Original|Odaily Planet Daily(@OdailyChina)
Author|Wenser(@wenser 2010 )
In April this year, Trump initiated the first "tariff trade war," causing a flash crash in the crypto market. In "The Chaotic Era of Crypto Begins: Listen to These 13 Reference Suggestions," I systematically wrote about the subsequent market trends and coping methods. Most of the content has already come true, including TACO trading, the stablecoin boom, the wealth management boom, timely stop-loss, the rebound of old AI coins, and more.
Now, as we approach the end of 2025, the crypto market has once again fallen into a stalemate of fluctuation between "$85,000 and $90,000." As I mentioned earlier in "If This Continues, No One Will Really Trade Crypto Anymore," the number of active investors in the market is visibly decreasing, and "new retail investors" are not flooding in as they did in previous years.
In light of this, as a four-year "veteran retail investor" who has survived bull and bear markets, I still want to try to answer that eternal question from my perspective—"What should we do now?"(Odaily Note: The following content is for learning and communication purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please DYOR for all trading operations).
On the Protracted War in the Crypto Market: Dual Mastery of Crypto and Stocks Has Become Inevitable
In October last year, before Trump won the U.S. election and DAT became a phenomenal development path in the industry, we detailed the list of the top 25 publicly traded companies by BTC holdings in the article "A Quick Look at the Top 25 Public Companies by BTC Holdings, Searching for the Secret to Becoming a God through 'Dual Mastery of Crypto and Stocks'."
One year later, looking back today, some publicly traded companies have experienced significant rises and falls in stock prices and market capitalization, such as the leading BTC treasury company Strategy (MicroStrategy) and Japan's "first BTC treasury stock" Metaplanet; some listed crypto mining companies have also transformed vigorously, seeking a second business curve, such as Riot, Hut8, CleanSpark, etc.; while companies like Meitu chose to sell off their holdings in time, locking in profits from their BTC reserves in advance.
If in the past, publicly traded companies chose "dual mastery of crypto and stocks" as a means to diversify risks, resist inflation, and tell new stories to the capital market, then at the end of 2025, on the eve of 2026, for retail and individual investors, dual mastery has gradually become a "required course in investment."
Delving into the reasons, I believe there are three points:
First, the continued rise of the U.S. stock market and the AI bubble have attracted massive liquidity. For capital, funds, and resources that prioritize efficiency, the U.S. stock market and even global stock markets are the investment stages with the deepest depth, largest capacity, and highest efficiency;
Second, the development of stock tokenization platforms, stablecoins, and the PayFi sector has further bridged the gap between TradFi and DeFi. Crypto-native groups proficient in on-chain investment and trading now have more opportunities, channels, and lower thresholds to access high-quality assets and investment targets globally. The entry and exit of funds have also become more convenient, further compressing the market space for altcoins;
Third, narratives like BTC treasury, ETH treasury, SOL treasury, and other DAT narratives have failed. Beyond existing leading companies, whether crypto concept stocks including Circle and Bullish can gain a firm foothold in the capital market depends not only on Wall Street capital institutions but, most importantly, on whether the stock exchanges applying for stock tokenization trading (such as Nasdaq), existing individual investors in the stock market, and retail investors entering the crypto market can provide corresponding buying support, pushing the crypto sector to still possess a certain "dream valuation" expectation after the AI sector. Of course, this does not mean buying crypto concept stocks now; on the contrary, choosing the right time to enter the market and combining it with positive news to take profits from rebounds is a better choice.
Therefore, either enter the stock market through brokerage channels, leveraging the advantages of "News Trading" experience accumulated from past crypto trading and cognitive advantages like the ripple-effect thinking path mentioned in our article "Analysis of the Four-Tier Ripple Effects of CZ's Pardon by Trump" to reversely harvest the stock market; or leverage the leverage advantages of stock tokenization platforms, such as MSX.com (invitation code self-service), xStocks, ONDO Global Market, etc., adopting low-leverage long/short strategies for trading attempts, exploring trading routes that suit your risk preference and tolerance, and chasing your own "second spring" in the stock market.
