在 10 月 27 日再次遭到攻击,损失 1.3 亿,币价应声下跌。

用户


Token Price - CREAM
对于如 MakerDAOLiquity 等发行双代币的,监控平台铸造出的 DAI、LUSD 数量也可侧面反映出用户的参与程度。
Token 的市值为币价与发行量的乘积,反映了一个项目在 DeFi 行业的市场价值。

  • 持有人数及持有时间

持有 token 的人数反映了有多少用户认可平台的 token 模式,尤其通过质押 token 获得治理权利的数据体现了平台 DAO 的情况。
持有 token 的时间则能看出吸引的是认同平台价值的用户更多还是投机用户占比过高。

  • 应用情况

交易量数据可以反映 token 在市场上的流通热度,与市值的比例类似于换手率。更高的流通反映 token 具有一定热度,较低的流通属于关注度不足的 token。

用户


MKR Volume
除了进行交易,token 的用例也值得关注,用户挖矿获得的 token 是用在平台质押发挥了治理代币的作用,还是存入了其他外部协议捕获收益。
如 Liquity 发行的稳定币 LUSD 有 61% 还存储在自身平台的 Stability Pool 内,并没有发挥出其稳定币的作用,与 DAI 的用例相比还相差甚远。
Why:挖掘数据背后原因
了解项目过去与现在的表现后,需要寻找呈现数据的原因。通过对数据进行下钻,对平台的池子和用户深入挖掘。对数据的交叉分析也能发掘一些隐藏的相关因素。
I. Pool
平台总体运营数据归根究底是由众多池子组层,寻找数据变动的原因就要下钻到池子维度,发现对数据影响最大的对象。根据排名能发现最受欢迎的池子,调整平台未来的发展策略。

用户


Pools Overview
II. 用户指标
项目始终是围绕用户,精准捕获目标用户是项目发展的核心。对用户的数据分类和分层分析可以更快锁定优质用户。

  • 用户画像

对项目总体用户可以细分到新用户和活跃用户维度再进行分析。新用户体现平台市场拓展节奏,活跃用户反映项目持续增长的潜力。

用户


Address Overview
通过用户的人均交易金额、持有金额及时间的变化分析,能够了解平均用户质量。

用户


Active Address
虽然通过平均数能观察到用户行为的大趋势,但作为项目执行的依据仍有欠缺。平均数往往会把重要数据稀释掉,进行更深入的用户分层才能找到真正的问题,制定正确的执行计划。

用户

Trading Volume Distribution

  • 用户流失

“大鲸”用户是为平台产生价值的优质用户,防止用户流失是项目的一项必修课。通过对用户占比的分布排序,对用户画像的分析进一步聚焦在大额用户上。
洞悉用户的投资偏好能对平台的用户有更深层次的了解,通过剖析目标用户投资的所有 DeFi 平台情况发掘潜在用户群体。

用户


Address Investment Protocols Distribution
III. 交叉分析
通过对数据的下钻找到了影响数据变动的底层指标,但为何引起这些变化仍让人困惑。通过交叉分析寻找相关性有时可以为成因提供佐证。
例如将 TVL 及用户数与 APY 进行对比分析,观察两者的趋势变化推测是否因为 APY 的提升吸引到更多用户的参与。
再例如,由于大多数 token 的变动都与 BTC 具有相关性,价格变动的分析需注意到底是项目自身内在价值发生变动,还是受市场影响。

用户


Token Price (MKR vs BTC)
再或者,与行业竞品的对比能够了解项目在市场上的竞争力,TVL 的降低可能源自竞争对手的强势进攻。
DeFi 的乐高属性也不容忽略,关联紧密项目的指标常常也是影响变动的重要因素。例如对于 Curve TVL 的增长 Convex 也助了一臂之力。

用户

Curve VS Convex in TVL
结语
目前市场上分析工具众多,但通常只能分析到表层,更深层次的归因很难实现。不论是项目方想通过数据进行决策,还是投资者做分析,都只能获得呈现结果的指标,很难轻易获得能够归因的数据。
区块链世界已将数据摊在眼前,作为运营方想要快速通过可视化工具解读数据,亟需一款无需代码,只需点击一下即可获得强大分析功能的一站式方案。

Crypto di tendenza

Letture associate

After Three Consecutive Quarters of Decline, Can the Crypto Market Find a Window for Stabilization in Q3?

