Panga Capital：三种加密叙事——厘清语义以洞察机遇

marsbitPubblicato 2025-12-29Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-12-29

Introduzione

加密货币不应被视为单一行业，而是一种全新的资产类别和基础技术，它将像电力和互联网一样彻底改变现有商业并创造新行业。文章指出，当前关于加密领域的讨论存在语义混淆，实际上应分为三类： 1. **加密货币（CryptoMoney）**：作为价值存储的硬通货叙事，如比特币，仍有增长潜力。 2. **加密技术（CryptoTech）**：包括Layer-1等基础设施，技术已趋于成熟，未来高回报机会较少。 3. **加密应用（CryptoApplications）**：面向用户的B2C/B2B应用，因成本更低或体验更优而被采用，同时涵盖AI智能体经济等新商业模式。作者认为，第三类加密应用是未来财富创造的主要领域，可能诞生千倍回报机会。AI与加密结合尤其值得关注，智能体网络将推动链上经济闭环形成。尽管短期市场波动存在，但加密技术将重构价值传递方式，重塑全球GDP。（注：原文强调观点不构成投资建议，加密货币风险较高，需理性评估。）

加密(Crypto)不应像量子计算或太空技术那样被仅仅视为一个单一的“行业”,而应被视为一种全新的资产类别和基础技术。就像上个世纪的电力和过去几十年的互联网一样,它将渗透并彻底改变许多现有的商业领域,同时也将创造出全新的行业。

无论是对于企业家还是投资者而言,那些既理解这项技术又洞悉现有市场的人——即理解加密技术将如何重塑这些市场并催生出加密原生(crypto-enabled)新巨头的人——将拥有显著优势,无论加密层最终是否会在用户端被抽象化(变得不可见)。

如果说互联网是一种以零边际成本将信息从一个人传递给另一个人的协议,那么加密技术就是一种以(几乎)零边际成本将价值从一个人传递给另一个人的协议。互联网已经颠覆了全球约 20% 的 GDP 并创造了许多新的商业模式。加密技术有潜力颠覆更大比例的全球 GDP,特别是在那些交易需要可信第三方参与的领域(如金融、法律、审计等),同时也能赋能全新的商业模式(如预测市场、DePIN 等)。

目前关于该领域的许多广泛讨论(以及近期一些人认为高额回报已不复存在的看法)很大程度上源于语义上的误解。人们通常用“Crypto”这一个词来描述三件截然不同的事物:

1. CryptoMoney(加密货币)

2. CryptoTech(加密技术)

3. CryptoApplications(加密应用)

1. CryptoMoney(加密货币)

我们将此定义为“硬通货 / 价值存储”叙事,这正是最初吸引许多人进入 BTC/Crypto 领域的原因。虽然我们不知道还有多少上涨空间或需要多长时间,但即使经历了近期的下跌,我们距离与黄金市值的平价也仅有约 20 倍的差距。

2. CryptoTech(加密技术)

这一类别主要指 Layer-1 等基础设施。这一领域虽然仍有创新发生,但我们接触的大多数应用开发者认为,现有的技术对于他们想要构建的产品来说已经“足够好”了。某些垂直领域可能仍需要特定的中间件,但总体而言,下一个 1000 倍的回报可能不会出现在这里。

3. CryptoApplications(加密应用)

指面向用户的 B2C 和 B2B 应用程序——之所以被采用,是因为加密方案相较现有方案更优或更低成本;同时也包括基于 CryptoTech 构建的新商业模式。

许多早期的应用构建者更关注代币上线,而不是构建应用程序本身。此外,整个“GameFi”领域迄今为止并未达到预期。但现在——随着稳定币业务、预测市场等的出现——我们确实看到更多高质量的开发者意识到,他们可以在加密技术之上构建真正的(甚至可以说是能产生收入的)应用程序。

AI 与 Crypto 的结合在我们看来非常有前景。 我们正在见证 AI 智能体(AI Agents)从仅专注于生产力提升的单一智能体,进化为参与大规模经济行为的智能体网络,从而形成一个智能体与人类协作的经济体。这种“智能体-人类协作经济”将在链上形成价值创造和消费的闭环。

