火必周刊（2.13-2.19）

火币资讯Pubblicato 2023-02-20Pubblicato ultima volta 2023-02-20

Introduzione

上周不容错过的新闻速览，本周事件抢先一览。

上周不容错过的新闻如下：

⠀

1. 关键词：火必、BLUR、GFT、IGU、SUDO

火必已于2023年2月15日02:30 (GMT+8)开放BLUR (Blur)现货交易(BLUR/USDT)和网格交易(BLUR/USDT)。

火必已于2023年2月15日20:00 (GMT+8)开放GFT (Gifto)现货交易(GFT/USDT)和网格交易(GFT/USDT)。

火必已于2023年2月17日20:00(GMT+8)开放IGU (IguVerse)现货交易(IGU /USDT)和网格交易(IGU /USDT)。

火必已于2023年2月19日19:00(GMT+8)开放SUDO (Sudoswap)现货交易(SUDO/USDT)和网格交易(SUDO/USDT)。

2. 关键词：美国证券交易委员会、Paxos、Binance

美国证券交易委员会已告知加密货币公司Paxos Trust Co.，计划起诉该公司违反投资者保护法。 据知情人士称，美国SEC的执法人员向Paxos发出了一封名为“韦尔斯通知（Wellsnotice）”的信函，称Paxos发行和上架的数字资产BinanceUSD（BUSD）是一种未注册的证券。

2 月 13 日，Paxos 宣布将结束与 Binance 在品牌稳定币 BUSD 上的合作关系。自 2 月 21 日起，Paxos 将根据纽约金融服务部 (NYDFS) 的指示停止发行新的 BUSD，并与 NYDFS 密切合作。

3.关键词：香港、代币化绿色债券

2月16日香港宣布，在政府绿色债券计划（绿债计划）下成功发售8亿港元的代币化绿色债券（代币化绿色债券）。这是全球首批由政府发行的代币化绿色债券。

4. 关键词：美联储、加快加息步伐

美联储梅斯特表示，通胀出现更多的意外上升将使得美联储的货币政策更加激进；可能需要一年的时间才能看到加息的全面影响；必须提高债务上限，美国不能出现债务违约；需要将峰值利率推高至5%以上才能实现通胀目标；如果情况允许，美联储可以加快加息步伐。

5. 关键词：加拿大证券管理局、收紧运营加密货币交易所的要求

据两位了解该计划的人士透露，本月晚些时候，加拿大证券管理局 (CSA) 将收紧对该国运营的加密货币交易所的要求。CSA 在去年中旬宣布，它要求在加拿大运营的未注册加密交易平台在寻求注册时做出某些合规“承诺”。CSA 拒绝讨论预注册承诺 (PRU)制度的更新，但表示将“在不久的将来公布更多细节”。

6. 关键词：索罗斯基金、增加加密货币投资

比推消息，对冲基金巨头乔治·索罗斯 (George Soros) 的投资工具索罗斯基金管理公司 (Soros Fund Management) 似乎在去年年底之前增加了对一些加密货币公司的投资，尽管交易的性质尚不明朗。根据12 月 31 日向美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 提交的 13F 文件，Soros基金管理公司购买了价值 3960 万美元的加密矿商 Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) 的可转换债券。可转换债券是公司发行的一种长期债务，可在指定时间段后转换为股票。

7. 关键词：NFT Gaming、IPO

数字游戏开发公司NFT Gaming宣布已获准在纳斯达克资本市场上市其普通股，交易代码为NFTG，首次公开发行1,686,747股普通股，定价为每股普通股4.15美元，总收益约为700万美元。

8. 关键词：俄罗斯、区块链使用合法化

俄罗斯杜马议会今日通过了编号为221502-8的法案，即将进入委员会审议阶段。

据了解，该法案于2022年10月提交，旨在让金融市场参与者将他们的业务与区块链平台结合起来。该法案一旦成为法律，将使区块链的使用合法化。

据Bitcoin Magazine表示，俄罗斯政府计划为西伯利亚的比特币矿工提供税收优惠。此外，俄罗斯央行刚刚表示“准备好允许”比特币和加密货币的国际贸易关系。

9. 关键词：FTX、出售部分资产

FTX 已获得法院批准出售部分所投资产与子公司。FTX 清算人于 1 月 18 日提交了一项动议，其中表示一些被投资方表达了回购 FTX 权益的强烈动机，以促进从其他投资者那里筹集更多资金。美国特拉华州破产法院于 2 月 13 日批准了该动议，授权出售或转让与 FTX 的总资产基数相比「相对最低价值」的某些资产。

