BitMEX Alpha本周加密市场洞察

Odaily星球日报Pubblicato 2024-09-13Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-09-13

Introduzione

宏观信号喜忧参半，加密货币市场正进入整合阶段。

您的一周加密市场统计数据、新闻头条和交易想法，尽在这里。

简要概述

  • 由于宏观信号喜忧参半，加密货币市场正进入整合阶段。虽然通胀和流动性指数等宏观数据有利，但日元同时走强，可能对牛市构成威胁。

  • 本周备受期待的总统辩论对加密货币而言是个无关紧要的事件，两位候选人都未提及这个话题。

  • TOKEN 2049 新加坡大会将于下周举行。市场是否会延续往年的趋势出现下跌，还是这次会有所不同？

  • 我们将深入探讨 Solana 在年底前会持续跑赢大盘的可能。

数据概览

BitMEX Alpha本周加密市场洞察

表现优异的币种：

  • $FTM (+ 24.5% )：FTM 是过去一周表现最佳的L1公链，其 Sonic 升级和创始人 Andre Cronje 的看涨言论使其表现出色。

  • $SUI (+ 23.5% )：Grayscale 宣布其 Grayscale Sui Trust 现已向有意投资$SUI 的合格投资者开放。

  • $TON (+ 14.2% )：币安宣布上市 Hamster Kombat——这是 TON 生态系统中的一个小游戏。

表现不佳的币种：

  • $LTC (-5.3% )：莱特币自 5 月以来一直呈缓慢下降趋势。

  • $ETH (-1.8% )：大型机构持续存入以太坊到交易所，使其表现仍然不及比特币。

  • $WIF (-0.6% )：随着以太坊 EtherVista 上新的 meme 币获得关注，WIF 正在失去动力。

新闻动态

宏观：

  • ETH ETF 周流出：-2040 万美元 (来源)

  • BTC ETF 周流出：-2930 万美元 (来源)

  • 8 月 CPI 报告：通胀降至 2.5% ，但核心价格显得更加顽固 (来源)

  • 最新逆回购（RRP）数据降至年度低点，表明流动性趋于宽松 (来源)

  • 日经指数连续第七天下跌，因日元走强带来压力 (来源)

  • 金价创历史新高，美国 PPI 数据支持美联储降息预期 (来源)

项目

  • 1inch Network 发布跨链创新白皮书 (来源)

  • Azuki NFT 创作者推出 NFT 域名 Anime.com (来源)

  • Ethervista：VISTA 应用即将推出 (来源)

  • EigenLayer：第二季 Stakedrop 认领将于 9 月 17 日或之前开放（来源）

  • 长期 TRX 持有者地址数量一年内增长 237% （来源）

  • Grayscale 将在美国推出首个 XRP 信托基金，为潜在 ETF 铺平道路（来源）

  • DEX 市场竞争加剧，Uniswap 市场份额下降至 36% （来源）

  • 唐纳德·特朗普宣布 World Liberty Financial 的启动日期 (来源)

  • 自 Dencun 升级以来，以太坊 L1 协议从 Layer 2 获得的收入几乎为零 (来源)

交易 Alpha

注意：以下内容不构成财务建议。这是市场新闻的汇编，我们始终鼓励您在执行任何交易前进行自己的研究。以下内容并不意味着表达任何保证回报，BitMEX 对您的交易表现不如预期不承担责任。

做多 $SOL：Solana Breakpoint 即将到来

SOL 计划在 2025 年第一季度进行重要的代币解锁，但这可能已经被市场定价。需要关注的主要即将到来的事件可能是 Solana Breakpoint，它将在下周末举行 - 我们会在此之前看到涨势吗？

Solana 的大问题是：我们可以在这个备受期待的聚会上期待什么？上一次活动揭示了令人兴奋的发展，如 $JUP 空投和 $IO 的引入——所以这次的期望很高。

之前的担忧

我们之前概述了做空 $SOL 的理由，主要是由于缺乏持续增长的催化剂：

  • 自空投季节结束以来，新的原生项目已经枯竭

  • meme 币交易正在失去动力

  • 没有出现新的引人注目的叙事或项目

这种情况可能如何改变？

BitMEX Alpha本周加密市场洞察

即将举行的 Solana Breakpoint 大会可能会揭示一些有趣的发展。

正如 Multicoin Capital 的报告所强调的，大多数 DePIN 项目现在都依赖于 Solana — @Hivemapper、@helium、@rendernetwork、@ionet、@kuzco_xyz、@teleportxyz 和 @GEODNET_。

像 Stripe 这样的私营公司，以及 Visa 和 PayPal 等财富 500 强金融科技巨头已经选择 Solana 作为他们的平台（或几个平台之一）。此外，随着最近代币扩展的推出，Solana 正在占据重要的 RWA 市场份额。Hamilton Lane 甚至在 Solana 区块链上推出了一只信贷基金。Solana 的雪球效应正在增强。

Solana 最近的成功体现在其与以太坊和其他模块化网络相比使用率的增加。以太坊上的用户活动相对于 Solana 一直在下降，这可能是由于其糟糕的用户体验、高延迟和高费用，以及对 L2 的依赖增加（这侵蚀了 ETH 的主要价值捕获机制，MEV）。

BitMEX Alpha本周加密市场洞察

在过去一个季度中，Solana 上的每日活跃新地址数量持续超过以太坊L1，展示了用户从高昂交易费用环境向 Solana 低成本生态系统的迁移。

我们预计 Solana 的势头将持续到年底并延续至 2025 年，这主要由 Firedancer 的推出和即将在新加坡举行的年度 Solana Breakpoint 大会推动。

Firedancer 是由 Jump Trading（全球最大的高频交易公司之一）正在构建的新验证器客户端，专注于网络速度和性能。Jump Trading 在低延迟交易系统方面数十年的经验使他们特别适合这项任务。预计 Firedancer 将超越当前的 Solana 客户端，显著 benefiting Solana DeFi 协议和用户。Firedancer 使用与现有 Solana 客户端不同的语言编写，理论上应该能防止单个 bug 或故障影响整个网络。多个网络客户端因此提高了 Solana 的弹性，同时增强了速度。

Solana 上的下一个叙事：PayFi

Solana 上的 PayFi 通过解决现实世界的金融挑战，为区块链采用提供了一个令人信服的案例。它利用 Solana 的高速、低成本基础设施，提供即时结算、增强安全性和降低成本。至关重要的是，PayFi 对全球市场（包括无银行账户人群）的可访问性可能会推动 Solana 的用户大幅增长，同时解决金融包容性问题。这种在日常交易中实际应用区块链技术的方式可能会巩固 Solana 作为实际用例领先区块链的地位。

还可以期待什么：

除了 PayFi 和消费者领域的半隐秘项目外，我们还期待 Solana Actions 和 Blinks 的更新。这些功能可能会吸引更多用户进入加密货币领域，使其成为另一个令人兴奋的发展方向。

关于现有项目如 Jupiter 的重大主题演讲也有传言在流传。在上一届 Breakpoint 大会上宣布了他们的代币后，许多人期待该项目可能会宣布移动交易应用、链上股票、第二轮空投或奖励，或者他们产品线的重大更新。敬请关注。

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