Ribbit Capital 最近发布的《Token Letter》描绘了未来的图景:代币数量将迎来爆发式增长,而我们相信这些代币最终都将在链上发行并交易。总体而言,我们观察到 Web 3 + AI 领域的建设者与早期那一代主要关注代币本身的加密应用建设者是不同的。亚洲的开发者社区涌现出了许多新兴的 AI 智能体应用人才,其中许多人将会打造出拥有代币的公司。此外,《市场结构法案》(尤其是美国以外的类似监管框架)将成为催化剂,让开发者在监管清晰的前提下基于加密基础设施(crypto rails)进行构建。

尽管我们对这三者都使用“Crypto”这个术语,但在回报潜力方面区分 1、2 和 3 是非常重要的。

也许作为一个行业,我们应该想出一个新词;亦或者,我们可以专门使用“Web 3”这个词来聚焦于 CryptoApplication(加密应用) 类别。我们相信,第三类正是未来大部分财富将被创造的地方,也是未来几年内将构建出许多 1000 倍机会的领域。

我们不知道市场在短期内会如何表现,但黎明前总是最黑暗的。互联网重构了信息;加密技术将重构价值。整个行业不仅会被改变——它们将从头开始被重新发明。

原文链接:A Tale of Three Cryptos: Fixing the Semantics to See the Opportunity

本文内容编译自 Panga Capital 发布的文章《A Tale of Three Cryptos》,旨在提供信息分享与机构观点传达,不构成任何投资建议、要约或对任何产品的推荐。文中提及的“千倍回报”、“百倍机会”等表述均为原作者基于特定市场环境下的个人判断,具有极高的主观性和不确定性。

加密货币资产波动性较大,市场风险较高,请读者务必保持独立思考,严格遵守所在地法律法规,理性投资并自行承担风险。本文编译工作力求准确,但如与英文原文有出入,请以 Panga Capital 发布的英文原文为准。

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Domande pertinenti

Q根据文章，加密技术不应被视为一个单一的行业，而应被视为什么？

A加密技术不应被视为一个单一的行业，而应被视为一种全新的资产类别和基础技术，它将渗透并彻底改变许多现有的商业领域，同时也将创造出全新的行业。

Q文章将'Crypto'这一术语区分为哪三个截然不同的类别？

A文章将'Crypto'区分为三个类别：1. CryptoMoney（加密货币），即硬通货/价值存储叙事；2. CryptoTech（加密技术），主要指Layer-1等基础设施；3. CryptoApplications（加密应用），指面向用户的B2C和B2B应用程序以及基于加密技术的新商业模式。

Q文章认为未来大部分财富创造和1000倍机会将出现在哪个类别？

A文章认为，未来大部分财富创造和1000倍机会将出现在第三个类别，即CryptoApplications（加密应用）领域。

Q文章中提到AI与Crypto的结合前景如何？具体会形成什么样的经济模式？

A文章认为AI与Crypto的结合非常有前景。它将推动AI智能体从单一生产力工具进化为参与大规模经济行为的智能体网络，形成一个'智能体-人类协作经济'，这种经济模式将在链上形成价值创造和消费的闭环。

Q文章认为现有的加密基础设施（CryptoTech）对于应用开发者来说处于什么状态？

A文章指出，大多数应用开发者认为现有的加密技术（如Layer-1等基础设施）对于他们想要构建的产品来说已经'足够好'了。虽然该领域仍有创新，但下一个1000倍的回报可能不会出现在这里。

Letture associate

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The cryptocurrency market has just concluded its worst-performing quarter since 2022, with total capitalization dropping 12.6% to $2.1 trillion. All core metrics indicate capital is leaving the sector, not just rotating within it. Bitcoin fell 14.2% and Ethereum dropped 25.4% in Q2, breaking their previous correlation with US tech stocks. A key driver is the reversal in US spot Bitcoin ETF flows, which saw a net outflow of approximately $4.67 billion in Q2, including a record monthly outflow near $4.5 billion in June. While recent data suggests long-term holders are accumulating again, sustained ETF outflows mean continued selling pressure. Market focus is now singularly on the Federal Reserve. The upcoming July FOMC meeting is seen as the most critical event for Q3. A dovish signal could support Bitcoin reclaiming a $68,000-$84,000 range, while a hawkish stance might establish a new trading band around $50,000-$56,000. Additionally, regulatory uncertainty persists, with the progress of the crucial *CLARITY Act* stalling in the Senate, reducing its perceived 2026 passage probability to 40-45%. Despite the broad downturn, a few sectors showed growth. Prediction markets saw nominal volume surge 48.7% year-over-year to $113.8 billion, and tokenized collectibles transaction volume rose 143% quarterly to $1.4 billion. The Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization sector also continued steady growth, now representing ~$28.1 billion in on-chain value. The market's foundation for an extreme crash appears limited, with Bitcoin price hovering near its 200-week moving average. However, the trading paradigm has shifted from narrative-driven speculation to decisions based on price action, policy developments, and interest rate expectations, making a broad sentiment-driven rally unlikely in the near term.

marsbitIeri 08:36

After Three Consecutive Quarters of Decline, Can the Crypto Market Find a Window for Stabilization in Q3?

