Ожидается, что председатель ФРС Джером Пауэлл подготовит почву для снижения процентной ставки в сентябре

cryptonews.ruPubblicato 2024-08-22Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-08-22

  • Джером Пауэлл готовится к снижению процентной ставки на 25 базисных пунктов на сентябрьском заседании ФРС
  • Ожидается, что председатель ФРС также подаст сигнал об осторожном подходе к дальнейшему снижению ставок.
  • Традиционные Рынки пребывают в состоянии Rally , но Bitcoin продолжает испытывать трудности

Спустя более чем два с половиной года после начала исторического цикла ужесточения денежно-кредитной политики председатель Федеральной резервной системы США Джером Пауэлл, как ожидается, подаст сигнал о том, что центральный банк вскоре начнет смягчать Политика.

Программная речь Пауэлла на экономическом симпозиуме Федерального резервного банка Канзас-Сити в Джексон-Хоуле запланирована на пятницу в 10:00 по восточному времени, и предыдущие председатели ФРС, включая Пауэлла, часто использовали этот форум, чтобы предупредить о важных изменениях в Политика центрального банка.

Как это часто бывает, Рынки значительно опередили ФРС, и трейдеры несколько недель назад заложили в цены 100% вероятность снижения ставки как минимум на 25 базисных пунктов на сентябрьском заседании банка. Вчерашняя публикация протокола FOMC с июльского заседания ФРС по Политика также, вероятно, сгладила часть завтрашнего грома, заявив, что «подавляющее большинство» участников посчитали снижение ставки в сентябре, вероятно, целесообразным.

Помимо прогноза снижения ставок в сентябре, большинство ожидает, что Пауэлл обозначит осторожный подход к смягчению Политика, то есть даст понять, что ФРС сократит ставку всего на 25 базисных пунктов на своем сентябрьском заседании, и посоветует Рынки не ожидать непрерывной серии снижений ставок на будущих заседаниях.

Традиционные Рынки растут, в то время как Bitcoin слабеет

Несмотря на значительное падение с середины июля до начала августа, фондовые Рынки США в основном находились в бычьем режиме в преддверии предстоящего цикла смягчения. S&P 500 находится всего на 1% ниже своего рекордного максимума, достигнутого в начале июля, а Nasdaq — BIT более чем на 4% ниже своего пика. Золото также росло, достигнув рекордного максимума в $2566 в начале этой недели.

Настроение на Рынки BOND также хорошее: вчера доходность 10-летних казначейских облигаций США упала до многолетнего минимума в 3,77%.

Однако Bitcoin (BTC) не смог выбраться из своей собственной колеи. Хотя он и неплохо восстановился после паники в начале августа, которая ненадолго опустила цены ниже $50 000, Bitcoin при своих текущих $60 800 намного ниже исторического максимума в $73 500, достигнутого еще в марте.

Крупнейшая в мире Криптo, по-видимому, игнорирует и другие позитивные катализаторы, включая растущий институциональный интерес и продолжающийся приток средств в спотовые ETF. На этой неделе Bitcoin также получил потенциально хорошие новости на регулирующем фронте: ABC News сообщил, что дружественный к криптовалютам Роберт Кеннеди-младший может выйти из президентской гонки в пятницу и поддержать дружественного к криптовалютам кандидата от Республиканской партии Дональда Трампа. Со стороны демократов высокопоставленный представитель предвыборной кампании Камалы Харрис предположил, что администрация Харрис будет гораздо более дружелюбной к Криптo, чем режим Байдена.

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