10. 关键词：Blur、空投

Blur 通过空投提供了 3.6 亿个 BLUR 代币，这些流通供应使该代币的当前市值约为 2.17 亿美元。然而，它在 BLUR 总供应量中所占比例相对较小，一旦所有代币发行，显然总计 30 亿个 BLUR。到目前为止，已经认领了近 2.6 亿个空投代币，约占 72%。BLUR 今天首次上市时曾飙升至每个代币 5.02 美元，但随后大幅下跌。它目前比那个短暂的峰值下跌了 88%。据Dune数据，BLUR 空投的最高申领者获得了超过 320 万个 BLUR 代币，根据 CoinGecko 当前每个代币约 0.60 美元的价格计算，价值约 193万美元。

本周事件提醒：
1.2月21日（周二）Coinbase公布2022年营收；

2.2月23日（周四），美联储公布2月货币政策会议纪要；

3.2月23日（周四），FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯就遏制通胀问题发表讲话；

4.2月23日（周四），美国四季度个人消费支出(PCE)年化季环比修正值；

5.2月24日（周五），克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特和美联储理事杰斐就通胀发表讲话；
6.2月24日（周五），ETHDenver大会将在卡罗拉多举办。

Letture associate

Both Suffer Massive Losses Exceeding $90 Billion, Which Is in Greater Peril: Strategy or Bitmine?

Facing massive paper losses exceeding $90 billion each amidst a sharp market downturn, "Digital Asset Treasury" (DAT) giants Strategy and Bitmine find themselves in a precarious position, but with different underlying risks. Strategy, heavily invested in Bitcoin (BTC), faces significant financial strain. Its strategy relies heavily on debt, including convertible notes and preferred stock (STRC) requiring substantial dividend payments. With its cash reserves dwindling and BTC offering no staking yield for cash flow, Strategy's high leverage makes it vulnerable. A continued price decline could force asset sales to meet obligations, potentially creating a negative feedback loop. Its market value has already fallen sharply. In contrast, Bitmine, an Ethereum (ETH) holder, appears on firmer financial ground. It primarily funds its purchases through equity offerings (like ATM programs), avoiding debt pressure. It also generates income by staking a large portion of its ETH holdings. While not immune to market drops and shareholder dilution concerns, Bitmine maintains more flexibility, recently announcing a new preferred share offering to raise further capital. The core divergence lies in their financing: Bitmine uses equity (investor money), while Strategy uses debt (borrowed money). Consequently, Bitmine currently faces less immediate liquidity pressure than Strategy, which must navigate the dual challenge of servicing debt/dividends and a declining core asset (BTC) price.

marsbit5 min fa

Both Suffer Massive Losses Exceeding $90 Billion, Which Is in Greater Peril: Strategy or Bitmine?

marsbit5 min fa

Both Suffer Losses Exceeding $9 Billion, Which Is More at Risk: Strategy or Bitmine?

As Bitcoin and Ethereum prices drop significantly, two major corporate treasury holders, Strategy and Bitmine, are facing massive unrealized losses—approximately $100 billion and $90 billion, respectively. The article compares their financial health and underlying risks. Bitmine, holding over 5.4 million ETH, relies primarily on equity financing (like ATM offerings) and has substantial cash reserves, alongside staking income from its ETH holdings. It plans a $300 million perpetual preferred stock offering. In contrast, Strategy, holding Bitcoin, is burdened by significant convertible debt and preferred stock dividends, with cash reserves covering only about six months of its annual dividend obligations. Strategy's leverage is higher, and it faces potential liquidity pressure if BTC prices fall further, possibly forcing asset sales. While both companies are under pressure, Bitmine’s financial structure appears more resilient, whereas Strategy’s high leverage makes it more vulnerable to continued market declines.

