Vitalik 详谈他最喜欢和最厌恶的应用:金融是远远不够的 原则是什么?

比推Pubblicato 2024-08-26Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-08-26

编译 | 吴说区块链

8 月 25 日针对这一提问,Vitalik 进行了多段详细的回复。

问题:我最近观看了 SteadyLads 的最新一期节目,里面有 Kain。我必须承认,我之前完全不知道 Vitalik 和 EF 不喜欢 DeFi……

这几乎让人难以置信。

ETH 的绝大部分价值都来自它在 DeFi 中的抵押用途,为什么会有人希望看到更少的 DeFi 协议被开发呢?

我真心希望这不是真的。老实说,如果这是真的,我会有点失望,因为我经常看到 Vitalik 赞扬 USDC,而我觉得 USDC 在加密货币中的应用并不那么令人印象深刻。

在宣传像 USDC 这样(实际上削弱 ETH 作为价值储存和链中立性的东西)的同时,却又要求减少 DeFi(DeFi 是 ETH 最重要的价值来源),这几乎有点讽刺。

如果要对这种观点表示同情,我会说可能 Vitalik 是一个纯粹主义者,他认为我们目前的很多 DeFi 并不是真正的 DeFi,因为它依赖于受信任的预言机和多签名(这个批评是有道理的),他可能会鼓励更多 “纯粹的 DeFi”,比如像 Uniswap 那样没有外部依赖的 DeFi。

但我无法读懂 Vitalik 的想法,所以我不清楚他真正的看法。我只是觉得很难相信他对 DeFi 的看法真的那么悲观,如果真是这样,对我们这些在时间线上为 ETH 辩护并使用这条链的人来说,这将是非常令人沮丧的。

如果你和 V 有联系,我请求你把这些话转告给他。我仍然不太相信他不喜欢 DeFi 的说法,但我更希望从他本人那里听到答案。

Vitalik 回应:

我想要看到的应用类型是那些 (i) 可持续地有用,并且 (ii) 不牺牲基本原则(如无许可性、去中心化等)的应用。

我认为去中心化交易所(DEX)非常棒,我每周都会用它们。

我认为去中心化稳定币(例如 RAI)也非常棒。

我认为 Polymarket 也非常棒。

我认为 USDC 不如 RAI 好,但实际上我们必须承认它非常方便,而且很多人都在使用。对我个人来说,在进行国际捐赠时,USDC 比银行转账方便得多。我们在这里的目标是让全球经济和社会更加开放和自由,而在新兴市场中,人们使用稳定币自由交易是一个真实存在的用例。USDC 在以太坊上的交易也比在中心化交易所内的账户间转账要好得多,这也是常见的情况。如果有大量的人使用 USDC,这将创造一个环境,使得人们更容易转向其他更加去中心化的稳定币。

我不尊重的东西,基本上是那些吸引力来自于某种没有可持续性的临时来源的东西。例如,我对 2021 年流行的流动性挖矿狂潮没有任何兴奋感,因为很明显它是由代币发行推动的,而这种发行本质上是暂时的。

如果有人告诉我 “你可以通过把你的币存放在这里获得不错的收益”,我总是会问,“这些收益从哪里来?”。交易的另一方是谁,谁在支付这些收益?在那些有明确答案并且有充分理由相信在 5 年后依然成立的情况下,我当然会对此感到兴奋。

我们都应该同意,金融本身是不够的。在当今世界的技术中,有太多快速增长的中心化点和威胁:

· 持续的对加密通讯的政治攻击;

· 中央化的身份系统和信用评分;

· 不安全的 / 专有操作系统中的漏洞 / 后门;

· 社交媒体——既有政府强加给平台的审查,也有平台自身算法的不透明性和中心化;

· 少数几个强大的国家通过掐断互联网的某些部分,获得了越来越多的权力,从而在世界另一端剥夺人们的发声权;

· 来自中央化人工智能的监控、去平台化和经济统治的风险;

· 类似的关于即将到来的读心技术(脑机接口,BCI)的担忧;