If the crypto circle is in a bear market, then make money in the stock market; if the stock market cools down, then dig for gold in the crypto circle.
For crypto people roaming among various market hotspots, playing whatever is hot, whatever is the trend, whatever has Meme attributes is both a常规操作 (routine operation) and a required course.
Impact of Medium-to-Long-Term Tense Macro-Political Situation: Precious Metals May Continue to Rise
Since Trump took office this year, the political and economic situation in various regions of the world has become increasingly complex, with local hot and cold wars alternating. The global macro environment may remain tense for the next 5-10 years.
Not to mention others, after the Russia-Ukraine war, conflicts like Israel-Hamas, U.S.-Venezuela disputes, and the cooling of relations in East Asia have all had varying degrees, speeds, and depths of impact on the global economic situation. In the past, BTC was often regarded as a safe-haven asset, but after BTC spot ETFs entered the U.S. stock system, mainstream coins in the crypto market have also inevitably become "assets incorporated into U.S. stocks." Against this backdrop, we can somewhat boldly judge: precious metals including gold, silver, palladium, platinum, etc., may continue to rise; non-ferrous metals like copper, lithium, lead, etc., as important strategic resources, may also see some rise.
Furthermore, considering the upcoming IPOs of giants in commercial aerospace and artificial intelligence like SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic next year, and the further rise in chip resource prices of tech giants like NVIDIA, Google, Amazon, etc., related listed companies in their upstream supply chains and raw material suppliers will all become part of the "rising chain."
The recent rise in sectors like semiconductors, satellite aerospace, etc., in the A-share market has already shown signs; the development of the robot industry and the IPOs of related leading companies will also indirectly promote further exploration of mineral resources and the energy industry and more旺盛 (robust) demand.
In short, although domestic gold mines are frequently discovered, with news of特大 (extra-large) gold mines popping up from time to time, in the medium to long term, precious metals like gold and mineral resources like non-ferrous metals remain the "hard currency" in resource circulation.
For crypto people, like BTC, either DCA (Dollar-Cost Average) is enough, or you can use tokenized assets for layout, either with low leverage or by directly buying corresponding token targets.
Neutral Wealth Management Solutions Remain a Market Necessity: Staking Yields, Lending Yields, and DCA Yields Go Hand in Hand
For a crypto market that is fluctuating downward, compared to "offensive strategies" like high-leverage long or short positions, seeking more neutral wealth management solutions may be a more稳妥 (steady) "defensive strategy."
In this regard, I believe that for crypto people other than small散 (retail investors) like me with only 10 U, a defensive strategy of "staking + lending + DCA" can be adopted to survive the current bear market and be prepared to mobilize funds at any time to welcome the next狂暴 (fierce) bull market after institutions and traditional financial market investors enter.
Staking yields: Beyond exchange staking for mainstream coins, staking yields from ETH and SOL ecological applications can be chosen opportunistically. Of course, as with the bad debts and chain liquidations caused by a series of DeFi暴雷 (thunderstorm/implosion) events like the "10·11 Great Crash," sufficient homework needs to be done when selecting specific projects and platforms to avoid unnecessary principal losses;
Lending yields: As the most stable cornerstone of the DeFi field, although recent price fluctuations of project tokens were caused by interest disputes between DAO and Labs, Aave remains the largest lending protocol on Ethereum and even the entire crypto market. The platform successfully withstood the test of extreme black swan events during the "10·11 Great Crash," operating normally during the liquidation wave and earning considerable income. Additionally, Kamino on the Solana ecosystem operates relatively stably and can be considered for reference.
