长推:聊聊近期加密市场

MarsBitPubblicato 2023-07-05Pubblicato ultima volta 2023-07-05

Introduzione

美国M2拐点大概率显现,M2印钞机开启,借贷协议成了本月最靓的仔。

注:本文来自@Rocky_Bitcoin 推特,其是加密KOL,原推文内容由MarsBit整理如下:
最近市场,资金面相对比较宽裕!
一来美国M2拐点大概率显现,M2印钞机开启,必然要打通供应链关系,美国财政部长耶伦将来中国访华,4天时间(比较罕见),这有望疏通管道,为未来货币宽松,压缩通胀铺平道路。
二来,如👇图,借贷协议成了本月最靓的仔。整体增长有目共睹,说明市场整体风险偏好在提高,大家愿意去提高杠杆率,来获得对应更高的回报率。

资金面


三来,#LSDFI 赛道,LST代币释放的流动性,这个在以往文章讲过,有望释放400亿美金的体量,这无疑给市场带来了一定的额外流动性资金。
四来,叠加最近美国华尔街机构的动作频频,市场在朦胧中苏醒,混沌中开辟方向,模糊中越发清晰。场外资金蠢蠢欲动,稳定币净流入数据,一直持续稳定走高。
未来,我们大概率会走向越来越美好的道路!

Letture associate

The Rally That Wasn't

The article analyzes Bitcoin's sharp decline amid a shift in macroeconomic expectations, with strong US job data leading markets to price out Fed rate cuts. Bitcoin fell 13% to around $67,000, triggering significant outflows from US spot ETFs and indicating institutional de-risking. On-chain data confirms a bearish structure. Price has dropped back into the "bear market range," with the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis falling below a key mean level—a pattern last seen in early 2022. The profitability bias has collapsed, with loss realization now dominating, mirroring a panic wave from February. Recent buyers who accumulated near the $82k top are under pressure, and loss realization is accelerating across both short-term and long-term holder cohorts. Off-chain, the rally failed at the aggregate US ETF cost basis near $83k, turning it into resistance. Spot market demand has deteriorated sharply, with sellers dominating order books. While a major long liquidation event cleared over $400M in leverage, spot buyers have not returned to absorb supply. Options markets show sustained demand for downside protection (elevated put premiums) but not panic, with volatility premiums near three-month highs. The conclusion is that the market remains fragile, with overhead supply from trapped ETF investors, weak spot demand, and accelerating losses. Without a return of spot buying and a reclaim of key cost bases, Bitcoin is vulnerable to further downside within the prevailing bear market structure.

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The Rally That Wasn't

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