质押奖励究竟是不是区块链的隐形成本?

链捕手Pubblicato 2024-10-03Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-10-03

原文作者:Franklin Templeton Digital Assets

原文编译:Alex Liu,Foresight News

 

对区块链而言,质押奖励是成本吗?

在加密货币社区中,关于质押奖励是否应被视为网络成本的问题一直存在争议,因为这些代币激励措施增加了代币总供应量(从而稀释了被动持有者)。这一争议进一步复杂化,因为各方对「成本」的定义并不统一,存在对「成本」的不同理解。这篇研究文章的目的是从我们的角度定义质押奖励是否是分布式网络的成本。

什么是质押奖励?

质押奖励是提供给那些选择在权益证明(PoS)网络上质押其代币的代币持有者的。这个过程涉及锁仓数字资产,以帮助验证交易并保护区块链网络。这些质押的代币作为验证者的抵押品,承诺以诚实的方式行事。如果验证了欺诈性交易,将会失去(slashing)这部分抵押品。这些抵押品是以区块链的原生资产计价的(以太坊使用 ETH,Solana 使用 SOL)。

质押奖励导致代币供应量的通货膨胀,因为奖励是通过新铸造的代币分发给诚实的验证者的,验证者质押其资本以此保障网络安全。例如,截至 2024 年 9 月 18 日,ETH 和 SOL 的年化通货膨胀率分别约为 0.8% 和 5.0% ,这完全是由质押奖励产生的。

争议:

从一个角度看,网络价值受代币数影响,质押奖励引入了新的供应量,将相同的价值分配给更多的代币,从而降低了代币价格。相反,另一种观点认为网络价值是以市值定义的,因此质押奖励并不是网络的成本,因为它们纯粹是非质押者向质押者的价值转移。我们的观点是,这两种看法都是正确的,只是从不同的角度来看待问题。质押奖励对代币价格来说是一种成本,因为供应量在增加;但它并不是网络价值的成本,因为代币供应影响的是代币的总数,而不是总价值。下表说明了从 t 期到 t+ 1 期供应量变化对代币价值的假设动态:

质押奖励究竟是不是区块链的隐形成本?

我们认为,关键点在于,尽管整个网络价值保持不变,但代币供应量的增加导致每个代币的价值下降。我们不认为增加供应会改变网络价值。而如果认为代币价值不会因供应量增加而受到影响,就像是相信钱会从天上掉下来一样。

从质押奖励只是非质押者向质押者的价值转移这一角度来看,我们在下图中进一步阐述了这一点。图中展示了 PoS 网络中从 t 期到 t+ 1 期代币价格和价值转移的过程。我们假设 60% 的代币供应被质押,通货膨胀率为 10% (通过质押奖励)。可以看到,网络价值保持不变,因为在这两个时期中唯一重要的变量是代币供应量。

质押奖励究竟是不是区块链的隐形成本?

如表所示,代币价值受到了约 9% 的稀释,进一步证明了我们认为质押不会影响网络价值,但会稀释代币的价值。非质押者的网络价值变化与整体代币价值的变化百分比相同。对于质押者来说,质押的初始本金与非质押者一样被稀释;然而,质押者通过质押奖励获得的收益多于因稀释所造成的损失。投资者可以通过链上数据或第三方质押指数(如 CESR 指数 —— 综合以太坊质押收益率)来监控这些奖励的质押收益率,该指数跟踪以太坊链上的此类收益。

那么,质押奖励是否是网络的成本?我们认为,质押奖励并不是网络整体价值的成本。然而,质押奖励确实代表着在当前时刻代币持有者的的一种支出。

Letture associate

Yen Hits 40-Year Low, What Will Japan Use to Price in Shorts?

The Japanese yen is hovering near a 40-year low against the U.S. dollar, with the USD/JPY pair approaching 164 in July. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki has issued stern warnings of potential "bold" action to counter disorderly market movements, placing the 163-165 range in focus as a key policy test zone for authorities. The yen's weakness extends beyond dollar strength, as evidenced by its low trade-weighted index, which pressures import costs and inflation—particularly with elevated oil prices. This dynamic increases the likelihood of further Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes. The Ministry of Finance is first aiming to raise the cost for yen short-sellers through verbal intervention and the threat of action, rather than immediately altering fundamentals. While direct FX intervention remains a high-barrier option, slower-moving factors like potential BoJ rate hikes and asset rebalancing by Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) could provide more sustained support for the yen. The core risk for carry trades—which involve borrowing low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding assets—is not an imminent unwind but a sudden spike in yen volatility. As policymakers deploy a mix of warnings, rate hike expectations, and potential fund flows, the cost and risk of shorting the yen are increasing. The 163-165 zone is becoming an area where policy responses could trigger a broader repricing, making the yen a more critical variable for global risk asset leverage.

marsbit8 min fa

Yen Hits 40-Year Low, What Will Japan Use to Price in Shorts?

marsbit8 min fa

In the Second Half of 2026, Commodities Enter an Era of 'High-Frequency Black Swans'

Heading into the second half of 2026, Citigroup warns that the commodities market is entering an era of "High-Frequency Black Swans," where extreme, paradigm-shifting events are becoming increasingly common. The report outlines major tail-risk scenarios beyond its baseline forecasts. The highest-impact scenario is a prolonged US-Iran conflict disrupting Gulf energy infrastructure and key shipping chokepoints, potentially causing a sustained 5-10 million barrel per day oil supply deficit and pushing crude prices above $200/barrel. Other geopolitical risks include stricter sanctions on Russian energy, which would hit gas markets harder than oil, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG). A high-probability risk is a global scramble by governments to stockpile critical minerals. Large-scale strategic buying, particularly of copper, could drive prices above $20,000/ton. For gold, Citigroup sees near-term downside risk towards $3,800/ounce before a potential long-term rally to $6,000/ounce, supported by central bank demand and de-dollarization trends. An extreme El Niño weather pattern poses a medium-probability, high-impact threat to agriculture, potentially sending cocoa prices back to $10,000/ton and sugar above 20 cents/pound. The AI boom presents a dual-sided risk: a bust would hurt metals and power demand, while sustained growth would exacerbate structural deficits in copper and aluminum. Two other significant scenarios are the finalization of Russia's Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline to China, which could depress Asian LNG prices to $5-6/MMBtu in the 2030s, and an extreme application of the Monroe Doctrine blocking Americas oil exports, which could create a price split with global benchmarks soaring above $100/barrel while regional benchmarks crash. The overarching conclusion is that traditional supply-demand analysis may fail in a market where such high-impact, interconnected shocks are becoming more frequent.

marsbit9 min fa

In the Second Half of 2026, Commodities Enter an Era of 'High-Frequency Black Swans'

marsbit9 min fa

Trading

Spot
活动图片