融资数据跌至冰点，加密市场和比特币脱节了？

Odaily星球日报Pubblicato 2024-03-05Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-03-05

Introduzione

比特币独美，不给市场一点机会。

近日，比特币的涨势可谓引爆了加密社区的 FOMO 点，其价格在时隔 829 天再次突破 6 万美元后仍无回调迹象，持续上涨至 68, 000 美元。据 TradingView 数据，截至撰稿时，比特币价格仍维持在 66, 000 美元上方。

高达 68, 000 美元的比特币，仅需再上涨 1.2% 即可创下 2021 年以来的历史新高。比特币的强势上涨让社区无限 FOMO，据 Alternative 数据显示，恐慌与贪婪指数也在上涨，自 2021 年 2 月以来首次达到 90 ，市场已经陷入极度贪婪情绪。

已公布融资金额跌至 2020 年低点

在比特币价格上涨时关注风险投资也许是很多人在牛市中选择自己标的的方法之一，他们通常被视为市场领导者。

实际上，风投机构一直以来也确实跟随着比特币的价格上涨而出手更多的项目，尤其是前两轮牛市期间，BTC 价格与风投机构的筹款金额呈现出明显的正相关性。

融资数据跌至冰点，加密市场和比特币脱节了？

BTC 与筹款金额图表，图源：@DefiIgnas

然而有趣的是，纵使 BTC 已经从 2022 年的低点回升，甚至高于 2018 年牛市高峰期，但融资筹款金额却在不断下降，恢复至 2020 年之前的水平。

据社区成员统计， 2024 年 2 月公布的加密筹款总资金达 7.268 亿美元，来自 134 家公司以及 497 位独立投资者。在这些融资项目中，DeFi 在投资方面占比最高，共有 31 项投资，占筹集总额的 23.1% 。基础设施在资金投入方面表现最佳，总共吸引了 2.944 亿美元的投资，占总筹集资金的 40.5% 。

如此火热的市场下，上个月公布出的融资金额仅为 4.86 亿美元，虽然比 1 月增加了 20.4% ，但比去年 2 月减少了 28.7% 。

融资数据跌至冰点，加密市场和比特币脱节了？

图源：@DS_Blockchain

为什么会这样？

从之前两次牛市发展来看，虽然有许多亚洲风险投资公司看重熊市的机会，偏好在熊市周期出手，但从整体表现来看，风险投资公司确实更倾向于根据市场趋势进行投资。

如今投资金额与比特币上涨出现明显的背向发展，究其原因还是本轮牛市是由比特币 ETF 引发的，一个属于比特币的牛市。

ETF 资金打乱项目方宣发节奏

如果从风投投资逻辑上看，自从踏空铭文市场后，风险投资和私募股权投资公司并不研究和投资于未来现金流潜力巨大的强劲基本面，而只是跟随趋势和 FOMO 的投资方式寻找未来的融资轮次。

对团队来说，项目在熊市期间筹集资金后，并不会立刻公布融资情况。因此，如果仅从数据上看，它可能不是最新的。正常情况下，项目方会选择一个对他们来说更有意义的时候发布公告。

那么，什么是更有意义的时候？

自去年开始，比特币 ETF 的获批与否一直是加密市场的催化剂，尤其是 1 月 11 日以来，ETF 获批无疑让比特币及加密货币进入了历史新起点。作为加密货币全球市场上最令人期待的进展，现货比特币 ETF 这个产品的一举一动都极度控制着这本就脆弱的市场。

对于一个项目来说，宣发有一定的流程，如今，ETF 获批已过去两个月，比特币的价格似乎完全不给市场反应机会。

据 Tradingview，早在去年 9 月下旬开始，比特币价格曲线就呈上升趋势，此时公布的融资金额还在预期之内，但比特币开始上涨后，融资金额却没有出现明显变化，甚至到了 1 月，ETF 的通过后也仍然没有太大改善。甚至可以说，自 1 月以来，比特币上涨趋势更加猛烈，而融资金额却开始不升反降。

融资数据跌至冰点，加密市场和比特币脱节了？

无论是风投踏空还是项目宣发滞后，可以说比特币 ETF 确实打乱了所有参与者的步伐。对项目方来说，这个「更有意义的时候」好像无法准确把握。

ETF 资金没有流入加密行业？

2 月 29 日比特币现货 ETF 单日交易量达 76.9 亿美元，创下发布以来的新历史记录，随后几天总体也都保持在 40 亿-50 亿的水平。比特币现货 ETF 的成交量不到两周内强势流入，使得比特币价格逼近历史新高。

从资金盘上看，整个加密市场的资金流无疑是增加了的。比特币 ETF 的通过不仅仅是在加密行业掀起波澜，传统老钱的入场也在助力比特币价格飙升，但是大部分的资金实际上只是流向了比特币。

据 coinmarket 数据，目前加密货币总市值达 2.38 兆， 24 小时涨幅 2.79% 。其中，比特币价格 66, 557 美元， 24 小时涨幅 1.46% ，市值达 1.3 兆，市占率超过整个加密总市值一半，达 51.17% 。

融资数据跌至冰点，加密市场和比特币脱节了？

比特币价格一直涨，但山寨币价格纹丝不动甚至还在下跌。很多观点认为，流入比特币现货 ETF 的资金并不会流向场内的山寨币，而是会兑现为美元，因此导致这一轮不会有山寨币牛市。

相关阅读：《比特币马上新高，为什么我却没赚到钱？》

在如此吸金的情况下，其余加密市场很难突出重围。纵使坎昆升级的利好也不足以把资金吸引到以太坊生态，目前可以与这轮周期相提并论的还是 meme 币的拉盘，Solana 生态也确实因为 meme 引来了不少流量。但放眼整个加密市场，牛市冒出的加密项目如雨后春笋，又有多少能从比特币的资金流中分得一杯羹呢？

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