Key Takeaways
How is Bitcoin performing?
Bitcoin is facing its second-biggest ETF outflows since its launch, and could set a new record.
Will BTC’s price rebound?
It was unlikely that the price of Bitcoin could reverse the losses incurred in November if it ends in red.
Bitcoin [BTC] slipped below the $100,000 mark and continued to trade below it as Bitcoin ETFs and quarterly returns followed the drain.
In the meantime, the entire crypto market rose slightly by less than a percent while the Fear & Greed Index hit 17, dipping to extreme fear levels.
Currently, the market seems to be heading towards its worst-ever month in terms of BTC ETF outflows and quarterly returns.
Bitcoin ETFs — Largest outflows yet?
As per data from SosoValue, Bitcoin ETFs were seeing the second-biggest outflow in 2025, which was at $2.33 billion while the month was still midway.
Similar outflows through the remaining weeks would see November hit a new record.
This year’s February had the biggest ETF outflows, which almost hit $4 billion. However, given that Bitcoin has now entered a discount zone after falling below $100K, the outflows could potentially reverse.
Source: SosoValue
The outflows have stemmed from the overall weakness seen in the market, with BTC’s price also facing a similar fate.
Particularly, BlackRock, Grayscale, Bitwise, and Fidelity led outflows in the past 24 hours, as per CoinGlass data.
BlackRock saw more than 4.65K BTC in outflows, contributing to more than 94% of the total 4.94K BTC on the day.
Quarterly returns: More alignment?
Bitcoin continued to struggle in terms of quarterly returns, as did Ethereum [ETH], which reflected a general market weakness.
Since 2018, when BTC lost more than 42% in the last quarter, this year’s quarter has come the closest. However, this quarter’s loss still represents about a third of that of 2018.
Other years were 2022 and 2019, which lost about 14.75% and 13.54%, respectively, as per CoinGlass data.
Source: CoinGlass
Ethereum was also seeing its worst returns since 2019. The returns were a reflection of the lost confidence among traders in the crypto sector.
Historical data indicated that every red November was followed by a similar December, making it unlikely for BTC to reverse this sentiment.
The pattern was evident in 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022, which were red in the last two months of the year.
Will BTC price reclaim support?
On the charts, BTC price slipped below a 15-month trendline support, as per Trader Tardigrade’s analysis on X (formerly Twitter). This further stressed the weakness of Bitcoin and its products, like ETFs.
Reclaiming the support level would be very bullish for BTC, while the reverse would extend losses. The next area of interest on the downside is around $80K, while on the upside, it is sitting at $126K.
Source: Trader Tardigrade
Notably, only a change in crypto market sentiment would change the current downtrend in price action, returns, and BTC ETF flows. November was headed to be the biggest with outflows if the current trend stayed.
However, given that prices had been declining for over a month and were at significant discounts, there was still potential for a rebound.
