US Stocks and Gold Rise Together, Bitcoin Rebound Absent, Have Bottom Signals Appeared?
While traditional assets like U.S. stocks and gold have rebounded strongly, Bitcoin continues to consolidate without following the uptrend. Since hitting an all-time high near $126,000 in October last year, Bitcoin has remained in a corrective phase, trading between $62,000 and $66,000 over the past month. Although U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen renewed net inflows recently—with the past week marking the best performance since mid-April—this buying pressure has been insufficient to counter persistent selling from miners and crypto companies. For instance, miner-linked wallets have seen their BTC balance drop by about 72% since late 2021.
Some long-term indicators are showing early signs of a potential bottom. Metrics such as Reserve Risk, BTC price relative to its 2-year moving average, and the AHR999 index have entered historically oversold territory, suggesting improved long-term value. However, key indicators like MVRV Ratio, NUPL, and the Fear & Greed Index have not yet reached the extreme levels typically seen at major cycle lows. Furthermore, over 53% of Bitcoin supply remains in profit, and stablecoin liquidity is still contracting, indicating the market may need more time for a full capitulation phase.
In summary, while select bottom signals are emerging, Bitcoin lacks the broad-based confirmation needed to declare a definitive cycle low. A sustained recovery will likely depend on continued ETF inflows, a reduction in structural selling pressure, and further deterioration in key on-chain metrics toward historical extremes.
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