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BIT Trading Moment: BTC Still Suppressed by Weekly 200 EMA, Rejection May Restart Decline; Storage and Semiconductors that Surged Last Night Begin Falling in Evening Trading

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Former CFTC Chairman, Circle President Tarbert: Preaching Long-Termism While Cashing Out $30 Million Himself

Former CFTC Chairman and Circle President Heath Tarbert has consistently advocated for a long-term vision in public, urging patience from investors as Circle’s stock price has fallen significantly from its peak. However, it has been revealed that since Circle’s IPO, Tarbert has continuously sold his CRCL shares through pre-arranged trading plans, cashing out approximately $30 million, without making any public market purchases. This contrast between his public messaging and personal actions has drawn criticism. Tarbert joined Circle in July 2023 as Chief Legal Officer, leveraging his regulatory experience to help guide the company through its IPO and expansion. Despite promoting stablecoins as long-term infrastructure, he established a 10b5-1 trading plan just before Circle went public, leading to substantial stock sales over the following year. In March 2026, he initiated another plan to sell more shares. His career trajectory highlights a pattern of moving between high-level regulatory roles and influential positions in the financial sector. After resigning as CFTC Chairman in early 2021, he joined Citadel Securities as Chief Legal Officer just 27 days later, during a period of intense regulatory scrutiny for the firm. He later joined Circle, aiding its efforts to navigate regulatory challenges for its public listing. While Tarbert's expertise in policy and compliance is valuable to companies like Circle, his actions—advocating long-term confidence while personally divesting—raise questions about the alignment between his public statements and his private financial decisions, leaving investors who followed his advice to bear the market risks.

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Gate Research Institute: The 'Wall Street-ization' Wave of Crypto Financial Products – Competition or Integration?

The article titled "Gate Research Institute: Are Crypto Financial Products Sparking a 'Wall Street' Wave—Competition or Convergence?" explores the evolving relationship between the crypto ecosystem and traditional finance (TradFi). The piece begins by reflecting on Bitcoin's original 2009 vision of decentralization, disintermediation, and moving away from banks. It then contrasts this with the 2024 landscape, where key crypto assets like Bitcoin are increasingly held through Wall Street products like ETFs issued by giants like BlackRock. The article questions whether this signifies that TradFi is systematically taking over the rights to issue, price, custody, and distribute crypto financial assets. The core argument is that this is not a zero-sum takeover but rather a bidirectional convergence where each side addresses the other's weaknesses. Crypto offers 24/7 global markets, programmable settlement, and open access but lacks compliant channels, institutional-grade custody, deep fiat liquidity, and mainstream distribution. TradFi possesses these but is constrained by legacy systems, limited operating hours, and slow settlement. Two primary convergence paths are highlighted: * **Path A (CEX to TradFi):** Exemplified by Gate, which has progressed from offering tokenized stocks and CFDs to providing direct, real stock trading (US, Hong Kong, South Korea) within its platform, using USDT. * **Path B (TradFi to Crypto):** Exemplified by Robinhood, which has integrated crypto trading, acquired exchanges like Bitstamp, and is moving traditional assets like stocks onto the blockchain via tokenization and its own Layer 2. Both paths are ultimately competing to become the next-generation, unified financial account—a "super account" where users can seamlessly trade cryptocurrencies, stocks, ETFs, RWA (Real World Assets), and tokenized treasury products in one interface. The growth of RWA and tokenized treasuries (e.g., BlackRock's BUIDL) is presented as the asset-layer fusion, providing stable, yield-bearing assets on-chain and acting as a bridge between the two worlds. In conclusion, the "Wall Street-ization" of crypto is framed as a mutual transformation. Decentralized ideals persist in the protocol layer, while at the application layer, a more efficient, global, and accessible unified capital market is emerging from this convergence. The future competition lies not between crypto exchanges and stockbrokers, but between platforms vying to offer the most comprehensive asset coverage, liquidity, and user experience within a single account.

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