美股已回血，比特币还差一半

比推Pubblicato 2023-05-29Pubblicato ultima volta 2023-05-29

Introduzione

在这个美股加息周期的尾声，美股已经几乎要完全收复美联储加息这一年来所失去的失地，成功回血。其中，纳斯达克指数已经突破2022.3.17的高度（14298 > 14118），标普500还差一点点（4205 接近 4411）。

隔夜比特币仍在26.5k-27k之间踟蹰。美众议院议长麦卡锡说，现在还不能就解决美债危机和拜登总统达成协议。不过，他又说，相信在6月5日前应该一定行。（关于“6月5日”，请参阅刘教链2023.5.27文章《美债死期推迟》）

在这个美股加息周期的尾声，美股已经几乎要完全收复美联储加息这一年来所失去的失地，成功回血。其中，纳斯达克指数已经突破2022.3.17的高度（14298 > 14118），标普500还差一点点（4205 接近 4411）。（2022.3.17是美联储加息靴子落地之日，参阅刘教链2022.3.17文章《美联储加息落地，比特币先跌后涨》）

图：纳斯达克指数

图：标普500指数

而比特币呢，还差得远。27k，距离40k，再涨个50%差不多能够得到。

图：比特币

虽然比特币在进入2023年以后奋勇争先，从17-18k的绝望之谷旱地拔葱，一骑绝尘，站上了27-30k的高地。但是，无可奈何花落去，2022年LUNA/UST的暴雷和FTX的暴雷实在是太伤了。灰飞烟灭的资金难再来，伤痛的记忆一时难抚平，何日再唱“似曾相识燕归来”，犹未可知。

这是个好事。

显然，比特币和美股脱钩，复又与黄金的相关性增强，显示出比特币绝非美股的影子资产，而是有自己的独特性格的。

图：比特币与黄金和美股的相关性（30天皮尔森系数）

从30天皮尔森系数走势图看，自进入5月份以来，比特币和美股的相关系数就一路走低，由正转负，进入了负相关的区间。有趣的是，和黄金的相关性开始也是和美股一样下降，但是到了下半月又开始上升，继续走高了。

在这个短周期上，美股跌，比特币跌，美股涨回血了，比特币还差一半，是不是有点儿“比特币就像美股的山寨币”的感觉？但是，和真正的山寨币不同，比特币总是会在一次次的价格冲击中，突破美股的约束和人们的想象，向下一个里程碑，进发。

此谓之积累的好时光。

不知晦朔的朝菌、不知春秋的蟪蛄，与以五百岁为春的冥灵、以八千岁为秋的大椿，看到的世界，是全然不同的。

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