Odaily星球日报9 min fa

Both Suffer Losses Exceeding $9 Billion, Which Is More at Risk: Strategy or Bitmine?

Odaily星球日报9 min fa

Where the AI Bubble Really Is: Which Layer of Players Are Naked

AI Bubble: Where It Really Is and Who's Swimming Naked This analysis dissects the AI industry not as a single entity but as a five-layer pyramid, arguing that bubbles are concentrated in specific tiers, not uniformly distributed. **Key Distinction from the 2000 Dot-com Bubble:** Unlike 2000, where companies had stock prices before revenue, today's leading AI players have massive, contract-backed revenue driving their valuations. Core infrastructure demand is real, with every GPU running at full capacity for paying customers. **The Five-Layer Pyramid & Bubble Assessment:** * **L0 (Fab/Manufacturing) & Top L4 (Leading AI Apps): NO BUBBLE.** Companies like TSMC, NVIDIA, major cloud providers (Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon), and top AI labs have real revenues and orders. Supply is tightly constrained by TSMC's disciplined capacity control and physical limits like power/land for data centers, preventing a supply glut. * **L1 (Memory): BATTLEGROUND.** Sky-high HBM margins could signal a new structural cycle or a classic "boom before bust." The oligopoly of three major players may enforce supply discipline, making this a high-stakes bet. * **L2 (Interconnect/Optical Modules): BUBBLE TERRITORY.** Companies like Lumentum and AAOI have seen stock surges (4-10x) far outpacing revenue growth. This hardware segment has lower physical barriers to expansion than fabs, allowing speculation. It mirrors the 2000 bubble's epicenter—optics. * **L3 (Infrastructure/"GPU Landlords"): VULNERABLE.** GPU leasing companies profit from the current compute shortage but own no long-term moat. Their business model relies on a temporary bottleneck that will ease as big tech expands and new tech (e.g., potential space-based data centers) emerges. * **L4 Long Tail (VC-backed Startups): STRONG BUBBLE SIGNALS.** VC funding concentration in AI is twice that of the 1999 peak. Many startups with little revenue use the valuation logic of successful giants to justify their own, creating high risk of a "valuation crunch" when funding dries up. **Critical Risks to Monitor:** 1. **GPU Depreciation & Accounting:** Companies extending the assumed useful life of GPUs artificially boost profits. The true economic life depends on future generational leaps from NVIDIA. 2. **"GPU Credit" & Off-Balance-Sheet Leverage:** Emerging structures where shell companies borrow to buy GPUs and lease them out (with chipmakers sometimes investing) move debt off major balance sheets. This echoes the "vendor financing" of 2000 and the securitization risks of 2008, though currently small-scale. 3. **TSMC Abandoning Caution:** If the primary supply bottleneck (TSMC's conservative capacity planning) breaks, runaway supply could trigger a bust. 4. **Algorithmic Efficiency Breakthrough:** A major leap in software efficiency could drastically reduce the need for raw compute hardware, undermining the investment thesis. **Conclusion:** The AI boom is expensive and has frothy areas, but its core is underpinned by real demand and physical supply constraints. The bubble risk is layered: most present in optical components, GPU leasing, and the long-tail startup ecosystem, while the foundational chip manufacturing and leading application layers remain relatively solid—for now.

marsbit18 min fa

Where the AI Bubble Really Is: Which Layer of Players Are Naked

marsbit18 min fa

Bitcoin's Decline Marks the Metamorphosis of Crypto

Bitcoin's decline signifies a structural transformation within the crypto industry. Its two traditional core functions are being usurped: AI has absorbed speculative capital that once flowed into Bitcoin, while dollar stablecoins have replaced it as the foundational on-chain currency. This decoupling is not a sign of crypto's demise but of its maturation. Projects are now valued based on fundamentals like revenue and user growth, independent of Bitcoin's price movements. Examples include the on-chain exchange Hyperliquid, with transaction volumes surpassing Coinbase, and the prediction market Polymarket, valued at $200 billion. Privacy has emerged as a critical new sector, with assets like Zcash surging and protocols like NEAR enabling private, cross-chain transfers without requiring users to hold a new token. The landscape is shifting toward a multi-chain ecosystem anchored by stablecoins. A new layer of infrastructure for cross-chain coordination, privacy, and AI-agent interaction is emerging to connect this fragmented world, a role once implicitly held by Bitcoin. The era where all altcoins moved in lockstep with Bitcoin is over. The industry's health should now be gauged by project fundamentals and the underlying infrastructure enabling private, dollar-settled, and interconnected crypto-economy.

