7*24

Hot topic

Market

Activities

On March 20, Chloe, a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, analyzed the current macro variables impacting the cryptocurrency market. The logic has shifted from 'loose expectations driving risk appetite' to a dual pressure of 'high interest rates lasting longer + energy shocks raising inflation tail risks.' Although the Federal Reserve maintains a median forecast for one rate cut this year, the core message conveyed by Powell is clear: if inflation does not show substantial decline, further rate cuts should not be expected. Short-term U.S. Treasury yields have risen, indicating that the market is correcting overly optimistic rate cut expectations. For the cryptocurrency market, high beta altcoins, AI concept coins, and purely narrative-driven assets are likely to be more impacted. Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East is pushing up oil prices, renewing the risk of 'secondary inflation.' The Bank of Japan remains on hold, but the direction for future rate hikes has not changed. In the coming weeks, two key variables need to be monitored: whether U.S. inflation and employment data reinforce the expectation of 'higher rates for longer,' and whether the Bank of Japan signals a rate hike around April. If both resonate hawkishly, the cryptocurrency market is likely to remain in a phase characterized by 'high volatility, heavy structure, and light beta.' From a market observation perspective, the current environment may favor more defensive allocation strategies. BTC, with its liquidity, market consensus, and some safe-haven attributes amidst macro uncertainty, is worth watching for relative performance; ETH's movement depends more on on-chain activity, ETF funding, and risk appetite recovery; while most altcoins face some valuation compression pressure. Overall, the market is transitioning from 'expectations of easing' to 'readjusting to restrictive rates and geopolitical shocks,' with the short-term focus not on broad risk expansion, but rather on waiting for a repricing window after the macro path becomes clearer.

[HTX DeepThink: Clear Hawkish Signals from the Federal Reserve, Altcoins and Narrative Assets Most Affected]On March 20, Chloe, a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, analyzed the current macro variables impacting the cryptocurrency market. The logic has shifted from 'loose expectations driving risk appetite' to a dual pressure of 'high interest rates lasting longer + energy shocks raising inflation tail risks.' Although the Federal Reserve maintains a median forecast for one rate cut this year, the core message conveyed by Powell is clear: if inflation does not show substantial decline, further rate cuts should not be expected. Short-term U.S. Treasury yields have risen, indicating that the market is correcting overly optimistic rate cut expectations. For the cryptocurrency market, high beta altcoins, AI concept coins, and purely narrative-driven assets are likely to be more impacted. Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East is pushing up oil prices, renewing the risk of 'secondary inflation.' The Bank of Japan remains on hold, but the direction for future rate hikes has not changed. In the coming weeks, two key variables need to be monitored: whether U.S. inflation and employment data reinforce the expectation of 'higher rates for longer,' and whether the Bank of Japan signals a rate hike around April. If both resonate hawkishly, the cryptocurrency market is likely to remain in a phase characterized by 'high volatility, heavy structure, and light beta.' From a market observation perspective, the current environment may favor more defensive allocation strategies. BTC, with its liquidity, market consensus, and some safe-haven attributes amidst macro uncertainty, is worth watching for relative performance; ETH's movement depends more on on-chain activity, ETF funding, and risk appetite recovery; while most altcoins face some valuation compression pressure. Overall, the market is transitioning from 'expectations of easing' to 'readjusting to restrictive rates and geopolitical shocks,' with the short-term focus not on broad risk expansion, but rather on waiting for a repricing window after the macro path becomes clearer.

HTX DeepThink: Clear Hawkish Signals from the Federal Reserve, Altcoins and Narrative Assets Most Affected

On March 20, according to CoinDesk, major economies announced joint actions on Friday to stabilize energy markets. Bitcoin rebounded as oil prices fell, briefly rising to $70,800, an increase of over 1% for the day, extending its recovery from the previous overnight low below $68,900. Major cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, XRP, and SOL saw gains of less than 1%, significantly underperforming Bitcoin. Regarding oil prices, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan jointly issued a statement announcing measures to stabilize energy markets and coordinated actions to ensure the safety of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The six countries, in a joint statement released by the office of UK Prime Minister Starmer, condemned Iran's attacks and urged them to cease immediately. Influenced by this, WTI crude oil fell by nearly 2% to $93.80 per barrel, with Brent crude experiencing a similar decline. Earlier this week, US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the US might soon lift sanctions on Iranian oil tankers and is considering releasing strategic petroleum reserves. However, the brief dip in oil prices has not eliminated market uncertainty. Mott Capital Management indicated that WTI is currently holding at a significant support level, coinciding with previous highs and short-term trends. As long as oil prices remain above this support, an upward bias may continue, and the structure of options market positions suggests further upside potential for oil prices. In the stock market, the S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average on Thursday for the first time since May of last year, indicating a shift in momentum towards bearishness. If risk aversion in the stock market intensifies, it could further drag down cryptocurrencies and broader financial markets.