The cryptocurrency market has just concluded its worst-performing quarter since 2022, with total capitalization dropping 12.6% to $2.1 trillion. All core metrics indicate capital is leaving the sector, not just rotating within it. Bitcoin fell 14.2% and Ethereum dropped 25.4% in Q2, breaking their previous correlation with US tech stocks. A key driver is the reversal in US spot Bitcoin ETF flows, which saw a net outflow of approximately $4.67 billion in Q2, including a record monthly outflow near $4.5 billion in June. While recent data suggests long-term holders are accumulating again, sustained ETF outflows mean continued selling pressure. Market focus is now singularly on the Federal Reserve. The upcoming July FOMC meeting is seen as the most critical event for Q3. A dovish signal could support Bitcoin reclaiming a $68,000-$84,000 range, while a hawkish stance might establish a new trading band around $50,000-$56,000. Additionally, regulatory uncertainty persists, with the progress of the crucial *CLARITY Act* stalling in the Senate, reducing its perceived 2026 passage probability to 40-45%. Despite the broad downturn, a few sectors showed growth. Prediction markets saw nominal volume surge 48.7% year-over-year to $113.8 billion, and tokenized collectibles transaction volume rose 143% quarterly to $1.4 billion. The Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization sector also continued steady growth, now representing ~$28.1 billion in on-chain value. The market's foundation for an extreme crash appears limited, with Bitcoin price hovering near its 200-week moving average. However, the trading paradigm has shifted from narrative-driven speculation to decisions based on price action, policy developments, and interest rate expectations, making a broad sentiment-driven rally unlikely in the near term.

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After Three Consecutive Quarters of Decline, Can the Crypto Market Find a Window for Stabilization in Q3?

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BIT Trading Moment: BTC Still Suppressed by Weekly 200 EMA, Rejection May Restart Decline; Storage and Semiconductors that Surged Last Night Begin Falling in Evening Trading

**Crypto & Stock Market Wrap: Bitcoin Tests Resistance, Stocks Retreat After AI Surge** Bitcoin consolidates around $66,000, facing key resistance near $68,000—an area seen as a major psychological and technical hurdle where previous rallies have failed. Analysts note the cryptocurrency is caught between its 200-week moving average (~$63,333) and 200-week EMA (~$68,328). A clear break above $68k is needed to signal a stronger bullish trend, while a rejection could lead to a retest of $63k support. Market sentiment remains cautious, with low futures open interest pointing to a low-liquidity rebound rather than a full bull market. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw another $203 million inflow. US stock futures pointed lower after a strong Tuesday session led by a massive rebound in semiconductors and memory stocks. The rally was fueled by renewed optimism about AI-driven hardware demand, with Micron, SanDisk, and SK Hynix surging. However, those gains reversed in pre-market trading. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) soared over 20% after hours on strong guidance and a record backlog. Other standouts included Rocket Lab and nuclear energy plays Oklo and X-Energy. Rising oil prices (Brent above $91) and climbing Treasury yields (10-year near 4.64%), however, are reigniting inflation concerns and acting as a headwind for equities. In Asia, markets were mixed. South Korea's KOSPI pared early gains to close slightly higher as semiconductor stocks like SK Hynix gave back initial surges. Japan's Nikkei edged lower as the yen hit a fresh 38-year low against the dollar, raising fears of potential market intervention. Key events to watch include the Samsung Galaxy launch, AMD's AI event, and a slew of major tech earnings from Alphabet, Tesla, and IBM after the close on Wednesday, followed by the ECB meeting and Intel's earnings on Thursday.

