Bitcoin Whales Haven’t Made Their Exit Yet – Is The Bull Cycle Still Intact?

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After suffering a steep 30% correction that took prices below $75,000, Bitcoin is showing signs of strength once again. The broader crypto market joined BTC in a sharp rebound following a key macro development: US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China, which now faces a 145% tariff. This easing of trade war fears brought some much-needed relief across risk assets.

Despite the volatility, Bitcoin’s resilience is gaining attention. According to insights from CryptoQuant, whales—large holders excluding entities like exchanges and mining pools—have not exited their positions. In fact, current on-chain data shows accumulation activity similar to what was observed during the August–September 2023 sideways market phase. This pattern historically reflects long-term conviction and has often preceded major rallies.

While short-term uncertainty remains, the continued presence of whale accumulation supports the idea that this correction is part of a broader bullish cycle rather than a structural breakdown. With prices stabilizing and sentiment slowly improving, Bitcoin now faces a critical test to reclaim higher levels and potentially resume its upward trajectory.

Bitcoin Resilient As Key Accumulation Suggests Bull Cycle Intact

Bitcoin remains strong after reclaiming the $80,000 level, and many analysts believe the worst part of the correction is over. However, global tensions—especially those tied to escalating U.S. tariffs—continue to pressure financial markets, with fears of a looming global recession growing. Despite this backdrop, Bitcoin has shown resilience and is now approaching a critical daily resistance near $88,700.

The recent 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for all nations except China, which still faces a 145% tariff, has provided some short-term relief. But lasting recovery depends on whether the US and China can reach a broader agreement.

Meanwhile, on-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals a compelling trend: Bitcoin whales haven’t made their exit. These whales, excluding exchanges and mining pools, offer a clearer view of real trading behavior and accumulation patterns. Historically, their movements have closely mirrored price action.

At the cycle peak last year, whale exits were marked by consistent profit-taking. This time, however, they are accumulating again, echoing patterns seen in the August–September 2023 sideways market. Unlike the 2020 COVID crash, which whales anticipated with early exits, they are holding firm during this correction.

This suggests the current downturn is not a structural crisis but a sharp pullback in a broader bull cycle. If this manufactured crisis resolves, a new wave of liquidity—possibly driven by QE from both the Fed and China—could favor assets like gold and Bitcoin. For now, whale conviction remains a bullish signal.

BTC Price Near Key Moving Averages

Bitcoin is trading at $83,600, now just 5% away from the 200-day moving average (MA) around $87,100. This technical level is a crucial milestone for bulls aiming to confirm a reversal and reestablish a long-term uptrend. To build a solid bullish case, BTC must not only hold above the $81,000 support zone but also reclaim the $85,000 level, which aligns closely with the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).

Reclaiming these moving averages would signal a potential shift in trend, helping reinforce short-term momentum and restoring confidence across the market. The price action over the past week has shown signs of strength, but technical validation through these averages is essential before a true breakout can unfold.

However, downside risks remain. If Bitcoin fails to hold the $81,000–$80,000 range, selling pressure could escalate quickly. A breakdown below this region would likely open the door to a retest of the $75,000 level, where demand could be tested again.

With macroeconomic tensions still weighing on investor sentiment, BTC is at a critical inflection point. The coming days will determine whether bulls can solidify control—or if another correction leg is on the horizon.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView 

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