Hawkish Rate Cut Triggers Rally Then Plunge: The Truth Behind Bitcoin's 'Painting the Door' Pattern
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 11, 2025, triggering a brief Bitcoin surge to $94,476, followed by a sharp reversal to $91,384. The initial rally was driven by algorithmic misinterpretation of a headline announcing the Fed’s $40 billion monthly Treasury purchases, mistakenly seen as quantitative easing (QE). In reality, these were short-term Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) aimed at maintaining banking system liquidity, not stimulating risk assets.
The market downturn accelerated as traders digested the Fed’s hawkish undertones: upward revisions to 2026 GDP growth (from 1.8% to 2.3%) and lower unemployment projections signaled economic strength, reducing the urgency for further rate cuts. This "no-landing" scenario weakened Bitcoin’s appeal as an inflation hedge or safe-haven asset.
Additionally, the Fed’s internal division—with three dissenting votes reflecting stark policy disagreements—highlighted unprecedented uncertainty about future monetary policy. Despite the rate cut, real interest rates remained restrictive due to persistent inflation. The episode underscored that Bitcoin can no longer rely solely on Fed-driven liquidity narratives and may face continued pressure as markets repricing risk amid economic resilience and policy ambiguity.
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