Bitcoin Cup And Handle Breakout Stalls Below $115K Goal, Analyst Notes

bitcoinistPubblicato 2025-03-24Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-03-24

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Bitcoin is currently trading in a tight range between short-term supply and demand, following weeks of heavy selling pressure that...

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Bitcoin is currently trading in a tight range between short-term supply and demand, following weeks of heavy selling pressure that sent shockwaves through the broader crypto market. After losing over 29% since its January all-time high, BTC is now searching for direction. Bulls must step up and reclaim the $90,000 level to restore confidence and confirm the start of a recovery rally. Until then, uncertainty remains the dominant theme.

Adding to this cautious sentiment is the broader macroeconomic backdrop, with trade war fears and global financial instability weighing heavily on investor confidence. Volatility in equities and geopolitical tensions have spilled into the crypto space, making it harder for Bitcoin to establish a clear trend.

Top crypto analyst Ali Martinez shared a technical analysis on X, revealing that Bitcoin may have completed a classic cup-and-handle formation, topping at around $109,000. However, this doesn’t necessarily signal further downside. Instead, it highlights that Bitcoin is currently without a defined direction.

For now, Bitcoin is holding its ground, but whether the next move is a breakout or a breakdown will depend on how the market responds in the days ahead.

Bitcoin Faces A Pivotal Test After 13% Rebound

Bitcoin has quietly rallied over 13% since its March 11 low near $76,600, with bulls now setting their sights on reclaiming the $88,000 level. This recent surge has brought cautious optimism to the market, but the path ahead remains uncertain. Bitcoin is currently facing a critical technical and psychological test, as it struggles to recover from a sharp downtrend that began after its January all-time high.

Investor sentiment has been mixed. Many entered 2025 with expectations of a strong bull run, but recent price action and growing macroeconomic concerns have prompted some analysts to call for the start of a bear market. According to Martinez, Bitcoin may have already completed a classic cup-and-handle pattern, topping out around $110,000—just $5,000 shy of the expected $115,000 target. If this technical blueprint holds true, the current correction may simply be part of a broader consolidation phase.

Bitcoin completes cup-and-handle pattern | Source: Ali Martinez on X
Bitcoin completes cup-and-handle pattern | Source: Ali Martinez on X

This view aligns with the idea that Bitcoin needs to stabilize before its next major move. Bulls must defend current levels and build momentum to push past the $90,000 barrier. Until then, BTC appears to be in a holding pattern, caught between the hope for a resumed uptrend and the fear of deeper downside risk.

BTC Price Hovers At $84K As Bulls Face Critical Resistance

Bitcoin is currently trading at $84,100 after several days of tight consolidation and slow price action around this level. Market participants are closely watching this range, as it represents a key short-term battleground between bulls and bears. For any meaningful recovery to take place, bulls must reclaim the $87,300 level, which aligns with both the 4-hour 200-day moving average (MA) and the 4-hour 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).

BTC testing resistance around $84K | Source: BTCUSDT Chart on TradingView
BTC testing resistance around $84K | Source: BTCUSDT Chart on TradingView

A decisive move above these indicators would likely spark a renewed push toward the $90,000 level, a psychological and technical barrier that could confirm the beginning of a short-term bullish trend. However, failure to reclaim $87,300 and maintain strength above $84,000 could tip the balance in favor of the bears.

If BTC loses the $84,000 support, the next likely target sits below $81,000, where lower demand zones could come into play. This would reinforce the ongoing uncertainty in the market and raise the risk of a deeper correction. As traders await direction, all eyes are on BTC’s ability to reclaim momentum and flip resistance into support. The next few sessions could be pivotal for Bitcoin’s short-term price structure.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView 

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Sebastian's journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies. As his knowledge grew, Sebastian felt compelled to share his insights with others. He began actively contributing to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn, focusing on fintech and crypto-related content. His goal was to expose valuable trends and insights to a wider audience, fostering a deeper understanding of the rapidly evolving crypto landscape. Sebastian's contributions quickly gained recognition, and he became a trusted voice in the online crypto community. To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology. Sebastian's passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K forms, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance. Sebastian's journey as a crypto analyst and investor has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable asset to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and contributing to the growth of this revolutionary technology.

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Bankless Co-founder: Why I Sold All My ETH

Author David Hoffman, founder of Bankless, explains his decision to sell all his ETH, despite being a prominent figure in the Ethereum ecosystem. He clarifies that his move is not a bearish take on Ethereum itself, which he remains highly optimistic about as a network. His core argument is that the "ETH is money" thesis, which he helped popularize, has largely played out. Hoffman argues that ETH has achieved the market valuation it deserves based on Ethereum's current success and competitive position. He details several reasons for this view. First, the path for ETH to become global money required nearly flawless execution and sustained dominance across Ethereum's entire technical and social stack—a coordination challenge he now believes had a narrower window for success than anticipated. Second, market data shows a strong correlation between L1 chain activity/fees and the price of its native asset; Ethereum's fee dominance has been challenged by competitors like Solana. Third, the "strong version" of crypto (decentralized, native crypto economies) that ETH's monetary thesis relied upon has struggled to maintain a positive mainstream narrative and stable adoption beyond a brief period. Finally, Ethereum's architecture as a "giver"—providing secure block space and tokenization capabilities at cost to L2s and applications—means it doesn't capture premium value directly. Its rollup-centric roadmap further directs most profits to L2s and applications ("fat app theory"). In conclusion, Hoffman believes the opportunity for ETH to be revalued significantly upward as money has diminished. He sold not because ETH will fail, but because its monetary thesis has matured, and he seeks to allocate capital to other opportunities he finds more compelling.

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Bankless Co-founder: Why I Sold All My ETH

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From Issuer to Infrastructure Owner: Circle's Arc Strategy and the Fatal Gap in the GENIUS Act

Circle raised $222 million for its proprietary Layer-1 blockchain, Arc, positioning itself not just as a stablecoin issuer but as the owner of the settlement infrastructure USDC relies on. This move, backed by investors like BlackRock and Apollo, highlights a significant structural conflict unaddressed by the GENIUS Act of 2025. While the act focuses on stablecoin reserves and issuer oversight, it remains silent on the market structure implications of an issuer controlling the underlying network—a scenario akin to a currency issuer also owning the payment rails. Traditionally, financial regulations separate issuers from settlement infrastructure to ensure neutrality. With Arc, Circle gains control over transaction ordering, fees, and network rules, potentially favoring USDC over competitors. The article argues that this creates a permanent structural temptation, even if no abuse occurs. The solution lies in applying established market infrastructure principles: mandating neutral transaction ordering, transparent fee schedules, and governance separated from Circle’s commercial interests. The current pre-mainnet phase offers a critical window for regulators to establish these rules before Arc becomes entrenched. Once operational, enforcing changes would be costly and disruptive. The core question remains: should a regulated stablecoin issuer be allowed to own the settlement network its competitors must use? The GENIUS Act doesn’t answer this, but Circle’s Arc strategy makes it urgent.

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From Issuer to Infrastructure Owner: Circle's Arc Strategy and the Fatal Gap in the GENIUS Act

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