SignalPlus宏观分析(20240215)：CPI数据“符合”预期

Odaily星球日报Pubblicato 2024-02-15Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-02-15

Introduzione

昨天的市场反弹最初由固定收益市场所引领，在地缘政治风险事件（俄罗斯新的太空核武能力）和温和经济数据的推动下，周二CPI熊平走势的回撤进一步扩大为大幅反弹。

年底的 BTC 和 ETH 的期货升水/溢价纷纷冲回 11% + 。

卖 6 月底 8 万的 BTC 的看涨期权，现在年化收入（币本位）是 13.6% ，但是看这个涨势，我都不敢卖……

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240215)：CPI数据“符合”预期

昨天的市场反弹最初由固定收益市场所引领，在地缘政治风险事件（俄罗斯新的太空核武能力）和温和经济数据的推动下，周二 CPI 熊平走势的回撤进一步扩大为大幅反弹。美国 PPI 修正值整体下修至 -0.2% ，核心 PPI 下修至 -0.1% ，使得整体年化率分别降至 1% 和 1.8% ，在昨天令市场失望的 CPI 数据后，这个数据结果令人松了口气。此外，英国 CPI 也大幅低于预期（环比 -0.6% vs 预期的 -0.3% ），英国央行 Bailey 评论称，“通胀放缓将进一步影响薪资谈判”，CPI 结果也使得市场对固定收益的需求异常强劲（30 年期德国公债发行的投标倍数为 2.27 x；Bristol Myers 规模 130 亿的债券供应吸引了 850 亿的资金），为债券反弹增添了动力。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240215)：CPI数据“符合”预期

此外，美联储 Goolsbee 意外发表了相当直接和鸽派的评论，称市场“不应因一个月的 CPI 数据而激动”，且“只是一个月的数据，不是几个月”，他还表示，美联储的通胀目标是基于 PCE 而非 CPI，并且“通胀率已经连续 6 到 7 个月往目标接近”，这种明确的鸽派态度与周二 Powell 与立法机构的闭门会议形成了鲜明对比，Powell 在会议上表示，低收入工作者的工资增长一直高于通胀，“而现在对于大多数工作者来说来说越来越是如此”，针对超出预期的 CPI，Powell 重申通胀数据“符合他们先前的预期”，美联储将依赖即将发布的 PCE 报告来提供“更多情报”，同时他拒绝给出任何关于美联储何时降息的线索。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240215)：CPI数据“符合”预期

股市也收复了前一日跌幅的 60-70% ，主要受企业股票回购计划的激励，最近宣布回购的公司包括 Las Vegas Sands、Ford、GM、RTX、Airbnb，当然还有 Uber 和 Meta；Uber 在首度实现全年盈利后，宣布 70 亿美元的股票回购计划，而 Meta 早些时候宣布增加 500 亿美元股票回购，并将首度发放股息。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240215)：CPI数据“符合”预期

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