等等等等。

即使你能将金融魔术般地变得完美无缺,如果我们在这些其他问题上出错了,世界仍然会非常糟糕,尤其是在我们进入加密领域时所关心的所有哲学层面上。

同时,金融是抵抗这些趋势的任何策略中的关键部分。如果你的支付方式不能保护隐私,那么就不是真正匿名的,因此我非常感谢 RAILGUN 项目为我提供了这样做的方式(并对 0xbowio 在扩大隐私的同时尽量减少坏人从这些协议中受益的工作感到兴奋,而且这些都没有后门)。Polymarket 是一部分金融,但不仅仅是金融。Farcaster 是社交,但使用了金融组件来防止垃圾信息。我怀疑去中心化社交的可持续货币化策略将涉及去中心化金融(当任何人都可以构建客户端时,广告的固有限制更多,所以你必须尝试其他方法)。

因此,我认为去中心化金融和其他去中心化技术之间的交叉将非常重要。而 “其他去中心化技术” 是一个自然不会获得数亿美元风投资金的领域,所以我认为今天它需要明确的高水平支持,尽管我理想的情况是我们能够找到稳定的反馈循环来促进其发展。

吴说 Colin 提问:如果基于无须许可和去中心化而产生的代币或产品,不可避免地会被犯罪分子、骗子或绑架者利用,该怎么办?还是这只是我们必须接受的成本,如同一把难以避免的双刃剑?

Vitalik 回复:我们这个领域需要以有原则的方式引领反诈骗技术的构建(因为如果我们不这样做,中心化的版本将以不讲原则的方式被强加给我们)。

“有原则的” 基本意味着:

(i) 设备上的扫描,不会将任何信息发送给(公司或政府的)老大哥 (ii) 用户可以非常细致地选择接受和不接受哪些扫描器,扫描器由一个竞争激烈的市场中的不同组织生产,这些组织结构各异(盈利的、社区组织等),并带有不同的国家或政治倾向。

为了减少加密货币绑架事件,应该鼓励富有的加密货币持有者将他们的资金保存在他们自己无法直接通过身上的信息或物品访问的多签名账户中。我就是这样做的,并且我已经倡导其他人这样做十年了(因此我一直专注于智能合约钱包和账户抽象)。

说明: 比推所有文章只代表作者观点,不构成投资建议

Letture associate

Will There Be a Next Wave of Web3 Games? Veteran Player's Review: At the Peak of Hype, You Should at Least Sell Half

**Title: Is There Another Wave for Web3 Gaming? A Veteran Player's Review: When Hype Peaks, You Must Exit at Least Half** **Summary:** In an interview, veteran player "Earn Money Chicken" shares his journey and reflections on Web3 gaming. He transitioned from being a traditional in-game trader to a Web3 gamer, having profited from games like Mobox, StepN, and Seraph, but also experiencing significant losses. He defines himself primarily as a player, not an investor, attracted to Web3 games for the blend of earning potential, engaging gameplay, and the satisfaction of researching game mechanics. While he enjoys strategic "gambling" within games, he emphasizes it's not about zero-sum competition with other players. The interview explores the complex, often adversarial relationship between players, projects, and major investors (whales). The player's experience as a traditional game merchant helped develop his analytical mindset for spotting opportunities, but wasn't directly transferable. He identifies the core sources of profit in early Web3 gaming as **"era红利" (era-specific红利)** and strategic foresight, not just simple calculations. He warns that the biggest mistake ordinary players make is calculating their return-on-investment (ROI) period at peak hype, as asset and yield depreciation can trap them. Reflecting on his wins and losses, he now advocates for managing expectations. His most successful exit was from Seraph, where he sold at a relatively good time. The key problem with current Web3 games, he argues, is that most are not mature games first. A successful Web3 game must primarily be a **good, fun game** with a genuine player base willing to spend money for enjoyment, not just participants seeking profit. The blockchain element should solve problems within that context, not be the primary driver. While he believes the sector might see another speculative boom (possibly another strong "Ponzi" model attracting hype), a truly mature and sustainable Web3 game likely needs to come from a traditional major game studio. It would leverage a proven IP, mature content, a functional NFT trading system, and attract both traditional and crypto-native players, offering more normalized returns rather than extreme暴利. His final advice: Newcomers without prior experience should avoid the space now, as it's like searching for a diamond in the rough. For those remaining, the rule is: be brave when assets are low and overlooked, but **when everyone is talking about it (at peak hype), you must sell at least half your holdings.**