[Analysis: Nations Collaborate to Stabilize Energy Markets, Oil Prices Dip, Bitcoin Recovers Amid Lingering Uncertainty]On March 20, according to CoinDesk, major economies announced joint actions on Friday to stabilize energy markets. Bitcoin rebounded as oil prices fell, briefly rising to $70,800, an increase of over 1% for the day, extending its recovery from the previous overnight low below $68,900. Major cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, XRP, and SOL saw gains of less than 1%, significantly underperforming Bitcoin. Regarding oil prices, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan jointly issued a statement announcing measures to stabilize energy markets and coordinated actions to ensure the safety of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The six countries, in a joint statement released by the office of UK Prime Minister Starmer, condemned Iran's attacks and urged them to cease immediately. Influenced by this, WTI crude oil fell by nearly 2% to $93.80 per barrel, with Brent crude experiencing a similar decline. Earlier this week, US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the US might soon lift sanctions on Iranian oil tankers and is considering releasing strategic petroleum reserves. However, the brief dip in oil prices has not eliminated market uncertainty. Mott Capital Management indicated that WTI is currently holding at a significant support level, coinciding with previous highs and short-term trends. As long as oil prices remain above this support, an upward bias may continue, and the structure of options market positions suggests further upside potential for oil prices. In the stock market, the S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average on Thursday for the first time since May of last year, indicating a shift in momentum towards bearishness. If risk aversion in the stock market intensifies, it could further drag down cryptocurrencies and broader financial markets.

Analysis: Nations Collaborate to Stabilize Energy Markets, Oil Prices Dip, Bitcoin Recovers Amid Lingering Uncertainty

On March 20, ECB Governing Council member Nagel stated that if the conflict in Iran leads to further intensification of price pressures, the European Central Bank will need to consider raising interest rates next month. (Jin Shi)

[ECB's Nagel: Rate Hike Consideration Next Month If Iran Conflict Intensifies Price Pressures]On March 20, ECB Governing Council member Nagel stated that if the conflict in Iran leads to further intensification of price pressures, the European Central Bank will need to consider raising interest rates next month. (Jin Shi)

ECB's Nagel: Rate Hike Consideration Next Month If Iran Conflict Intensifies Price Pressures

On March 20th, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Paul Atkins released the "Regulation Crypto Assets" framework at the "SEC Speaks" conference. This marks a shift from "enforcement-driven regulation" towards a clear rule-based system. The framework categorizes digital assets, identifying Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana as "digital commodities," primarily regulated by the CFTC. The SEC will focus on "digital securities," which are tokens with clear rights to profits or assets.

Furthermore, the framework introduces a "token safe harbor" mechanism, allowing projects to develop and raise funds under simplified disclosure requirements for up to three years. The SEC has also signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the CFTC to reduce duplicate regulation and clarify responsibilities.

[SEC Chair Unveils Crypto Asset Regulatory Framework, Delineating Digital Commodities and Securities]On March 20th, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Paul Atkins released the "Regulation Crypto Assets" framework at the "SEC Speaks" conference. This marks a shift from "enforcement-driven regulation" towards a clear rule-based system. The framework categorizes digital assets, identifying Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana as "digital commodities," primarily regulated by the CFTC. The SEC will focus on "digital securities," which are tokens with clear rights to profits or assets.

Furthermore, the framework introduces a "token safe harbor" mechanism, allowing projects to develop and raise funds under simplified disclosure requirements for up to three years. The SEC has also signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the CFTC to reduce duplicate regulation and clarify responsibilities.

SEC Chair Unveils Crypto Asset Regulatory Framework, Delineating Digital Commodities and Securities

On March 20, Morgan Stanley stated that it expects the UK central bank to maintain interest rates unchanged in 2026, revising its previous forecast of rate cuts in April and November of this year, followed by another cut in February 2027. (Jin Shi)

[Morgan Stanley: UK Central Bank Expected to Keep Interest Rates Unchanged in 2026]On March 20, Morgan Stanley stated that it expects the UK central bank to maintain interest rates unchanged in 2026, revising its previous forecast of rate cuts in April and November of this year, followed by another cut in February 2027. (Jin Shi)

Morgan Stanley: UK Central Bank Expected to Keep Interest Rates Unchanged in 2026

According to monitoring by 1M AI News, xAI team member Jaime Alonso announced his departure on X, stating that today is his last day at xAI. In his tweet, he mentioned that he contributed to the development of the xAI API, Grok.com, and several intermediate products, and he specifically thanked co-founder Toby Pohlen and the London team he led. Pohlen himself announced his departure from xAI on February 27; he was one of the 12 founding members of xAI, led the London team, and was involved in the development of the first version of Grok. In response to Jaime's farewell tweet, he commented, 'Grok quite literally wouldn't exist without you.'