DCA yields: Beyond mainstream coins like BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, etc., CEXs including Binance, OKX, Bybit, Bitget, etc., will不定期 (irregularly) open wealth management activities. Previous activities like Plasma (XPL)'s 2.5 billion deposit event, USDC deposit subsidy events, etc., have benefited many. Recently, the USD1 deposit event opened by Binance even offered an annualized rate of up to about 20%, which is quite astonishing; OKX's recent NIGHT token wealth management event also made many people赚的盆满钵满 (earn pots full and bowls full). The colder the market, the more exchange activities for拉新促活 (user acquisition and activation) and subsidies resemble the "crypto project airdrop interactions" of the past, making them one of the few must-participate high-yield investment opportunities in the circle. Most importantly, most CEXs have certain capital backing capabilities,能够最大程度上保障自身资金不会不翼而飞 (can to the greatest extent ensure that your funds won't disappear without a trace) in case of emergencies or unexpected security incidents.
In short, the premise of staying at the table is to ensure that you have certain off-field money-making capabilities while also building more anti-fragile diversified income pipelines on-field, not placing all hopes of returns and收益 (gains) on high-risk assets.
Prediction Markets Are More Worth Betting On: Polymarket's Token Launch Will Be the Next Milestone Event
Based on recent messages such as the various functions launched by Kalshi, the formation of a prediction market alliance with platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood, and the plan to hold the first prediction market conference in March next year, prediction markets are becoming an important force besides cryptocurrencies, AI sector, and internet tech giants that "can sit at the table and eat."
Combined with the excellent timing benefits of next year's World Cup, U.S. midterm elections, and a series of sports events, the monthly trading volume of prediction markets is expected to increase 10-fold next month (Odaily Planet Daily Note: The latest news shows that the trading volume of prediction markets in November exceeded $13 billion, more than three times the trading volume during the peak of the 2024 election) to nearly $100 billion.
Similar to how the NFT boom boosted a large number of NFT scanning tools, Mint websites and trading platforms, and how工具网站 (tool websites) like Hyperbot and HyperInsight saw a wave of traffic peaks after the rise of on-chain Perp DEXs like Hyperliquid, beyond the "selling shovels" idea to make "prediction market copy-trading tools" or "AI Agent prediction market betting agents," ordinary players should most seize two ideas:
First, "buy early," i.e., bet on the option with a higher probability of the event, and sell the corresponding chips after the probability rises to lock in profits. Of course, this also requires certain requirements for the investor's personal cognition and grasp of market sentiment, news, etc.;
Second, "follow the big brother," i.e., screen high-quality betting investors, conduct cross-validation and AB Test attempts, and build your own copy-trading system and betting decision logic system. Of course, this also carries certain risks, so the allocation of positions and the choice of selling timing still need to be琢磨 (pondered) and practiced after躬身入局 (personally entering the game).
Compared to the above two ideas, "sweeping the尾盘 (end of the market)" seems more稳妥 (steady), but it is ultimately a choice of "picking up coins in front of a road roller," easily wiped out by dark horse upset events. I do not recommend allocating too much capital to participate, and even more不建议 (do not recommend) ALL IN gambling like some whales, because after all, if whales lose, they can just delete their accounts and start over; as ordinary people, we don't have that many ALL IN trial-and-error opportunities.
Conclusion: AI Will Become a Personal Assistant, the x402 Protocol's Future Is More Than This
Not long ago, Solana officially launched the @x402 account, openly placing the development of the x402 protocol in its own ecosystem at a higher priority. As the issuance of stablecoins continues to grow at a monthly rate of tens of billions, PayFi, stablecoins, and the AI payment concept will still be one of next year's crypto themes.
At that time, like the "AI OS" recently launched by Douban and ZTE Mobile Phones, it will penetrate all aspects of life, work, politics, and economy in a deeper form, and its combination with cryptocurrency, with the x402 protocol at the forefront. Combined with messages like Trip.com's overseas version opening stablecoin payment windows in some Southeast Asian regions, the AI payment concept may give birth to another ten-billion-level token.
2026, survive, see you next year.
Recommended Reading:
"2025 Investment Questionnaire: Nearly 60% of People Are Profitable Overall, Over 60% Are Seasoned Veterans in the Market"
"2025 Meme Coin 'From夯 (solid) to拉 (pull)' Ranking List"
"New Theory on Crypto Four-Year Cycle: I Asked Seven Senior Practitioners What Stage It Is Now"
