ORDI铭文的价值分析|疑问解答

币界网Pubblicato 2024-08-24Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-08-24

币界网报道:

1. Matic和ORDI哪个比较有前途?

我第一眼看到这个问题时觉得这就是个单纯比较投资标的的问题。但细想一下,又觉得这个问题如果发挥一下从不同的角度看或许会得出很有意思的联想。

单纯看这两个币,我首先想到的是风险:也就是这两个币哪个风险要小?

如果从这个角度看,那我肯定认为ORDI的风险小。因为ORDI归零的可能性极小,但Matic归零的可能性起码比ORDI要大。

我们更深入一点:

这么多以太坊的二层扩展,如果哪一天Matic没了或者归零了,我们会觉得可惜吗?似乎不会。我们会觉得以太坊生态受影响了吗?似乎也不会。

但如果哪一天ORDI归零了,我会立马想:这一轮比特币创新的原点没了,如果ORDI都能归零,那其它的铭文资产有哪个是安全的?如果铭文资产都不安全,那比特币第二层扩展的锚点在哪里,比特币生态的发展方向的根基又是什么?

所以从风险角度看,ORDI的意义远大于Matic。

但如果我们放眼未来,看未来的应用场景,那想象力就可以完全不同。

ORDI本身是个固化了的资产,它本身不承担技术的升级和改造,更不承载未来生态的发展,它的增长潜力完全取决于比特币生态的共识,与它自身关系不大。这是一种被动的关系。

而Matic不同,它的希望和潜力一定在它未来生态的发展,完全取决于这个项目团队的运营和建设。这是一种主动的关系。

如果Matic能够在生态发展方面产生奇迹,那它的潜力就大,甚至可能超过ORDI;但如果继续像现在这样萎靡,那潜力就非常有限。

所以对比评价这两个币的未来如何,那就要看投资者如何综合地看它们的风险和应用潜力了。

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2. 期权算合约吗?XXX的双币赢可以玩吗?

我只买卖现货,而且每年操作的次数极其有限,也就是定投和定抛的那几次操作。

其它的任何金融工具我都不用,它们都不适合我。

任何中心化交易所的理财、抽奖、质押等等活动我都没有参加。交易所对我来说已经非常陌生了。

3. 衡量L2和L3的成功要素有哪些?这些链的主要矛盾是什么?貌似之前的TVL已经失效了

衡量L2、L3成功的要素现在没有一个统一的标准,我觉得现在一般用来衡量L2、L3的那些要素比如交易量、交易笔数、TVL也都不太可靠。

我反倒觉得一个直观的要素更可靠:那就是哪个L2、L3上如果有一个大家非用不可或者非常热门或者永载史册的应用,那我就觉得那个L2、L3很不错。

TVL只是个静态标准,它没法反应一个应用的活跃度,在我看来只能算是当下的环境中用来衡量一个系统热门程度没办法的办法。

我觉得链的主要矛盾还是创新性的应用太缺乏了。没有新的应用,那就只有场内资金在哪里打游击,玩MEME。但这些资金都不持久,也很难形成强大的动力。

Letture associate

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The article describes how the valuation logic for major Chinese AI model companies has undergone three dramatic shifts between 2022 and 2026, driven by capital's changing priorities. The first phase (around 2022) was **technology-driven valuation**, where funding was based on model performance and benchmark scores. This logic was disrupted when DeepSeek's R1 model demonstrated that comparable capabilities could be achieved at a fraction of the cost, challenging the notion of technical superiority as an unassailable moat. The second phase shifted to **IPO window-driven valuation**. Following favorable listing conditions in Hong Kong, capital flowed to companies like Zhipu and MiniMax with the clearest path to a public listing. However, this focus on liquidity over fundamentals became apparent as their Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) lagged far behind international peers like Anthropic. The third and current phase is **national strategy-driven valuation**. This shift was marked by the state-backed "Big Fund" leading a major investment in DeepSeek, signaling that leading domestic AI models are now viewed as strategic national assets comparable to semiconductor manufacturing. This new logic, combined with soaring US valuation benchmarks (e.g., OpenAI at $850B), propelled the combined valuation of China's top AI firms ("The Four Dragons"/"Five Strong") past 1 trillion RMB. The article presents a "pricing leap model": each shift is triggered by a key event that invalidates the old logic, leading to rapid capital reallocation under a new narrative before its flaws (particularly the gap in fundamental ARR metrics) become evident. It concludes that the next major test for these valuations will be a return to scrutinizing core business fundamentals, specifically ARR growth, suggesting a fourth pricing shift is imminent.

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389 Totale visualizzazioniPubblicato il 2024.12.12Aggiornato il 2025.03.21

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