CME запустила аналог индекса волатильности VIX для биткоина

cryptonews.ruPubblicato 2025-05-02Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-12-03

Крупнейшая регулируемая биржа деривативов CME представила набор новых криптовалютных бенчмарков, включая индекс волатильности первой криптовалюты.

Measure bitcoin's expected market risk in real-time. 💥

The CME CF Volatility Benchmarks are now available, providing the first forward-looking implied volatility indices derived from our regulated options market. ➡️ https://t.co/cPVRnSbwed pic.twitter.com/nEgZDXNiLQ

— CME Group (@CMEGroup) December 2, 2025

Инструмент будет отслеживать подразумеваемую изменчивость опционов на фьючерсы биткоина, показывая ожидания трейдеров относительно ценовых колебаний актива в следующие 30 дней.

Как и VIX на фондовом рынке, показатель станет ключевым ориентиром для оценки неопределенности, ценообразования и хеджирования рисков. В релизе отмечается, что сам индекс не является торгуемым контрактом, а служит «стандартизированной точкой отсчета».

В набор также включены бенчмарки для Ethereum, Solana и XRP.

Рост активности

Институциональный интерес стал одним из драйверов крипторынка в текущем цикле. Этому способствовал не только ажиотаж вокруг биржевых фондов, но и активное развитие фьючерсов и опционов.

Криптодеривативы появились задолго до ETF, но долгое время этому сегменту уделялось меньше внимания на фоне масштабных притоков капитала в спотовые инвестпродукты на базе цифровых активов.

С момента запуска спотовые биткоин-ETF привлекли $57,7 млрд. Источник: SoSoValue.

Третий квартал отметился всплеском институциональной активности на CME. Совокупный объем торгов криптовалютными фьючерсами и опционами превысил рекордные $900 млрд.

К концу сентября среднесуточный открытый интерес достиг $31,3 млрд. Рост показателя свидетельствует о глубокой ликвидности рынка и уверенности крупных игроков.

Особое внимание инвесторы уделили инструментам на базе Ethereum. В сентябре объем торгов фьючерсами на основе этого актива обновил суточный рекорд — 543 900 контрактов на сумму $13,1 млрд. Одновременно открытый интерес взлетел до $10,6 млрд.

Источник: CME.

«Рекордные 118 крупных держателей открыли позиции по фьючерсам в августе; общий рост активности показывает, как институциональные инвесторы все активнее используют Ethereum», — добавили эксперты.

В третьем квартале также наблюдался всплеск спроса на фьючерсы по Solana и XRP. Их объемы установили исторические максимумы.

С марта количество контрактов по Solana превысило 730 000 на сумму $34 млрд, а по XRP — 476 000 на $23,7 млрд.

Источник: CME.

Напомним, в октябре CME запустила круглосуточную торговлю опционами и фьючерсами для инструментов на базе криптовалют.

Letture associate

GPT-5.6 Countdown: Abandon the Illusion of a Single API, Computational Iteration Can't Outpace a Single Page of Compliance

In mid-June, three seemingly independent industry events—the compliance-driven throttling of Fable 5, the open-sourcing of GLM-5.2, and the leaked release timeline for GPT-5.6—are pushing the global AI industry toward a watershed moment. These shifts signal a fundamental restructuring of the industry's underlying logic. First, **"usability" has substantially overtaken "advanced capabilities"** as the primary weight, pushing the global large language model (LLM) supply chain into a "dual-track" phase of controlled closed-source and local open-source coexistence. Second, **the competitive moats of closed-source giants are shifting**. Their technical focus is moving from "language intelligence" toward "spatial intelligence (world models)"—a domain heavily reliant on computing power. Third, faced with常态化 transnational compliance risks, **a "model-agnostic" decoupled design has become a survival necessity for application-layer developers to maintain business continuity.** The article details how Anthropic's Fable 5, despite its advanced engineering feats, was restricted for non-U.S. citizens within 72 hours of launch, highlighting how geopolitical compliance can instantly limit even the most advanced models. In response, the open-source camp, exemplified by Zhipu AI's MIT-licensed GLM-5.2, is gaining market share by offering stable performance improvements and significant cost advantages (up to 70% savings for enterprises), while achieving full adaptation with domestic semiconductor platforms. Meanwhile, closed-source leaders like OpenAI are pivoting. The anticipated GPT-5.6 reportedly shifts focus from language to spatial intelligence and world models, aiming to rebuild a generational gap in areas like 3D understanding, simulation, and industrial design that demand immense compute. The core conclusion is that the LLM supply chain's logic has changed. Enterprises must now evaluate infrastructure based on a composite of technical performance and policy compliance. For developers, complete reliance on a single closed-source API poses unacceptable risk. Implementing a truly model-agnostic architecture—enabling swift switches to compliant, locally deployable open-source alternatives—is no longer just good practice but a fundamental baseline for business continuity.

marsbit2 h fa

GPT-5.6 Countdown: Abandon the Illusion of a Single API, Computational Iteration Can't Outpace a Single Page of Compliance

marsbit2 h fa

Is the 'Token Subsidy War' Among AI Giants Almost Over?

