新一轮抛售潮呼啸而来,人人自危,美国小银行“随时可能倒闭”?

华尔街见闻Pubblicato 2023-05-05Pubblicato ultima volta 2023-05-05

Introduzione

由于信心匮乏,美国小银行正被“负反馈”吞噬:出现在负面新闻中,导致股价下跌,引发更多媒体新闻和讨论,并进而导致储户挤兑......

银行业的抛售潮远未结束,在投资者的脆弱信心之下,另一场风暴也许还在酝酿之中。

美东时间周四,加拿大第二大银行多伦多道明银行公布,同第一地平线银行(FHN)的并购协议终止;在西太平洋合众银行(PACW)确认周三传出的考虑出售等选择消息后,阿莱恩斯西部银行(WAL)也传出类似出售考虑的消息,导致地区性银行的股价大跌。

银行业指标KBW银行指数一度跌近6%,收盘跌3.8%;地区银行指数KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index盘中一度跌超7%,收盘跌3.5%;地区银行股ETF SPDR标普地区银行ETF 早盘曾跌超9%,收跌近5.5%,创下2020年10月以来的最低水平。

从5月1日摩根大通宣布收购第一共和银行的所有存款以及“几乎所有”资产后,银行股本周遭遇了大规模抛售。更大的担忧是,银行倒闭将触发人们的信心危机,从而造成一种影响更广泛经济的金融传染。银行家们和监管机构都试图让投资者相信,危机最糟糕的时候已经过去,但收效甚微。

被“负反馈”吞噬的小银行

周四的抛售集中在西太平洋合众银行和阿莱恩斯西部银行这两家规模较小的地区性银行身上。

前者所传出的消息本不该令市场意外——西太平洋合众银行此前已经在财报中表示将27亿美元的贷款组合重新归类为待售,表明其正在为交易做准备。但在信心已经十分脆弱的银行业,投资者已经“草木皆兵”,害怕稍不留神就会继续触发另一场危机。

该行面临的一个问题是,尽管找到买家可能会保护客户存款,但对股东来说,这未必是最佳解决方案。银行的出售价格在一定程度上反映了其资产的当前市场价格,而和其他银行一样,西太平洋合众银行的账面上贷款的市场价值已经大幅下降。

任何收购西太平洋合众银行的银行都必须对这些贷款进行减记,这压低了买家愿意支付的价格。去年年底,其贷款的账面价值和公允价值之间的差额达到17.8亿美元。

有分析认为,西太平洋合众银行之所以成为目标,是因为来自风险资本和科技客户的大额无保险存款高度集中,这类客户曾引发了硅谷银行和第一共和银行的挤兑。瑞银分析师估计,西太平洋合众银行约23%的存款来自风险投资和科技领域。

更糟糕的是,信心匮乏中,美国银行业正面临一场负面的反馈循环:出现在负面新闻中,导致股价下跌,引发更多媒体新闻和讨论,这反过来引发储户挤兑。以第一共和银行为例,4月24日周一,第一共和银行表示存款总额为1027亿美元,同比仅下降了3.7%;但到4月28日,其存款已降至926亿美元。短短一周时间,该行就流失了100亿美元的存款,约占其存款总额的10%。

而市场担心,西太平洋合众银行可能会重蹈第一共和银行的覆辙。源源不断的消息传出将迫使储户做出反应,他们对银行的信心一旦破碎,就很难恢复。虽然该行表示潜在合作已经在进行中,但被市场牢牢盯住、已经被推至风口浪尖的银行业显然处于非常不利的地位。

摩根大通预计,由于监管和经济的不确定性等因素,银行股将继续承压。木头姐凯西·伍德也在周三对媒体表示,银行业的客户资金仍在不停地流失,限制了银行未来发放贷款的能力,“我们已经进入了信贷紧缩的早期阶段,这将比大多数人预期的要严重得多”。

Letture associate

E Fund "Quits Drinking"

"Yi Fang Da 'Gives Up Alcohol'" - Summary The article analyzes the recent portfolio adjustments of star fund manager Zhang Kun, focusing on his flagship funds, the Yi Fang Da Blue Chip Select and Yi Fang Da Quality Select. The key trend highlighted is a significant and ongoing reduction in exposure to the consumer sector, particularly liquor (baijiu) stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, which were once core holdings. This shift is driven by several factors: a downturn in the consumer sector's business cycle post-pandemic, with slowing earnings growth for major players; a change in consumer behavior towards value over premium brands; and high channel inventory pressures, especially in the liquor industry. These fundamentals have led to a prolonged phase of valuation contraction for consumer stocks. Concurrently, market capital has rotated aggressively towards the high-growth technology sector, especially AI-related chains, which have dominated fund inflows. This style shift has further diminished the attractiveness of traditional consumer "core assets" for many funds. As a result, Zhang Kun's funds have drastically cut their consumer stock allocations. For example, the Blue Chip Select's baijiu holding proportion has fallen from over 40% to around 20%, and its overall top 10 holdings concentration dropped sharply. This mirrors a broader trend in the active equity fund industry, where allocations to consumer staples have plummeted to multi-year lows while technology holdings have surged. The article concludes that while the consumer sector's valuations are now at historical lows, offering some margin of safety, the fundamental outlook remains challenging due to weak macro consumption recovery and intense internal competition. Therefore, the sector is likely to see only sporadic rebounds rather than a sustained recovery, continuing to weigh on the performance of funds still heavily invested in it. Zhang Kun's timely reduction of Korean semiconductor holdings in his Asia Select fund amid a market crash is also noted as a contrast to his domestic strategy.

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E Fund "Quits Drinking"

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Tosda, an industrial robotics firm, is making its second attempt at a Hong Kong listing shortly after its first application lapsed. The company has undergone a significant strategic shift, pivoting away from its lower-margin intelligent energy and environmental management system (IEEMS) business to focus on core robotics and machinery. This "revenue-reduction, profit-growth" strategy saw revenue nearly halve from 2022 to 2025, but resulted in a sharp turnaround to profitability, with a 1147% year-on-year increase in Q1 2026 net profit. This restructuring involved spinning off the IEEMS business, leading to a substantial jump in related-party transactions. Following the departure of a former executive, two newly associated companies are expected to handle up to 548 million RMB worth of IEEMS orders in 2026, with Tosda acting as a platform charging a 3% management fee. While profitability has improved, several financial concerns remain. Accounts receivable collection cycles have lengthened, inventory—particularly for robots—has surged significantly despite falling revenue, and the company faces challenges in overseas market expansion. Notably, overseas business currently has a lower gross margin than domestic operations. The company was also recently reprimanded by regulators for accounting inaccuracies related to revenue recognition and bad debt provisions. The success of its strategic pivot and its second listing attempt will depend on managing these financial risks, the transparency of its new business model, and the long-term performance of its core robotics segment.

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Before the Second Attempt at Hong Kong IPO, Topstar 'Hands Out' 548 Million in Related-Party Orders

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Is the AI Bull Market in Jeopardy? Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Breaks Below Key Support at 11,200 Points

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