marsbit38 min fa

Will There Be a Next Wave of Web3 Games? Veteran Player's Review: At the Peak of Hype, You Should at Least Sell Half

marsbit38 min fa

The Most Hidden AI Winners

"The Most Under-the-Radar AI Winners" While core AI giants and their direct suppliers have dominated headlines, a group of seemingly unrelated, decades-old manufacturing companies have emerged as major beneficiaries. A key example is Japan's TOTO, famous for bathroom fixtures. Its stock soared 145% in a year, driven not by its mainstay toilet business but by its nearly 40-year-old semiconductor ceramic component unit. Specifically, TOTO manufactures electrostatic chucks—critical, hard-to-replace parts for advanced chip manufacturing processes like etching and EUV lithography. This segment, though only 9% of revenue, contributed over 54% of operating profit in FY2025 with a 43% margin. High barriers to entry, including deep know-how in high-purity ceramic sintering and long supplier certification cycles (5+ years), secure its position. This pattern repeats across industries. Nitto Boseki, a 128-year-old glass fiber maker, saw its stock rise 325% due to near-monopoly supply of T-glass, an essential low-expansion material for AI chip substrates. Similarly, Ajinomoto, the global MSG leader, commands 80-95% of the market for ABF film, a vital insulating layer in chip packaging. These "hidden" segments, often born from deep materials science expertise, are now bottleneck supplies in the AI hardware chain, enjoying pricing power and high margins. In China's A-share market, the theme combines this AI-driven demand with domestic substitution. Companies like Zhongci Electronic (advancing in electrostatic chucks) and Honghe Technology & Feilihua (in high-end electronic glass fabrics) are gaining traction. The investment thesis hinges on whether these domestic players can rapidly scale qualified capacity to capture the supply gap within the critical time window. Ultimately, these cases show that in the AI supply chain, high-profit concentrations exist not only at the cutting-edge tech frontier but also in indispensable, difficult-to-replicate materials and components. Market recognition often lags behind fundamental profit shifts, creating potential for significant re-ratings as traditional industrial firms are re-evaluated as key enablers of advanced semiconductor manufacturing.

marsbit1 h fa

The Most Hidden AI Winners

marsbit1 h fa

The Most Secretive Winners of the AI Boom

"The Most Hidden AI Winners" An unlikely group of companies are emerging as major beneficiaries of the AI boom, not from designing chips, but from supplying critical materials and components essential for advanced semiconductor manufacturing. These 'hidden winners' are traditional manufacturers whose deep expertise in materials science has become indispensable. Japanese companies are leading this trend. Toto, globally known for bathroom fixtures, has seen its stock surge 145% over the past year, driven by its 40-year-old semiconductor ceramics business, which now contributes over half of its operating profit. Its electrostatic chucks are vital for advanced chip production and require years of expertise to manufacture. Similarly, Nittobo, a 128-year-old textile firm, controls 90% of the market for T-glass, a low-expansion glass fiber essential for AI chip substrates. Ajinomoto, the world's largest MSG producer, dominates the market (80-95% share) for ABF insulating film used in chip packaging. The core insight is that chasing "advanced" chips paradoxically increases reliance on traditional, high-precision material science where supply cannot be quickly replicated. These materials are now critical bottlenecks in the AI supply chain. This trend is mirrored in China's A股 market, framed by the theme of 'import substitution'. Companies like Zhongci Dianzi (electrostatic chucks) and Honghe Technology (ultra-thin electronic cloth) are making progress, but face the test of scaling production and matching Japanese rivals' quality. The key tension lies in the slow change of market perception. While profit structures rapidly shift towards high-margin tech components, these firms retain their traditional industry classifications, creating a valuation gap that is gradually closing as their roles in the AI ecosystem become undeniable.

链捕手1 h fa

The Most Secretive Winners of the AI Boom

链捕手1 h fa

Trading

Spot
活动图片