The article discusses the ongoing "token subsidy war" among AI giants like OpenAI and Anthropic, questioning whether it's nearing its end. It reveals that current AI subscription prices are heavily subsidized, with some plans offering tokens at up to 70 times the actual cost to attract and retain heavy users, especially developers and enterprises. This strategy mirrors past internet-era subsidy battles, but with a key difference: AI tokens lack "lock-in" effects. Unlike ride-hailing or food delivery apps, users can easily switch between AI providers as APIs become standardized, making it difficult for companies to raise prices post-subsidy. The piece highlights a structural asymmetry in the competition. Giants like Google, with massive advertising revenue, can afford to subsidize tokens indefinitely, akin to using "tokens as a weapon." In contrast, venture-backed companies like OpenAI and Anthropic face pressure to become profitable, especially as they approach IPO. The article cites Google Ventures founder Bill Maris, who suggests Google could slash token prices by 80%, putting immense pressure on competitors. Two potential endgames are presented: the "internet service" model (subsidize, monopolize, then raise prices) and the "utility" model (tokens become a standardized, low-margin commodity like electricity). Given the low switching costs, the latter seems more likely. The competition may not have a single winner but could instead accelerate AI's evolution into a foundational, infrastructure-level technology, akin to a public utility. For now, users continue to benefit from heavily subsidized token costs.

marsbit2 h fa

Is the 'Token Subsidy War' Among AI Giants Almost Over?

marsbit2 h fa

Beyond the Stadium: The Profitable Games Surrounding the World Cup

"Beyond the Pitch: The Profit Game Around the World Cup" The FIFA World Cup transcends being a sporting spectacle, evolving into a massive global arena for speculation and profit-seeking. The 2026 tournament has amplified this dynamic, creating a multi-layered ecosystem of financial opportunism alongside the football. **Prediction markets** have surged into the mainstream. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi saw trading volumes for World Cup contracts soar, attracting new users with their financial trading model and high-profile, chain-based wealth stories that overshadow traditional sports betting in terms of growth and narrative. However, **traditional sportsbooks** remain the dominant force, leveraging established user habits, legal markets, and comprehensive product offerings to handle the vast majority of speculative wagers, with projections suggesting record-breaking betting volumes. Capital markets also react. **"Concept stocks"** in countries like South Korea and Japan experience volatile price swings based on team performance and anticipated fan spending on items like chicken, beer, and viewing parties, effectively becoming a stock market reflecting fan sentiment. The **ticket resale market** has become a sophisticated arena for arbitrage. Prices fluctuate wildly based on team draws and star power, with sellers sometimes listing tickets they don't yet own in a practice akin to short-selling, while FIFA's own "Right to Buy" tokens add another layer of speculative trading. **Collectibles and merchandise** offer another avenue. Panini sticker albums, with their inherent scarcity and nostalgic value, can become high-value collectibles. Limited-edition or locally themed jerseys command significant premiums on secondary markets, and even counterfeit vendors profit from fans' desire for affordable match-day identity. The **cryptocurrency** space has seen a frenzy of speculative, unauthorized World Cup-themed meme coins on chains like Solana. These tokens, often exploiting team names and player imagery, experience extreme pump-and-dump cycles, creating stories of massive gains for a few early entrants and steep losses for many others. Finally, an entire industry thrives on **providing information and tools** to other speculators. Developers create platforms like SeatSidekick to track ticket inventory and prices, while paid Telegram groups and subscriptions sell betting tips and predictions, monetizing the widespread desire for an informational edge. In essence, the World Cup has become a compressed, global laboratory for speculation. While the games determine champions on the field, a parallel, complex network of financial transactions—spanning prediction contracts, bets, stocks, tickets, collectibles, crypto, and information services—settles its own scores in the global market.

marsbit3 h fa

Beyond the Stadium: The Profitable Games Surrounding the World Cup

marsbit3 h fa

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片