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BIT Trading Moment: BTC Still Suppressed by Weekly 200 EMA, Rejection May Restart Decline; Storage and Semiconductors that Surged Last Night Begin Falling in Evening Trading

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Former CFTC Chairman, Circle President Tarbert: Preaching Long-Termism While Cashing Out $30 Million Himself

Former CFTC Chairman and Circle President Heath Tarbert has consistently advocated for a long-term vision in public, urging patience from investors as Circle’s stock price has fallen significantly from its peak. However, it has been revealed that since Circle’s IPO, Tarbert has continuously sold his CRCL shares through pre-arranged trading plans, cashing out approximately $30 million, without making any public market purchases. This contrast between his public messaging and personal actions has drawn criticism. Tarbert joined Circle in July 2023 as Chief Legal Officer, leveraging his regulatory experience to help guide the company through its IPO and expansion. Despite promoting stablecoins as long-term infrastructure, he established a 10b5-1 trading plan just before Circle went public, leading to substantial stock sales over the following year. In March 2026, he initiated another plan to sell more shares. His career trajectory highlights a pattern of moving between high-level regulatory roles and influential positions in the financial sector. After resigning as CFTC Chairman in early 2021, he joined Citadel Securities as Chief Legal Officer just 27 days later, during a period of intense regulatory scrutiny for the firm. He later joined Circle, aiding its efforts to navigate regulatory challenges for its public listing. While Tarbert's expertise in policy and compliance is valuable to companies like Circle, his actions—advocating long-term confidence while personally divesting—raise questions about the alignment between his public statements and his private financial decisions, leaving investors who followed his advice to bear the market risks.

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Former CFTC Chairman, Circle President Tarbert: Preaching Long-Termism While Cashing Out $30 Million Himself

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Gate Research Institute: The 'Wall Street-ization' Wave of Crypto Financial Products – Competition or Integration?

The article titled "Gate Research Institute: Are Crypto Financial Products Sparking a 'Wall Street' Wave—Competition or Convergence?" explores the evolving relationship between the crypto ecosystem and traditional finance (TradFi). The piece begins by reflecting on Bitcoin's original 2009 vision of decentralization, disintermediation, and moving away from banks. It then contrasts this with the 2024 landscape, where key crypto assets like Bitcoin are increasingly held through Wall Street products like ETFs issued by giants like BlackRock. The article questions whether this signifies that TradFi is systematically taking over the rights to issue, price, custody, and distribute crypto financial assets. The core argument is that this is not a zero-sum takeover but rather a bidirectional convergence where each side addresses the other's weaknesses. Crypto offers 24/7 global markets, programmable settlement, and open access but lacks compliant channels, institutional-grade custody, deep fiat liquidity, and mainstream distribution. TradFi possesses these but is constrained by legacy systems, limited operating hours, and slow settlement. Two primary convergence paths are highlighted: * **Path A (CEX to TradFi):** Exemplified by Gate, which has progressed from offering tokenized stocks and CFDs to providing direct, real stock trading (US, Hong Kong, South Korea) within its platform, using USDT. * **Path B (TradFi to Crypto):** Exemplified by Robinhood, which has integrated crypto trading, acquired exchanges like Bitstamp, and is moving traditional assets like stocks onto the blockchain via tokenization and its own Layer 2. Both paths are ultimately competing to become the next-generation, unified financial account—a "super account" where users can seamlessly trade cryptocurrencies, stocks, ETFs, RWA (Real World Assets), and tokenized treasury products in one interface. The growth of RWA and tokenized treasuries (e.g., BlackRock's BUIDL) is presented as the asset-layer fusion, providing stable, yield-bearing assets on-chain and acting as a bridge between the two worlds. In conclusion, the "Wall Street-ization" of crypto is framed as a mutual transformation. Decentralized ideals persist in the protocol layer, while at the application layer, a more efficient, global, and accessible unified capital market is emerging from this convergence. The future competition lies not between crypto exchanges and stockbrokers, but between platforms vying to offer the most comprehensive asset coverage, liquidity, and user experience within a single account.

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Gate Research Institute: The 'Wall Street-ization' Wave of Crypto Financial Products – Competition or Integration?

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