marsbit26 min fa

Bitcoin's Decline Marks the Metamorphosis of Crypto

marsbit26 min fa

Standing in the Light: A Comprehensive Guide to the Optical Module and CPO Supply Chain

"Standing in the Light: Understanding the Optical Module and CPO Industry Chain" This article analyzes the critical role of optical communication technology, specifically optical modules and Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), as the "nervous system" for modern AI data centers. With exponential growth in AI computational demands (e.g., NVIDIA's Vera Rubin architecture), traditional electrical interconnects using copper cables face severe bottlenecks in bandwidth, power consumption, and signal integrity over distance. The core function of an optical module is to act as a "translator," converting electrical signals from chips into optical signals for transmission over fiber (and vice-versa). Key internal components include lasers, modulators, photodetectors, drivers, and DSP chips. The industry is currently transitioning from 800G to 1.6T modules. However, the future lies in CPO. This next-generation technology integrates the optical engine directly with the switch ASIC/XPU on the same package substrate, drastically reducing power consumption (by ~3.5x according to NVIDIA), overcoming bandwidth density limits, and minimizing signal attenuation compared to traditional pluggable modules. Key challenges for CPO include advanced packaging capacity (dominated by TSMC), thermal management, repairability, and standardization. The article details the broader technology landscape, including Near-Packaged Optics (NPO, a pragmatic intermediate step), Linear-drive Pluggable Optics (LPO), Optical I/O (OIO for chip-level integration), and Optical Circuit Switches (OCS). A comprehensive CPO industry chain is mapped, highlighting shifting power dynamics: * **Architecture Definers:** NVIDIA, Broadcom, and Marvell now hold greater influence. * **Advanced Packaging & Manufacturing:** TSMC is central; Fabrinet is a key EMS player. * **Lasers ("The Heart"):** A strategic bottleneck. EML lasers are led by Lumentum and Coherent (both receiving major NVIDIA investments). CW lasers, favored for CPO/silicon photonics, see strong Chinese players like Source Photonics and Sicoya. * **Silicon Photonics Chips:** The mainstream path for CPO engines, with key players like Broadcom, Intel, Marvell, and China's Accelink. * **Fiber Connectivity Components:** A major new, high-growth market created by CPO, including Fiber Array Units (FAU), Polarization-Maintaining Fiber (PMF), and MPO connectors. Companies like Tianfu Communication and US Conec are leaders. * **Fiber & Cable:** Experiencing a super-cycle (e.g., Corning, Yangtze Optical Fiber). * **PCB/Substrates:** Requiring advanced materials (e.g., Shengyi Tech). * **DSP & SerDes:** Functions are integrated into switch ASICs in the CPO era (e.g., Broadcom, Astera Labs). * **Optical Module Makers:** Transitioning from standalone module suppliers to providers of optical engines and NPO/LPO solutions while riding the current pluggable boom (e.g., Zhongji Innolight, Eoptolink). The investment timeline is segmented: Short-term (2026-2027) features the "last feast" for pluggable modules and CPO's initial rollout. Medium-term (2027-2029) will see CPO expand and NPO peak. Long-term (2029-2032+) involves CPO/OIO penetration into intra-rack scaling. In conclusion, optical interconnects are fundamental to AI infrastructure. The competitive landscape sees US firms leading in architecture and high-end chips, TSMC in advanced packaging, and Chinese firms holding strong positions in modules, connectivity components, CW lasers, and fiber/cable. The future belongs to companies that can navigate the technological shift from "selling shovels" (modules) to "building highways" (CPO/OIO infrastructure).

marsbit27 min fa

Standing in the Light: A Comprehensive Guide to the Optical Module and CPO Supply Chain

marsbit27 min fa

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片