[Continued Turmoil at xAI as Engineer Involved in Grok.com and API Announces Departure]According to monitoring by 1M AI News, xAI team member Jaime Alonso announced his departure on X, stating that today is his last day at xAI. In his tweet, he mentioned that he contributed to the development of the xAI API, Grok.com, and several intermediate products, and he specifically thanked co-founder Toby Pohlen and the London team he led. Pohlen himself announced his departure from xAI on February 27; he was one of the 12 founding members of xAI, led the London team, and was involved in the development of the first version of Grok. In response to Jaime's farewell tweet, he commented, 'Grok quite literally wouldn't exist without you.'

Continued Turmoil at xAI as Engineer Involved in Grok.com and API Announces Departure

On March 20, Morgan Stanley predicted that the European Central Bank (ECB) would raise interest rates by 25 basis points in both June and September 2026, while previous forecasts indicated that rates would remain unchanged this year. In light of slowing growth, we believe the ECB is likely to cut rates again in June and September 2027, bringing rates down to 2% and returning them to a neutral range. (Jinshi)

[Morgan Stanley: ECB Expected to Raise Rates by 25 Basis Points in June and September 2026]On March 20, Morgan Stanley predicted that the European Central Bank (ECB) would raise interest rates by 25 basis points in both June and September 2026, while previous forecasts indicated that rates would remain unchanged this year. In light of slowing growth, we believe the ECB is likely to cut rates again in June and September 2027, bringing rates down to 2% and returning them to a neutral range. (Jinshi)

Morgan Stanley: ECB Expected to Raise Rates by 25 Basis Points in June and September 2026

On March 20, Barclays stated that it expects the European Central Bank to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in both April and June 2026, contrary to previous forecasts which anticipated no change in rates. (Jin Shi)

[Barclays: ECB Expected to Raise Rates by 25 Basis Points in April and June 2026]On March 20, Barclays stated that it expects the European Central Bank to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in both April and June 2026, contrary to previous forecasts which anticipated no change in rates. (Jin Shi)

Barclays: ECB Expected to Raise Rates by 25 Basis Points in April and June 2026

On March 20, according to Lookonchain monitoring, a whale, identified as 0xc9d, had accumulated 742.8 WBTC over the past year at an average price of approximately $89,117, with a total transaction amount of about $66.2 million. The whale has now sold all of these WBTC at a price of approximately $70,259, resulting in a loss of about $14 million.

[Whale Sells 742.8 WBTC, Incurring $14 Million Loss]On March 20, according to Lookonchain monitoring, a whale, identified as 0xc9d, had accumulated 742.8 WBTC over the past year at an average price of approximately $89,117, with a total transaction amount of about $66.2 million. The whale has now sold all of these WBTC at a price of approximately $70,259, resulting in a loss of about $14 million.

Whale Sells 742.8 WBTC, Incurring $14 Million Loss

Криптовалютный аналитик Вилли Ву написал в Твиттере: «Дно биткоина уже близко в соответствии с моделью Max Pain. Исторически цена BTC достигает дна макроцикла, когда 58%-61% монет находятся "под водой" (оранжевый цвет). Зеленая штриховка – это монеты, запертые в GBTC Trust».

Detail

【Криптовалютный аналитик Вилли Ву прогнозирует, что биткоин практически достиг дна】Криптовалютный аналитик Вилли Ву написал в Твиттере: «Дно биткоина уже близко в соответствии с моделью Max Pain. Исторически цена BTC достигает дна макроцикла, когда 58%-61% монет находятся "под водой" (оранжевый цвет). Зеленая штриховка – это монеты, запертые в GBTC Trust».

Криптовалютный аналитик Вилли Ву прогнозирует, что биткоин практически достиг дна

Penafian：Konten diatas tidak merepresentasikan posisi HTX.，HTX tidak memberikan rekomendasi perdagangan apa pun.。

Artikel Terkait

Semua Komentar0TerkiniHangat

Topik Trending

Artikel Terkait